Chuck DeVore vs Carly Fiorina

Given an early conference call with Carly Fiorina and an approximately 40 minute one-on-one interview with Chuck DeVore last night, reporting my thoughts and observations seems prudent, though I'm not going to endorse either candidate. Frankly, it would be foolish given what little I know about California politics on the ground and would be all but meaningless in the grand scheme. I'd certainly like to know what the dean of American politics, Michael Barone, might think on DeVore's electability given the state as currently comprised. But I ain't got his number handy just now.

If Doug Hoffman versus Dede Scozzafava in NY - 23 was the equivalent of a club fight from a national political perspective, DeVore versus Fiorina in California at least has the potential to produce something of a heavyweight championship bout. And the battle is joined in a Republican primary where it belongs.

As current polls suggest, given California state politics and national trends, the candidates seem to be fighting to a draw as of today, with the outcome impossible to predict. What we know is that it can't end in a tie and one of two fine candidates is going to lose, though be far from a loser. Neither got where they are by chance. Both climbed their respective ladders through determination and hard work.

Initially I was thinking Carly might have the advantage due to fund raising potential and significant establishment support. But if DeVore proved anything last night, it's that he wants to run against Barbara Boxer for a Senate seat and he's extremely determined to do all he can do to secure that opportunity for himself.

Now for just a quick bit of inside blogging stuff.

From a logistics perspective, the conference call with Carly went as one with a Senator might. She was ten or so minutes late, most likely on a cell phone and, what I learned after wards from the audio, was that her line cut off just near the end of the call. I had to beg off before the last question myself due to another call, people are busy, so make of it what you want, though perhaps not too much. Frankly, I wouldn't even mention it but the call with DeVore stood in such stark contrast.

To be fair, all that may mean is that as something of an insurgent candidate with backing from much of the conservative blogosphere, DeVore may be taking them a bit more seriously than Fiorina - they're likely that much more important to his candidacy right now. But DeVore's discipline and attention to detail left me with the impression that he knows his retail politics. In a primary, there's much to be said for that. And it's why I've backed away from seeing Carly with a clear edge today.

Not only did DeVore call precisely on time and chat as long as I had questions, he mentioned a blog post of mine on a recovered confederate ship. The post was made four days ago . Do you think Chuck DeVore reads my blog? So, why share that? With all due respect to Assemblyman DeVore, I rather doubt he manages to read this blog in between his job and over 200 campaign events, though he may have seen it after being sent a post on Carly. Either way, I saw it as an excellent lesson in retail politics. In my business career, teaching Account Managers to walk into an executive's office and pick out some personal item to bring into the discussion at a convenient point to connect with a prospect was one of the hardest, yet most important things to teach. So, does DeVore know retail politics and have the discipline to practice them? I'd bet he does. It impressed me quite a bit in political terms. Believe me, if I hadn't spent so many years doing the same thing to good effect, I could easily have wanted to endorse him on the spot. Don't dismiss the skill set it takes to win in politics at any level. It's a more powerful technique that some might imagine, especially when it takes you by surprise as it did me. A positive one, in point of fact.

It also impressed me along the lines of other observations. DeVore is no Doug Hoffman. He's as polished as he is conservative. DeVore speaks his mind, but one senses an ability to not awkwardly have to bite his tongue. While he might have pandered to me by bashing Obama on his Afghanistan dithering, he was prudent and spoke like the retired Lieutenant Colonel of the Army National Guard after twenty-four years he is. I was also surprised to hear him say he found more to like in Reagan's foreign policy, than he did Bush's more aggressive brand. Previous DC experience with Cap Weinberger under Reagan seems to have taught him a lot about foreign policy, as well.

In short, DeVore is sharp. He combines a solid conservative record and set of ideas with the polish from having worked in DC before going on to the Aerospace industry. His returning to electoral politics and being retired military has given DeVore the type of polish and discipline that wins political campaigns. I should add, despite perhaps a more casual manner on the conference call, Carly is every bit as accomplished in different ways, having worked her way up from secretary to running a Fortune 20 corporation. And save the, oh but she was fired stuff. One doesn't get the top slot from the secretarial pool because someone felt like taking a flier on a good typist, or any other foolish reason. Don't underestimate her, or sell her short, is my point. She's new to formal politics and likely has some things to learn. I suspect she will learn fast provided she wants it as much as Chuck does.

DeVore likes to portray the race as the current struggle for the "soul of the Republican Party" it may well be. That depends on your view and whether one lives in California, or not. If 2010 is going to be a sort of mini-Reagan Revolution, DeVore could easily be the guy. But if business clout helping fund raising and broader establishment Republican support holds the key, it'll be Carly versus Boxer come next Fall. We could do worse than either candidate.

In the end, do I see Chuck DeVore as the more ideologically firm of the two. Honestly, yes. Carly may be a bit more willing to compromise, which is not to say DeVore fails to see the value of being pragmatic when he must. As I inferred, he's no rube. Ultimately, it's my role to write my impressions and leave it to California Republicans to decide for themselves. DeVore did say that, win or lose, what was important is that we rally around the Republican nominee for Senate in California and send Barbara Boxer home. I couldn't agree more. Both Fiorina and DeVore have pluses and minuses head-to-head against Boxer. DeVore claims to have been better vetted through previous experience, while Boxer is likely to use the gender card every chance she can against him. Whichever one you believe has the better chance of winning is the one I'd suggest you endorse.

DeVore seems to hold the edge on understanding retail politics, which can go a long way toward winning in a primary fight. How Carly raises money and deploys it could also settle this race. My sense is if she gets away from DeVore in the polls it will be over. Perhaps that's why DeVore seems to be acting like the smart fighter he appears to be, being willing  to do an interview with a single conservative blogger with my reach, as he did. Speaking only as a blogger, how could I not appreciate that?

I wish them both well in what could be an important battle as regards the future of the GOP. Also, as DeVore pointed out, if we have a Republican Governor and Senator in California come 2012, Obama could find himself playing defense in a political landscape almost forgotten as a competitive state in recent years. That could be a big plus up ahead.

I'd like to thank them both for being willing and taking the time to engage with bloggers and new media as they did. It, as much as anything else, has the potential to shape the future of the GOP. With the energy of the grassroots and even the Tea Party crowd, and the right candidates, we should have a stellar year in 2010. Pick your candidate for the Boxer seat and let's kick Babs out of it and in her seat, too, next year.

Both Fiorina and DeVore have the experience and ability to do it in my current opinion. If I see it shaping up differently in time, I'll likely say that, too. That's what changed from my DeVore interview more than anything else. I suspect that's what he wanted going in, most likely having been informed of my former views. Mission accomplished, to coin a phrase. Carly Fiorina may prove to be a harder individual to sway. Best of luck to them both. As I said, we could do worse on either count, though it's easy to understand why Chuck DeVore is doing so well with the Republican base. Is it NY - 23 II+? We'll see.

Carly Fiorina

Chuck DeVore

Pick your fighter and grab your popcorn and let the best candidate win. We'll need them to beat Boxer in 2010.

Comments

[oldtimer]

I don't care which one I just want Babs[call me senator] Boxer's butt out of DC. Both DeVore and Carly seem okay. Still waitng to make my choice. DeVore has been getting a big following here in SO. CA.

[montee]

My money is on Carly. With a big endorsement from senator Tom Coburn (who is no Newt Gingrich) and I suspect other big name conservatives who possess sway with the base. I fail to see how DeVore can try to cast this as a battle for "soul of the party" which he needs to be able to do considering his difficulties fund raising. To win this he has to get out in front quickly or he doesn't stand a chance. not to mention this California after all. Go Carly.

[Anon]

Carly was a terrible CEO for HP, so I don't have much faith that she would be anything but a terrible 'paint by numbers' senator who has nothing to add but the same old talking points.

[Ad rem]

Hey, DeVore got Jim DeMint's endorsement. That's not chickenshit!

[Foobarista]

I'd rather have The Outsorceress as governor. HP likely wouldn't exist for her restructuring, but she was definitely a "gunslinger" CEO who got a lot of lifers fired from a company that was famous for its gauzy "great place to work" paternalism.

We need someone who's willing to kick serious ass as governor, and who's willing to leave a pile of bodies around Sacramento. They'll be hated by the unions, media scribblers, and bien-pensants everywhere, but if they pull it off, they'll be hugely hated or on a Presidential shortlist.