Report claims all major Twitterers out of Iran went silent one hour ago. New report claims due to time - people asleep. Update: From Josh Trevino in email. See link for an aggregation site for Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and Google News for the latest on Iran.
1) Most traditional news inside Iran is being shut down. 2) Networks under Iranian government control are being tightly restricted or shut down outright. 3) Online social media is about the only way news on Iran is getting out.
I have therefore set up a collation of the three most useful social- media feeds, plus one traditional-news feed, here:
Hopefully this will prove a useful one-stop source of the latest on Iran, especially if I'm able to get Tumblr to allow vastly more rapid checking of the feeds! Use and disseminate as you see fit.
Update: American Power looks at the policy implications for America.
Update: I've seen some good stuff from Nate Silver, this doesn't appear to qualify - precisely for the reasons he states. And his McCain Obama example does more to confirm the data looks bad, as opposed to in line with what an American election looks like.
To properly analyze Iran's election results is probably something best left to Middle East experts
Don't look at the chart - read Silver's and this analysis he's questioning. It's precisely because the regional differences Silver cites as happening in America didn't happen in Iran that the data is highly questionable.
Silver:
In our example, Wave 5 happens to be a very good one for McCain: it contains the results from South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee and Texas -- four red states -- plus Rhode Island, which went for Obama but contains a tiny number of votes. And yet, the impact of Wave 5 is barely visible when the results are presented in this fashion.
Other Analysis: If what they report is accurate, this would be the equivalent of Obama winning the Red states by the same margins as the Blue. That would never occur. Whether they ultimately form a straight line on the overall graph, or not, is less relevant. This would be the equivalent of McCain winning Illinois and New York.
Statistically and mathematically, it is impossible to maintain such perfect linear relations between the votes of any two candidates in any election — and at all stages of vote counting. This is particularly true about Iran, a large country with a variety of ethnic groups who usually vote for a candidate who is ethnically one of their own.For example, in the present elections, Mr. Mousavi is an Azeri and speaks Turkish. The Azeries make up 1/4 of all the eligible voters in Iran and in his trips to Azerbaijan province, where most of the Azeri population lives, Mr. Mousavi had been greeted by huge rallies in support of his campaign. Likewise, Mr. Karroubi, the other reformist candidate, is a Lor. But according to the data released by Iran’s Interior Ministry, in both cases, Mr. Ahmadinejad has far outdone both candidates in their own provinces of birth and among their own ethnic populations.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE55C0W620090613
KARIM SADJAPOUR, ANALYST AT CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR
INTERNATIONAL PEACE:
"I don't think anyone anticipated this level of fraudulence. This was a selection, not an election. At least authoritarian regimes like Syria and Egypt have no democratic pretences. In retrospect it appears this entire campaign was a show: (Supreme Leader) Ayatollah (Ali) Khamenei wasn't ever going to let Ahmadinejad lose."
there's more of the same mostly at the link
Posted by: lala | Saturday, June 13, 2009 at 11:26 PM
What's it going to be like when Obama links himself politically with Ahmadinejad and U.S. citizens' freedom of speech gets shut off like this? :(
Posted by: Effra | Sunday, June 14, 2009 at 02:12 AM
Cnet asking where is CNN
http://news.cnet.com/8301-17939_109-10264398-2.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-20
Posted by: lala | Sunday, June 14, 2009 at 08:26 AM