Riehl World View

Avian Flu - H5N1

Can you say Canada? I knew that you could. Hopefully it's another strain.

TORONTO (AP) - Nearly three dozen wild ducks have tested positive for the H5 bird flu virus in Canada, officials reported Monday, but they said it was unlikely to be the strain blamed for more than 60 human deaths in Southeast Asia.

Dr. Jim Clark of the Canadian Food Inspection Agency said it would take at least a week to determine whether the flu found in 33 ducks from the provinces of Quebec and Manitoba was the deadly H5N1 strain that has ravaged Asian poultry farms.

H5N1 Reaches Britain

Along with a host of other countries, as you may know. Including Taiwan.

The British government said Sunday that a strain of bird flu that killed a parrot in quarantine is the deadly H5N1 strain that has plagued Asia and recently spread to Europe.

Avian Flu H5N1 Update

Troubling revelation, one way or another. If we see one bug like these, eventually we'll see others - even if this one doesn't spread. Yes, I have seen the comments about panic, but the fact is they have been talking about the emergence of bugs like this for years. And it's only going to get worse, at least in part because of the development going on in new areas of the world where man has never set foot before.

Webster observed, "This [H5N1] virus spreads outside the lungs to the central nervous system ... This is the first influenza virus we've seen that does this in a mammal."

Richard at Hyscience is a Ph. D. in a relevant field. His first post on this topic is over a year old and he updated again just yesterday.

The current H5N1 pandemic, which began in December, 2003 has generated at least 9 familial clusters of cases, resulting in 11 likely human to human transmissions, and 8 of the 11 have died ...

You can learn a great deal reading silly bloggers with significant backgrounds or special intelligence. As for me, I'm just the news boy / nut. And happy my lot, at that.

1.9 Million Projected Dead In Government Report

Well, that's reassuring. Let's see, if I take the total population and divide by .... times my age and any risk factors. Eh, why worry - I've never even won the lottery! ; )

Seriously, wouldn't a worst case scenario be like 1 in 150, or something?

A super-flu could kill up to 1.9 million Americans, according to a draft of the government's plan to fight a worldwide epidemic.

Officials are rewriting that plan to designate not just who cares for the sick but who will keep the country running amid the chaos, said an influenza specialist who is advising the government on those decisions.

In a best-case scenario, about 200,000 people might die.

But if the next pandemic resembles the birdlike 1918 Spanish flu, as many as 1.9 million could die, Osterholm said. Millions more would be ill, overwhelming hospitals.

Flu Pandemic Warning Very High

Maybe I'm about half a conspiracy nut. I don't go crazy over everything I see and hear. But I'm always leery of government and how they handle information - just can't get past the idea of thinking they share or don't share information for other than obvious reasons.

So, naturally, I'm getting real leery about how much they are beating this drum. Is it simply being prudent? Or do they already know something maybe we don't? Ever feel that way? Or am I a full fledged conspiracy nut and never realized it? ; )

The likelihood of a human flu pandemic is very high, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt warned Monday as he sought Southeast Asian cooperation to combat the spread of bird flu.

Leavitt and the director of the World Health Organization are touring Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam to seek their collaboration in preparing for the anticipated public health emergency linked to the H5N1 strain of the disease.

"Whether or not H5N1 is the virus that will ultimately trigger such a pandemic is unknown to us," he said at a news conference. "The probability is uncertain. But the warning signs are troubling. Hence we are responding in a robust way."

Bird Flu Update

There are turkeys' dead in Turkey - and no that isn't a joke. It's next destination - where does this type of catastophe usually appear? Hint - high population, high health risk! Damn.

Bird Flu On The Move

So far it has moved from Southeast Asia to Russia. Now it appears it may be detected in Romania. British officials are predicting that with migratory bird patterns being what they are, it will arrive in Britain in the not too distant future. India is also very concerned.

Flu experts have never seen a flu so deadly. It can kill a bird within hours. The articles and information below explain how and why it could mutate and the ultimate threat it could cause - the death of millions. As I understand it, the drug Tamiflu is increasingly ineffective and an effective vaccine couldn't be developed until it has crossed over into human beings.

Because an eventual human killer could evolve from a recombinant form, from recombining into a new strain within an individual with an additional form of flu at the same time, fighting the usual flu this year could be important as regards prevention.

Unfortunately, the avian form of the virus is spreading in areas which likely don't have much in the way of resources to combat any type of flu - let alone such a killer.

Influenza viruses are highly unstable and have the ability to mutate rapidly, potentially jumping from one animal species to another. Scientists fear the bird flu virus could evolve into a form that is easily spread between people, resulting in an extremely contagious and lethal disease.

This could happen if someone already infected with the human flu virus catches the bird flu. The two viruses could recombine inside the victim’s body, producing a hybrid that could readily spread from person to person.

The resulting virus likely would be something humans have never been exposed to before. With no immune defenses, the infection could cause devastating illness, such as occurred in the 1918-19 Spanish flu pandemic, which killed an estimated 40 million to 50 million worldwide.

Three domestic ducks have died of bird flu in eastern Romania, but authorities said Friday they had not confirmed whether the birds were infected by the H5N1 strain that experts are tracking for fear it could mutate and spawn a human flu pandemic.

Unlike the 1997 scare, this outbreak has spread more rapidly to other countries, increasing its exposure to people in varied locations and raising the likelihood that the strain will combine with a human influenza virus.

Nat. Geo. - In Southeast Asia a virus that kills chickens is now also killing people. The race is on to keep the bird flu from ravaging the world.

The deadly bird flu virus, which has killed millions of birds and dozens of people in East and South-East Asia, recently reached Russia and parts of Central Asia. Governments in Europe are discussing strategies to prepare for the virus, in case migratory birds carry it there from Asia.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Delegates from 80 nations and international agencies began meeting on Thursday to formulate the best way to fight the growing outbreak of avian influenza before it can cause a human pandemic that could kill millions.

At the same time, President George W. Bush met with top health and security advisers about ways the United States can deal with a influenza pandemic and scheduled a meeting with top vaccine manufacturers for Friday, and members of Congress introduced legislation that would help develop better flu vaccines and help spot outbreaks at the earliest moment.

Some folks are saying whatever you do, don't take two aspirins or you might not live to call anyone in the morning. But that's just a theory, at best.