Riehl World View

Reuters Links Soros Money, Anti-Capitalist Group To Wall Street Protests

Obama, Soros, Adbusters - throw in a senior Obama advisor at  ground level - well, you get the drift. As I've said before, this is the beginning of Re-elect Obama 2012. Talk about CREEP, blah.

There has been much speculation over who is financing the disparate protest, which has spread to cities across America and lasted nearly four weeks. One name that keeps coming up is investor George Soros, who in September debuted in the top 10 list of wealthiest Americans. Conservative critics contend the movement is a Trojan horse for a secret Soros agenda.

Soros and the protesters deny any connection. But Reuters did find indirect financial links between Soros and Adbusters, an anti-capitalist group in Canada which started the protests with an inventive marketing campaign aimed at sparking an Arab Spring type uprising against Wall Street. Moreover, Soros and the protesters share some ideological ground.

Why Conservatives Should Embrace The Boehner Plan

No, Speaker Boehner's plan isn't perfect. He never said it would be. But as much as I like and appreciate Rep. Jordan and the Republican Study Committee, valid points like this only serve as a distraction right now. This isn't the time to play small ball. A Democrat-controlled Senate and White House will never pass the kind of serious plan we want as Conservatives.

MT @EmilyMiller: Rep. Jim Jordan says the Boehner debt ceiling plan only cuts spending by $7 billion in 2012 (only enforceable cuts).

Take the time to read Jim Pethokoukis's item on the plan. The real key is, Boehner's plan gives Conservatives precisely what they need and would force Obama to swallow the one thing he absolutely does not want - for additional discussions around US debt to drive the general election in 2012.

As currently situated, Congress, due to the Senate, and the White House simply will not advance fiscally conservative principles. Only a Republican Washington has any hope of doing that. Two years on from 2010, in 2012, we will still be in the middle of the beginning of this potentially decade long fight. Conservatives need to understand that and dig in for the long haul if they truly want to turn things around in Washington.

I don't like playing politics with policy; however, we don't have the players we need in the game at this point. We must elect more conservatives. Boehner's plan accomplishes some genuine good and, perhaps more importantly, empowers us to do what we absolutely must do in the year ahead.

On a recent conference call with the House, Speaker Boehner talked about the need to be united. At this point, that call should expand to the conservative base. That all this is happening as Obama's own national base of support is crumbling makes it even more critical.

With current control of only one House of Congress, we are going to need a united front if we're to have any hope of advancing the Boehner plan. The future of America is at stake; it serves no good purpose for Conservatives to simply stand on the sidelines and stomp our feet. We need to understand that the game must extend into the 2012 election, whether we like it, or not, and get in the game behind the House plan, as opposed to sitting bitching on the sidelines because we didn't get everything we want.

That was never going to happen given the current political configuration in Washington. If we don't focus on changing that in 2012, we will never be able to achieve the kind of reforms we want. In that sense, Boehner's plan is a solid first step and provides a solid game plan for 2012 when much more significant aspects of this long-term contest will be on the line.

... the Boehner plan is not only far better than the Reid plan, it is a pretty darn good plan in and of itself.

Boehner, on the other hand, would keep the debt cutting process going and more likely result in substantive spending cuts of $3 trillion, nearly three times the Reid plan. (And if you tack on the Reid defense cuts, you suddenly have a $4 trillion plan, including interest savings. The raters would like that.) I don’t think spending hawks should fear the Boehner debt commission if it has real teeth and doesn’t create a trigger for higher taxes.

And after that, both parties can use the upcoming election season to make their respective cases to the American public for sweeping entitlement and tax reform. I think Boehner’s plan will pass the House and become the core of the budget bill that actually gets signed by Obama. And the sooner, the better.

Jobless claims rise "Unexpectedly"

It's gotten so bad, Reuters is struggling to come up with new ways to say unexpectedly. More from Bloomberg.

Jobless claims rise above expectations

(Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, pointing to a labor market that is struggling to regain momentum.

Recovery Summer 2: Home Sales "Unexpectedly" Decline To 7 Month Low

Well, what did they expect at this point?

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly declined in June to a seven-month low as the industry struggled to overcome rising unemployment and foreclosures.

Purchases dropped 0.8 percent to a 4.77 million pace, data from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. The median projection in a Bloomberg News survey called for a gain to 4.9 million. Inventories increased, more contracts were canceled and 30 percent of transactions last month were of distressed dwellings, the figures showed.

This, apparently. So much for Recovery Summer 2.

Sales of existing homes slipped in June to a seven-month low, with a trade group attributing the weak economy and a spike in cancellations for the surprise downturn. The National Association of Realtors on Wednesday reported sales of single-family existing homes fell 0.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.77 million from 4.81 million in May. Economists polled by MarketWatch had anticipated a 4.9 million rate of sales. The data caught economists by surprise in part because pending homes sales had gained 8.2% in May. Lawrence Yun, the chief economist of the NAR, said "a very weak economy [led] to weak sales," and cancellations jumped to 16% from just 4% in May.

Charting America's Ominous History Of Debt Ceiling Increases

In a conversation with a Hill staffer last night, he said his research indicated that Congress has never denied a debt ceiling increase request from a President. Unfortunately, that's the problem, not a rationale for simply approving yet another one. If we see the type of debt ceiling increase Obama wants, it will likely surpass 100% of GDP for the first time since World War II. Also, the increases appear to be driven more by politics and politicians, than economic, or world events. Or, as David Indiviglio at the Atlantic calls it - whimsical. See the two charts below for some perspective.

You can see the ceiling is a sort of step function, as it increases based on Washington's whims, not a natural mechanism. This chart also shows that increases in the debt ceiling are quite common. Over the 94-year period, the debt ceiling has been revised 102 times.

The debt ceiling was first set in September 1917. At that time, Congress authorized the issuance of about $7.5 billion in U.S. bonds and another $4 billion in certificates of indebtedness, under the Second Liberty Bond Act. How much was $11.5 billion dollars back then if you account for inflation? In March 2011 dollars, it would be $193.2 billion. Currently, the debt limit is set at $14.3 trillion -- so inflation doesn't tell the whole story! To be sure, Washington's love affair with debt has grown.

 

Why The McConnell Plan Is A Loser For The GOP

You can read down into the details of McConnell's plan to avoid voting to raise the debt ceiling via Philip Klein. Once again, steeped in Beltway politics, the GOP has out thought itself and will be a loser on this one, while fooling themselves into believing they've actually won something.

To them, three meaningless dog and pony shows in stages running into election 2012 is a win because Obama, not the Congress, will be raising the debt limit. Nonsense. What they will be doing is abrogating their responsibility and playing politics, to boot.

It is Obama, not the GOP, that is holding to his principles. Consequently, Obama comes off looking strong, while the GOP looks weak. And those three, or however many, dog and pony shows? They are genuinely meaningless. If they were going to cave to Obama - and that is precisely what they will be doing, they could have at least done that straight up in a principled manner. Instead, they will be seen as conniving, forcing the nation to endure otherwise meaningless political theater time and again as all this silliness plays out. Principled behavior, even in defeat, appears to be too much to ask from today's GOP leadership.

If you want to know how truly stupid and useless is today's Republican Party, just sum it up - it's the simple truth. They caved on their self-professed principles, look weak in comparison to Obama, while doing precisely the type of thing Americans loathe - playing politics and engaging in meaningless theatrics on issues of national import. And to them, all that constitutes a smart move and adds up to a win.

What it tells us is the establisment GOP is run by a bunch of losers. Today's GOP is worse than useless, it's an enabler and a willing partner of the Democrats in Big Government Washington that voters threw out in droves as recently as 2010. The GOP has all but squandered any momentum they might have enjoyed from last year. By 2012, voters will be throwing some of them out, too.

 And they will deserve it.

Understanding Newt Gingrich's Statement On Ryan's Plan

Yesterday, Rush Limbaugh said he couldn't explain Newt Gingrich's statement on the Ryan plan, particularly as regards MediCare - calling it inexplicable (video). I believe I can explain it, which is not the same as defending it. Glenn offers up a few disapproving links today. No doubt there are many.

Here's the gist of Newt's comments. Gingrich remains a problematic mix of academic meets politician. That mix does not make for good leadership. The anti-social engineering comment is actually designed to make him look safe, as in, I don't believe in forcing change from Washington, be it from the Left, or the Right. See how cuddly I am?

In Gingrich's view, when it comes to health care reform, there needs to be this large national discussion. At end, everyone sings Kumbaya and comes together on a plan - no doubt, Newt's, because he fancies himself the smartest guy in the room. In essence, he wants to educate America on its way to health care reform, not impose it. Unfortunately, while that may sound nice, it's impractical and isn't really leadership.

As for him sticking with mandatory coverage, that's part political and part intellectual. He knows having everyone in the pool is one way of cost sharing and has previously supported it. Politically, he doesn't want to be called out for flip-flopping, so he's staying with it, likely also seeing it as expeditious. Of course, that would seem to contradict his claim of not dictating terms from D.C. The way he gets around that in his mind is by thinking of it as an educational process, not a legislative one. If everyone agrees everyone needs to be in this, or that, insurance pool - and joins it, it's not really a mandate it, right ... right??? Yeah, that's going to happen - in the classroom, perhaps - just not the real world.

Talk about Newt's baggage all you want, in the end, his intellect may be the best argument for his making a very poor President. He invariably gets himself caught up in too much complexity, while tripping over himself trying to explain it. He's also prone to bad finger in the wind, let's all get along, decision-making, like supporting Global Warming efforts on a couch with Pelosi and endorsing Dede Scozzafava in NY 23.

Gingrich is far better suited to teach a course, or seminar, or give a lecture on government, than he is qualified to run one. His ego may not permit him to accept that for now. Unfortunately for him, the reaction to him on the campaign trail will. We can expect more of this until he drops out.

White House hopeful Newt Gingrich called the House Republican plan for Medicare "right-wing social engineering," injecting a discordant GOP voice into the party's efforts to reshape both entitlements and the broader budget debate.

In the same interview Sunday, on NBC's "Meet the Press," Mr. Gingrich backed a requirement that all Americans buy health insurance, complicating a Republican line of attack on President Barack Obama's health law.

The former House speaker's decision to stick with his previous support for an individual mandate comes days after former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney defended the health revamp he championed as governor, which includes a mandate.

Be Prepared, Boehner Will Cave Quickly On Debt Ceiling Vote

Perhaps the most annoying statement in this Politico item about Wall Street pressuring Boehner on the debt limit is the last sentence from my excerpt:  "Many executives on Wall Street believe Washington is playing an enormously dangerous game with what is typically a non-controversial vote."

Were it you, or me, or a private business, this would equate to any real estate holdings being under-water, having no money in the bank with any credit cards maxed out. Not only would a decision to take on more debt be difficult, or controversial, assuming you even could, one might just as easily conclude it's time to pay the piper and stop digging such a huge hole.

But, as with TARP, the Stimulus and everything else we've seen, they are going to roll out the "too big to fail" argument and ram this through. Obviously, the groundwork is being done for it, so be prepared. We may yet find out nothing is too big to fail when the whole mess comes tumbling down around a bunch of politicians who will manage to not feel much of a financial pinch themselves if it does. Yet, they are the same people who caused this through their irresponsible actions in the name of power and politics over the years.

Republicans are growing increasingly concerned about the impact a bruising fight over raising the nation’s $14.29 trillion debt ceiling could have on U.S. financial markets.

House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) has had conversations with top Wall Street executives, asking how close Congress could push to the debt limit deadline without sending interests rates soaring and causing stock prices to go lower, people familiar with the matter said. Boehner spokesman Michael Steel said Tuesday night that he was not aware of any such conversations.

Treasury could then implement emergency measures to continuing making interest payments on existing debut until around July 8. After that, the U.S. risks going into default, an unthinkable idea to many economists and market participants who say such an event could drive scores of large banks into failure, send interest rates skyrocketing as foreign investors abandon U.S. securities and crush the already slow-going economic recovery.
 
Republicans and even some fiscally conservative Democrats want to use the debt limit fight as leverage to wring more significant spending cuts out of the White House. Politicians of all stripes are worried about how independents will react to a vote — or multiple stop-gap votes — to raise the debt ceiling. Many executives on Wall Street believe Washington is playing an enormously dangerous game with what is typically a non-controversial vote.

Change: Home sales dive, prices near 9-year low

Obama is rumoured to have said, Hey, what's the big deal? The White House isn't worth all that much these days, either! heh

(Reuters) - Sales of previously owned U.S. homes plunged in February and prices hit their lowest level in nearly nine years, implying a housing market recovery was still a long way off. The National Association of Realtors said on Monday sales fell 9.6 percent month over month to an annual rate of 4.88 million units, snapping three straight months of gains. The percentage decline was the largest since July.

DeMint on Omnibus bill: We're trying to end this culture of pork and wasteful spending

- Jennifer of Cubachi

Should a bill that will take two days to print and an estimated 50 hours to read on the Senate floor be passed? Of course not.

As DeMint told Greta Van Sustren last night, "We're trying to end this culture of pork and wasteful spending."

His new tactic may just do the trick.