NJ: Christie Up By 6 In New Jersey

Via Taegan Goddard reporting on the final Public Policy Poll. Christie over Corzine 47 - 41 with Daggert pulling 11%.

Analysis: "Christie's advantage is due largely to his support from independents and because he has Republicans more unified around him than the Democrats are around Corzine. Christie leads Corzine 52-29 with indies, as Daggett's support with that group has declined to 16%. Christie is getting 82% of Republicans to Corzine's 72% of Democrats."

Comments

[crosspatch]

Again, these last minute polling numbers only make sense for votes cast between now and Tuesday. New Jersey stated a vote by mail program recently. Where I live about 60% of the votes were cast by mail in the last election. These polling changes mean less toward election day as more people vote early by mail. Early voting is evil and makes these polls and exit polls potentially worthless.

[Darth Venomous]

If true (Instapundit appears to have his doubts), this certainly didn't help things for Corzine.

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/10/paramus_man_claming_to_work_fo.html

"EAST RUTHERFORD -- A Paramus man claiming to work for Gov. Jon Corzine’s reelection campaign was arrested Friday night on drug charges after police found Ecstasy tablets in his car, authorities said.

A Corzine spokeswoman said the man does not work for either the governor’s campaign or the Democratic State Committee."

Well, duh. This close to an election, I wouldn't admit it, either.

[cindi]

Cross, how do the mail votes work in Jersey? I know in PA, mail in ballots are not counted until the end of the election in each voting district.

[crosspatch]

I don't know how they work in Jersey, it is a new program apparently only recently passed by the state legislature. I know you have to specifically ask for a ballot for each election unlike how it is done here in California. In California you can elect for "permanent vote by mail" status and from that time on, you receive mail-in ballots for every election in your precinct.

I found this on the New Jersey elections site but it doesn't give any particulars. In California, once your ballot is received, you receive a receipt with a tracking number. You can then track the ballot and know when it is counted. Also, you can, in some jurisdictions, not sure if all of them, go to the polling place on election day, get a provisional ballot, sign an affidavit that you want to cancel your mail-in vote, and vote in person. I believe that depends on county here. So a mail-in ballot can be changed.

Most Western states now have over 50% of their ballots being mailed in or people voting early so polling numbers the week before the election don't mean much when half or more of the people have already voted.

[crosspatch]

Oops, apparently I cant embed a link:

http://www.njelections.org/vote-by-mail-provisional-ballot-count.html

[Largebill]

His lead needs to stay at least 5%. Anything less than that and it isn't fraud proof. Any time a Republican wins by a small margin you can count on the Dems pulling what Gore tried and Franken succeeded in doing. Constant recounts with dem votes magically appearing.

[Peg C.]

Fraud, a Dem's best friend.

It will truly be a miracle and I might have to give up agnosticism if McDonnell, Hoffman and Christie all win. In fact, if they all win I'm going to church next Sunday.