Barone: Appears Dems Still Lack The Votes

After all this and still Democrats lack the votes. That's how bad this bill actually is. No wonder Lynch was promptly summoned to the WH for voicing his opposition. Evidently Jon Voight will be at the protest in DC on Saturday and has issued a call to arms.

An analysis of the votes cast for and against the rule, together with an examination of members’ public statements and political situations, suggests that the House leadership is still significantly short of 216 votes on final passage, and that opponents of the view have a reservoir of potential noes from more than the 38 Democrats needed to defeat the measure.

Comments

[J]

Dan, how are you getting these numbers? All the other whip counts are extremely close.

You and Connie Hair are telling us that this isn't going to pass, but I've lost my faith in you guys.

[Dan Riehl]

What are you talking about? Click the link and try reading the item if you have questions. The same goes for any whip count I've posted. What, are you another Obama troll?

[smitty]

Linked you
http://theothermccain.com/2010/03/18/the-bigger-picture/
Are you covering the BHO VA appearance tomorrow? I sort of have to go to $work, but I do intend to check in with Jon Voight on Saturday.

[J]

Dan, I'm no Obama troll--I'm tired of being told that this bill is dead, only to have it rear up again and again.

You're telling me they don't have the votes, and you link me to Barone's estimates. My point is that his are WAY off what everyone else is telling me--Jay Cost, Fox News, Firedoglake, etc.

The Fox News Whip Count is 214-217, by the way--according to Ace of Spades. That's f-ing frightening.

I'm sorry I lumped you in w/ Connie Hair--that wasn't fair(she has notoriously raised my hopes in spite of evidence). But I need more solid info if I am to back off this ledge. I don't buy Barone's numbers.

[john]

Apparently Adler (D NJ) is a no now, although I don't know if he had already been considered one for a while.

http://www.dailyrecord.com/article/20100318/UPDATES01/100318094/1005/NEWS01/NJ+Dem+Adler+says+he+ll+vote+against+health+care+bill

[Oscar]

Guys, don't kid yourselves. Pelosi has the votes. Barring some unforeseen circumstance, ObamaCare will pass on Sunday. There will be litigation after passage (by individuals and State AGs), but passage of the bill is a done deal.

The vote on the Slaughter rule today gave the game away. 222 Democrats voted for the rule. What it means, in practical terms, is that 222 Congressmembers intend to use the Slaughter rule as political cover for their support of ObamaCare (for all the good it will do them in November).

[Dan Riehl]

Well, thaks, J, as I've never said it wouldn't pass. My response when asked has been consistent. They will do everything they can to pass it. Barone's analysis is based upon Dem opposition to Slaughter in the vote today and public statements by others. He doesn't make any exact projection. But if they had the votes, Obama wouldnt have cancelled his trip, again. And Lynch wouldn't be being called to the WH. So, I agree with him, they do not have them, yet. Py point as made above is that it's still up for grabs and I think that's fair to say based upon everything we're seeing.

[john]

And I just read in the comments section of Ace that Bobby Rush (D) is now a no

[ic]

A bloodless coup to usurp the power of the people. How about deem the one el Presidente for life?

[Dan Riehl]

Woo Hoo, Oscar the concern troll! lol

[Dan Riehl]

Looking for more on Rush, but he's a confirmed Yes via the Hill.

[Dan Riehl]

via HuffPo:

6:18 PM ET: Rep. Bobby Rush goes from "yes" to "no" to "undecided." Illinois Democrat Bobby Rush can't make up his mind about health care reform.

A Rush spokeswoman told one HuffPost reporter that Rush plans to vote "no" because he is unhappy that a discount program that reimburses hospitals for taking care of the indigent and poor was removed from the final version of the bill. She said the office was waiting for his signal to release a statement of opposition.

But at the same time, Rush himself told a different HuffPost reporter that he was undecided. "I think we're working it out," he told Ryan Grim.

President Obama unsuccessfully ran for Rush's seat in 2000. Hard feelings?

-- ARTHUR DELANEY

[Dan Riehl]

I'd bet Bobby Rush is just looking for some scumbag deal and will be a yes.

[john]

Probably, but one can hope.

[Ozwitch]

I don't think you can read too much into O's postponing of his SE Asia trip. Either he's staying to do some last-minute fixing, or he's staying to get his picture taken when they get the votes. I don't think he wants to be out of the country if the bill passes.

[JayJay]

I am hoping this article will help those waffling about to vote no... and we have not heard from Congressman Ryan yet either
https://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/cbo-obamacare-would-cost-over-2-trillion

[ic]

Adler was a no in Nov. No gain there.

[TheLastBrainLeft]

The vote today was procedural and cannot be used to assume that a yes today was a yes for the bill itself. She does not have the votes, she hopes to have them by Sunday, but she does not have a firm 216 yet.

Like I said on another blog I post to, do not feed the Pelosi "momentum machine" by panicking.

[vsatt]

According to Michelle Malkin, the Asia trip's been postponed to June. Either he's waiting for his daughters to get out of school or he thinks it may now take until then to pass this bill.

[tom]

J.

I don't know how Fox news arrives at its 214-217 figure. Maybe Fox doesn't want to encourage overconfidence. A little fear is alwaya good motivator!

BUT according to The Hill, 36 Democrats are firm "no" votes, likely "no" or leaning "no".

All it will take to kill the bill is 38 votes.

If the 36 Democrat presumed "no" votes go that way.. all that is needed to kill the bill is 2 more votes.

The Hill lists 48 Democrats as undecided, many in swing districts or GOP leaning districts and in competitive races in a year that doesn't look good for Democrats.

All we have to do is pick up 2 of them, to kill this abomination.

And then there always total surprises from congressmen who previously voted "yes" and were never expected to say they will vote "no"...like Lynch.

I kind of like those odds.

[Olliander]

I'm trying to remain positive that this thing crashes and burns. At this point, its anyone's guess as to whip counts and the like. It's really too close to call. Some postiive signs, like Obama asking Rep. Cao to look at the bill again---if they have this in the bag, why would they even bother with a Republican?

But the pessimist in me says this thing was over when the CBO released their semi-official release today. It's just a matter of time before the squishy Democrats on the fence jump into the cesspool.

Let's hope I'm wrong.