Kissinger On Afghanistan

You can read Kissinger's take on Afghanistan here. It isn't reassuring, as many parts of his possible path to something that might resemble victory are each significant obstacles taken alone. International cooperation, a solid effort on the part of Pakistan, etc....

My rather cynical belief is that Obama painted himself into a corner on Afghanistan during the campaign. He didn't want to fight the primary war we were engaged in at the time. But he didn't want to appear to be too much a dove, either. Promising decisive action in Afghanistan allowed him to have it both ways.

He rolled the dice and lost when he won the presidency as Afghanistan is now his to own. After some build up, some belabored analysis, I look for him to find the right time to disengage.

He might prove me wrong. But I don't believe he or the Democrats in general have it in their stomachs to fight the kind of war Afghanistan will prove to be.

Comments

[mark l.]

I think 90% of his Afghanistan policy is centered around getting bin Laden.

Someone is telling him that if he provides more troops, they'll get him. Obama probably believes that if he were to accomplish the task, where bush 'failed', it would establish his bona fides in american history.

I think what is funny about his dream of capturing bin laden, is that he fails to consider that the only guy who wanted him more than even obama, was bush.

I'm starting to see obama as a person who learned more about being a president from hollywood, as opposed to Harvard and Columbia. His real role model isn't FDR or Lincoln, it's probably Harrison Ford.

[mark l.]

Here's the nightmare scenario for Afghanistan...

a multitude of factors turn the country into a giant proxy war.
1.Pakistan turns.
2. Iran senses weakness in our commitment, despite our expansion, and sends in supplies and support.
3. Other muslim states, while not officially sanctioning involvement, become a massive source of footsoldiers.

any of the three would make obama flinch, and they seem, individually, far-fetched.

the problem is that the 2nd and 3rd world are going to get destabilized by the financial crisis, and the natives will be getting restless for the next several years.

Israel could easily exacerbate tensions. Iran is going to test a bomb soon, with significant Russian assistance.

I hope Afghanistan doesn't boil over, but the pot is definitely on the stove. Time is our enemy.

[Mark Turner]

The only reason Obama would ever want to continue US presence in either Iraq or Afghanistan (presumptively the latter) is to try and get bin Laden. If he did, he would truly be remembered as someone great -- something his nemesis George W. Bush never accomplished. He would be the hero instead. If bin Laden dies in a US airstrike during Obama's presidency, I am sure he will try to take credit for it. Otherwise, like all liberal Democrats, he has a blunt disdain for the military, regardless of how "noble" the cause might otherwise be seen. If this was WWII, he would be Chamberlain, or worse.

[WBestPresidentEver]

The issue at hand concerning reporters being able to once again take pictures of fallen soldiers coming off the planes is not a good thing.
This is one appeasement of Obama's that may well backfire on him.
This is now in the news everywhere including Afghanastan and Pakistan.
I see these terrorists taking advantage on this as in we will give them (USA reporters) something to take pictures of now. It will not be good for Obama as the press and groups against wars will be all over him.
Just watch what happens in the future if they decide to let this start up again.

[Lala]

British Muslims are flooding into Afghanistan to fight the West.

[templar knight]

Here's the bottom line. I know for a fact that Pakistani diplomats have just arrived in Washington. They are here to cut a deal, and Obama will go along with it. Pakistan will basically cede, and already has to a large extent, the NWFP and the tribal lands to the Taliban.

Karzai has seen the light, and either will be or already is negociating a power-sharing agreement with the Taliban. The US will be leaving Afghanistan very soon.