NY - 23: Taranto's Confusing Analysis

If you take Taranto's initial reasoning to heart here, he seems to inadvertantly be saying two things at once. All that assumes Begala was thinking in terms of pumping up anyone here, as opposed to simply exploiting Palin via Hoffman to raise funds.

But see here:

Let's ignore Begala's shocking insensitivity to the mentally ill and focus on the politics of it. Why would Begala elevate Hoffman by focusing the fund-raising appeal on him, when there's also a Republican in the race? Partly, of course, to motivate Dems to open their checkbooks by appealing to their hatred of Sarah Palin.

But managing a three-way race is tricky. It is in the Democrats' interests for the Republican vote to be as evenly split as possible between Scozzafava and Hoffman so as to increase the likelihood of an Owens plurality. A month ago, this would have meant rooting for Hoffman to improve his standing by taking votes away from her. But with Scozz fading, the Dems ought to want to shore her up somehow. By portraying Hoffman as Owens's main opponent, Begala gives Republicans a reason to abandon formal party loyalty and back the Conservative.

All of which suggests that the DCCC has written off Scozzafava and now sees this as a two-man race between Hoffman and Owens. If the view we have imputed to the committee is correct, there's a very good chance Hoffman will pull off a victory.

Either I'm missing something, or the Begala message as perceived by Republicans would be, Hey, Hoffman can win!! There is serious support for the guy!

Taranto even specifically asserts they are giving Repuiblicans reason to abandon the GOP candidate for Hoffman:

By portraying Hoffman as Owens's main opponent, Begala gives Republicans a reason to abandon formal party loyalty and back the Conservative.

Fair enough. But then if the message is that Hoffman is the man to beat, aren't they inciting more Republicans to support him as Taranto claims, meaning their polls show him as the weaker of the two currently? Otherwise, they would be working against their stated goal of receiving a plurality. Get what I mean?

It is in the Democrats' interests for the Republican vote to be as evenly split as possible between Scozzafava and Hoffman so as to increase the likelihood of an Owens plurality

Comments

[Joe]

I hope you are right.

[mark l.]

can't wait for a reputable pollster to put up some numbers.

i can't imagine that the race would remain static, given this weeks press.

going with the sienna numbers from end of sept to oct 11, they do capture a shift, prior to the media blitz. these recent polls which have hoffman ahead, also have 22 and 23% undecideds.

the kos soothsayer had 12% undecided, but I have a feeling there is some shifting.

I've seen the "obama won this district"...anyobdy got the actual source? If true, this is an abject failure for the dems, 'especially' if the dem wins the seat.

winning with significantly less than 50% is the judas kiss of voting. prepare for the coronation AND crucifixion.

this is probably going to play out in NJ. corzine wins, with a 35% approval, and 42% of the vote. no one will ever complain about him not wearing a seatbelt, ever again.

[seekeronos]

From what I hear about Corzine, it sounds as if he should be beaten with the heavy end of a detached seatbelt.