As Rick Perry begins to flirt with front-runner status for the GOP nomination, Palin last night conveyed her view that there remains room for more candidates. True, but perhaps not for long and Perry may now somewhat tenuously control his own destiny.
I expect Palin to effectively throw down the gaunlet for the Tea Party and grassroots in Perry's direction this weekend. I doubt he wants to pick it up, which is what actually initiates a contest, not the act of throwing one down. His real challenge will come in the form of the upcoming debates and potentially any back channel communications with Palin.
The image at right is of a fellow having Sarah Palin's autograph inked after she had just signed his arm, perhaps last night. Romney would kill for a family member that passionate about his campaign and Rick Perry doesn't want to face an army of them, regardless of its current size and deployment. And it is, to some extent, deployed and spoiling for a fight. That they didn't first submit a resume through Karl Rove for his approval, nor even seek it in general first, is immaterial to the challenge they would represent for Perry. He doesn't want to get that "GameOn" if he can avoid it.
For her part, Palin may factor in Perry's standing in her own decision-making process. But it will not be determinant, no matter how much the media and some Right-side political hacks will spin it. I'd guess she wants to determine just how serious any of the current GOP nominees, especially Perry, are committed to fighting for genuinely conservative government reforms, versus how much they will talk the talk but not walk the walk if elected, or indulge their appetite for crony capitalism: Rick Perry's Crony Capitalism Problem Is Extremely Troubling.
If she opts to run, it will be because she hasn't heard what she believes she needs to in the upcoming debates, and/or doesn't trust Perry to bear the standard. Though conservative, his record generates enough concerns to fuel reasonable doubt. Those doubts would exist without Sarah Palin and are not unusual for any previous GOP nominee, but Palin provides a rare focal point for them, now bolstered by increased disdain for politics as usual across the GOP base. What Palin represents, Perry must deal with as a hurdle on his way to a prospective nomination. Any notion that Palin is "sending messages" is nonsense in the sense that, no, she's simply stating the case and saying precisely what she means, as she usually does underneath the muck that all too often passes for political analysis today.
This is grand political theater with serious ramifications for political junkies and should provide a welcome buzz for all after a relatively dry summer. The streets have been so dry, even veteran national bloggers were tempted to start mainlining insignificant State House races for some relief. Enjoy it. We'll all be so strung and burned out by next November, we'll be rehabbing on video games, or perhaps PoGo, if one's mind is completely shot by then.
Aides have suggested that Palin will not make her intentions clear on Saturday and what she said Friday night did nothing to clarify the picture. Asked about the current field of candidates, she said she was happy with them, but added, “I think there’s room for more, though, because spirited debate and more competition will allow an even better discourse and more rigorous discourse that the public deserves.”
With that, she and her husband Todd were swallowed up by the crowd inside the restaurant. For more than half an hour, she posed for photographs, signed autographs and chatted with supporters who had been brought together by the group Conservatives4Palin.
As for Perry, this is his moment, perhaps even more so than Palin's, make no mistake. He doesn't have to close the deal in the upcoming debates. But the opportunity exists. Not only could he all but vanquish any existing minor opposition, he can take it right to Romney and even perhaps all but capture the nomination across three debates: Sept 7th, 12th and 22nd.
His performance, along with other factors, will likely significantly impact Palin's final decision-making, provided she hasn't found reason to have written him off for supporting already. The Perry camp is fond of making all too much of any presumed locked-in Palin support, which is not to say that it might not ultimately emerge. But the relationship is not nearly as firm as it is often portrayed by the media. If her recent statement about there still being room for more candidates doesn't finally make that abundantly clear, people are simply choosing to ignore it. It's always been the case.
Sarah Palin has good reason to have concerns about Rick Perry, as do all serious conservatives; however, he is by far the most acceptable nominee of all active candidates when measured across all criteria. The key now is, does Palin, or does anyone else get in? For Perry, even if he is unable to forestall any additional challenge, or challenges, he is in a position to significantly firm up his own position against any current, or future challenges. Consequently, no matter how many eyes look toward Palin in Iowa and New Hampshire this weekend, what they see in Perry during the next three GOP debates are ultimately the more significant, barring an actual announcement from Sarah Palin - not anticipated before the end of September, as she has stated.
