Palin: Is It Over?

Jim Geraghty - and apparently Ace think it's over for her future. I think it's way to early to presume that, assuming she ever does plan on running. At her age, 45, she doesn't even have to be thinking 2012. Heck, she'd only be 56 in 2020, for heaven's sake. A Fox interview with her Brother shed some light on her reasoning. She was telling him off the record that it was eating up 80% of her and her staff's time fighting spurious ethics charges and national battles over media attacks. And it was costing Alaska a great deal of time and money.

She could spend the next eight years raising her kids, writing books, getting rich and developing any national GOP identity she wants. Bill Kristol, an obvious fan, thinks this is an opening shot for 2012. Could be, though she has a lot of work to do in a short time, if so. But she isn't going to lose a lot of core support over this. I don't think she sees politics the way most politicians do.

Like her, or not - she does things her own way and this is another example of that. I've no idea what her future holds, not sure I even care that much about any of the so called 2012 GOP possibles. But I'd never under estimate her, either. I will say this. If Romney gets the nod in 2012, I expect his weak political instincts, inability to connect on the stump and tendency to look bad in debates could give us 4 more years of Obama. That would leave the door wide open for 2016 - we know Biden won't be the Democrat running, unless the Dems have decided they've had enough of the White House for a while.

Lastly, if she does want to run in 2012, yes, this is a big gamble. But it's far too early to simply assume she's lost.

UPDATE: David Schuster is offering a typical sneering tone, but it doesn't make it any less accurate: "If it's true that she's leaving the governorship before her first term is complete, her national political career is done."

A broken clock can be right twice a day, and Schuster is right here. If Sarah Palin wishes to someday be President of the United States, then she had to serve at least one full term in statewide office. (Yes, Obama had been in the Senate for about two years before running for president, but he had a lot of stars align for him at the right moment. Beyond that, at some point, "but Obama did it that way" isn't a persuasive argument.)

Comments

[Mo]

We won't withstand 8 years of Obama. The US might not last 4 years. He's already almost finished us in a few months. Hyperbole? If his tax hikes go through, including crap-and-trade and health care...well, hell, we're already completely broke, but the day of reckoning for it will happen much sooner than it would otherwise. Obama wants to be a dictator, and he is already trying...and it can happen here, folks, don't be so freakin' stupid to think it couldn't.

[query_tool]

You're being hysterical Mo. Decry his policies if you will, but this "wants to be dictator" talk is pure nonsense. What do you possibly mean by "he is already trying".

[djn]

Palin is going National. She is going to help unite the Republican party against the disaster that is Obama...

MSNBC can only wish her away. Too bad. Palin will have her critics on both sides, but when the dust settles, she is out of Alaska with a good track record for her two years.

I love Palin...she has my support.

[Dennis D]

I think Sarah has simply had enough of the left wing media attacks. Enough brainless hatred. I think she is done with politics.Its a shame how these left wing hacks can break you.

[southdakotaboy]

I have to agree with djn. Palin can now go completely on the attack.

[Rich K]

I think its obvious that shes doing it primarily for the good of her fellow Alaskans. This lady has more class than all the DC blowhards and bloggers out there. She stood tall, took it with grace and pushed back when shoved. Not a tear to be seen ( Right Hillary ). So pile on all you folks want but I wish here the best no matter what she does going forward and to all you keyboard cowboys; Its easy to sit on your ass and complain and posture but a real man or woman walks the walk and talks the talk. All you do is talk.

[MarkJ]

"Jim Geraghty - and apparently Ace think it's over for her future."

Yeah, and I'm sure Geraghty and Ace also believed Richard Nixon's political career was finished back in 1962 after he lost to Pat Brown. Or Ronald Reagan's political career was finished in 1976 when he got beat out by Gerald Ford. Or that Hillary Clinton was to be the "inevitable and unstoppable" Donk nominee for Prez in 2008.

Here's a safety tip for Geraghty and Ace: political pundit predictions are interesting and fun, but they're mostly useless as a means of divining the future.

[Jack Okie]

The Tea Parties and 10th Amendment Movement, Alex.

Question: What are the fastest growing grassroots political movements (with considerable crossover) in the country today?

Everyone is still so fixated on Imperial Washington DC. Read her press release, people. I predict she is resigning so she can raise money for, and campaign for, legislators, governors and attorneys general who will support pushing back against the federal government. If she is successful in the 2010 election, it gives her a political base that trumps the Washington elites. And I wouldn't be surprised if part of the plan is to Sean Parnell and Craig Campbell in place as Governor and Lt. Governor.

[rrpjr]

Politics is a strange profession in this sense: the "professionals" are more wrong more of the time than in any profession I know.

Her "career over"? The second phase of her career just started. This was a brilliant move.

[rrpjr]

"If Sarah Palin wishes to someday be President of the United States, then she had to serve at least one full term in statewide office."

Says who? And yes, the fact Obama did it differently DOES matter. There are no rules anymore, and whatever may have been the unwritten assumptions were completely demolished by Obama's win.

[Dan Riehl]

She could be done. But most of the analysis one reads from media and blogs is either pedestrian, or emotionally driven. People also lose sight of her age. The woman has years to be a player if she wants it, or could be happy running a grassroots movement. WHo knows? She's from Alaska - notoriously independent and prone to go their own way.

As I just said to someone in email: I see some pronouncing her political doom. Could be, but many people think in boxes. If you view Palin as a citizen-politician, which, true or not, is how she portrays herself, this is a decision an individual might make on any given day if they don't need the money and feel trapped, or held back. One has to view palin through a different lense, which is not to say the country will buy it. But if she is even interested, they'll buy her on what she does next, I suspect. The only exception is more pending scandals of a finacial or family type she didn't want to endure. - Dan

[AJ Lynch]

Next you will tell us Hugh Hewitt said Palin's career is over. All due respect, the paradigm continues to shift. Neither the MSM nor bigtime bloggers have control any longer. Their opinion means no more than mine.

[Chris]

She's out of the governor's role and no longer forced to respond on the terms of deranged haters. Good move and the best possible way to set herself up to both take on the socialists and make some money in the process. She may be instrumental in taking back the house and a bunch of other offices next year. Should that come to pass, today will barely register on the memory meter. I say this as a lukewarm (at best) Palin supporter.

She can go toe to toe with the catastrophe in the WH for the next 17 months or so without being tied down responding to frivolous complaints lodged by bitter winners.

[larry]

So you will vote for a lady (again) who resign as Governor? so if she is president.. she going to resign when the media goes after her?

[Dan Riehl]

As I said, it's a gamble. But the fact is, she was at a disadvantage trying to do battle, or build a national network, from Alaska. People don't realize it's further from the lower 48, than Europe.

And anytime she left the state, the usual suspects launched new ethics complaints. I can see how from her perspective the governship was becoming a liability.

The media and elite Republicans against her seem intent on keeping her in the national spotlight. So she either had to fight it out with a serious handicap, or free herself up to respond as she might prefer.

Thats's all assuming she has plans for 2012. We'll have to wait and see. But if she wants it, she still has a very solid base upon which to build. I've said before the future will come from outside the establishment. That's where she is right now. We'll see how it plays. Much depends on her. I've never been convinced she was actually ready, which is not to say I don't think she could be in a relatively short period of time.

But she most definitely was at a disadvantage stuck in Alaska. She couldn't do much in the way of being an important influence for the GOP in 2010 as things stood.

Politicians love anyone who can and will help them raise money and generate buzz. Clearly, she still can. She can dominate the news like no other current GOP pol can and is almost on par with Obama in that regard.

[El Gordo]

I do not think this is supposed to help her political future at all (and it does not). She did it because she did not sign up for a constant and financially ruinous campaign of vilification that extended to her family. The Palins are not rich. So the bastards won. Note that THEY made it impossible for her to do the job she was elected to do. So much for democracy.

I respect her reasons. What I do not respect is the nonsense about her being a "quitter" and not being able to "stand the heat". Excuse me, but most politicans have a very easy ride. The kitchen is not one percent as hot for, say, the clown Al Franken, or the corrupt Chris Dodd or the neurotic Barbara Boxer or Harry Reid with his shady deals... the list goes on and on. The pundits who jabber about her not being "tough" will in the next minute complain that politics is the domain of rich, narcissist, lying machine politicians and their heirs. Well, duh! Being a normal citizen is downright harmful in politics. We get what we deserve.