Can They Ram Through Health Care Reform?

The New York Times looks at what details can be gleaned as regards potential votes for and against Obama's health care reform proposal. They stop short of saying it can't pass. But it doesn't look good for now.

WASHINGTON — The future of President Obama’s health care overhaul now rests largely with two blocs of swing Democrats in the House of Representatives — abortion opponents and fiscal conservatives — whose indecision signals the difficulties Speaker Nancy Pelosi faces in securing the votes necessary to pass the bill.

That mostly contradicts Andy McCarthy's position that they will ram it through no matter what.

We're wired to think that everyone plays by the ususal(sic) rules of politics — i.e., if the tide starts to change, the side against whom it has turned modifies its positions in order to stay viable in the next election. But what will happen here will be the opposite.

Moe Lane thinks the whole thing is an exercise in futility by Obama. But he and others are not addressing the fact that Obama has painted himself into a corner. He absolutely has to have a HC reform package of some sort, or his entire presidency may go down the drain. The composition of Congress after November will only get worse for him.

Best guess, they are doing the Math on a few different versions, trying to nail down who they pick up and who they lose with this, or that tweak. If there's any Math that can be made to work, there will be some form of a bill, possibly using reconciliation if need be.

Comments

[ddub]

I believe they would have tried to RHAM it through if Thursday's dog and pony had gone the way they had hoped. I don't think the Dems believed that the likes of Paul Ryan and Eric Cantor would be able to outshine their beloved. Anyway you slice it, no matter if it's next week or six months from now passing healthcare reform in its present incarnation will be political suicide.

[JEF]

Regardless of what the NYT reports on the hcr's impending collapse, McCarthy's take is, to me, much more realistic.

1. Obama will do anything to get his name in the "icons of Liberal Presidents"

2. The left has wanted this for 70+ years

3. They have already shown the capacity for bribing members with positions in their Administration

So if you are a House Dem is promised a nice cushy job if defeated, and a road to hell if you vote against the package....how many are going to vote against. Who will be the one house member who votes against this and destroys Obama's dreams? It most often turns on one person. The Obambi have long memories.

So then to the Senate. Sure, maybe there will be delaying tactics from the R's...but the Dems don't care about the time. The R's will be protrayed as Obstructionists by the Press big time...standing against workers.

I understand that Biden can overrule the Parlimentarian. So, isn't this whole formula one for a Dem Great Victory against the Evil Forces of business?

[rrpjr]

"We're wired to think that everyone plays by the usual rules of politics..."

McCarthy has it right (like about the 5-10% of conservatives who really understand the Left).

Forget the old rules. This is the Left in a historic position of political power. They WILL NOT allow this opportunity to pass. They're just playing out the game to see if it's possible to get what they want without total destruction. But if total destruction is required, they will take it to that extreme, and simply raise the level of deflection, distraction, attack and hate to equal it. We're in for quite a sight.

[Captain Joe]

Perform an act of political terrorism...vote Republican next Tuesday.

[Southdakotaboy]

If I remember right any bill that is passed through reconcilliation has a sunset built right into it automatically and can be repealed through another 51 vote. That is how we will be able to roll this back if they pass it this way.

[Aruges]

I think it would take a bit more than that to roll it back, as the Senate bill would have already been signed into law at that point. Remeber, the reconciliation bill is what "fixes" the Senate bill. If you allow the reconciliation bill to sunset, we are still stuck with the law laid out in the Senate bill. We would need a real repeal of that language if the house passes it.

[Lightwave]

"He absolutely has to have a HC reform package of some sort, or his entire presidency may go down the drain."

Dan? MAY go down the drain? Really? Obama's still relevant in any way?

He's ALREADY the worst President in modern history in the eyes of a good 30% of the country. He's one of the worst in another 20%, easy. That percentage will go up the second this gets signed into law. We're talking a generational wipeout of the Democrats here that may give the GOP control of Congress for decades.

McCarthy argues he's got nothing left to lose. For Obama that's true. For every other Democrat in Congress? Nope.

This bill is dead, Dan. Count on it. Ignore Obama. He's irrelevant now. Hit the Blue Dogs and the Red State Dem Senators. Those are the ones that have to be convinced in order to kill the rest of Obama's lunacy. They want to be re-elected. They have to be convinced that any votes for Obama's sinking ship means they will be unemployed.

We have to stall them for just a few more months, then campaign season takes over an no legislation will get passed. It's over then.

But now is the time to be hitting the Dems in Congress. Obama? He's down to -21 at Rasmussen. He's done and over with. Finish off the Dems in Congress, and in January America starts over.

[unseen]

If they ram this thru I could see impeachment procedures for Obama come Jan 2011 has the house and Senate will be firmly in the GOP hands and the bribery of senators will be the crime.

Just saying the dems must learn that Newton's law applies to Politics also. For every action there will be an equal and opposite reaction.

the GOp must make it clear to the Dems that if the dems try this no nominations, no bills, no spending, not even a naming of a post office will get thru the senate for the next 3 years or until the GOP regains the majority.

They must be ready to shut the government down.

[sam]

Your now quoting unhinged torture apologist Andy McCarthy on strategy?

Oy

[Murgatroyd]

They may put it on hold for now - but wait until after the November elections! The Democrats in Congress either will be re-elected for another two years or else they'll be lame ducks with nothing to lose. I could see them passing a reconciliation bill then. There might even be enough Democrats in the House with a "screw you!" attitude towards the voters who turned them out of office to pass the Senate bill without any modifications and send it to Obama for his signature.

[Lightwave]

Hate to break it to you Murgatroyd, but there's a 99.9% chance at this point the House and Senate will belong to the GOP come January.

The only bills that will be getting to Obama's desk will be ones designed to limit, curtail, or eliminate trillions in liberal government waste programs. Obama can get with the program, or impeachment will be in order.

Since The Won won't do it, I expect Unseen's plan for the rest of this year: NO LEGISLATION PERIOD. Shut it down to limit the damage. No extensions of the bailouts. No extensions of giveaways of my taxpayer dollars. Not a single dollar of additional spending.

Or we will replace Congress with those who WILL comply.

[iconoclast]

Senator Conrad seemed to have pretty much killed the idea of using reconciliation to rewrite legislation. So that would mean the House would have to pass the Senate version essentially as-is.

http://hotair.com/archives/2010/02/28/conrad-reconciliation-wont-work-for-obamacare/

How many Dem legislators in shaky districts are likely to vote for this? As many as in hard leftard districts who would approve waterboarding (like Pelosi).

[Ad rem]

rrpjr....couldn't have said it better.