Update: Chambliss Wins Georgia Run-off

It's over. All eyes turn to MN now with Franken trying to steal one from Coleman.

Update: Scanning Chambliss's counties, he's bettering his margins based on early returns. Again, too early to say - but looking very good for Chambliss based upon the early returns.

Too early for anything definitive, but at this point, Martin's counties aren't coming in quite as large as he needs in early returns for a win. But only 4 or so of the 10 have actually reported. And they aren't complete.

SenateGuru has a breakdown of the ten top counties for each candidate for Nov 4th. Mitchell County is something of a bellwether due to being tied on the 4th.

Compare those results to today's as they come in and you'll have an early picture of the race.

Comments

[WBestPresidentEver]

SAXBY WON 60% to 40%. YEEHAW !! LoL.
I love my RED STATE !

I knew he would. He is a GOOD MAN !

Unlike his sissy challenger !

[jharp]

I'm not surprised but disappointed.

Pretty much represents the divisions of our country. Redneckistan is solid knuckledragging republican. Pretty much the old confederacy plus Wyoming, Utah, Montana, and a swath of the uninhabited plains.

Good luck with that as a base.

[Zeigenbach Tapper]

And jharp is still douchebagistan thinking that his OSU degree makes him smarter than anyone but is so insecure he has to go on Internet Comment Board World Tour! profanely insulting people to prove to himself that he has a penis and a brain.

[PA]

Obviously the anti-coattails of Obama fatigue. The guy isn't even in office yet, and he's causing other democrats to bleed voters.

[ET]

Oh no! more bad news for jharp...

http://www.reuters.com/article/vcCandidateFeed2/idUSTRE4B206W20081203

Poor, sad man. Harpo was counting on that windfall check from uncle barry since he can't support his family, failure that he is.

One more shoe drops as Obama jettisons the dumbass liberal drivel he had to espouse to get the leftard vote.

When will wpe and the harpist start calling "Impeach Barak!" Shouldn't be long now.

[jharp]

ET,

You are a fool. And my truthiness must be really getting to you.

Just like the other losers here you have opted to just make shit up.

Pretty amusing to me. Why you would believe this makes me unhappy is a mystery to me.

But I am quite flattered to be singled out.

[mark l.]

chambliss was an essential seat, and coleman remains essential as well.

the biggest losers may very well be Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins.
I love snowe, but find collins far less impressive. Had they been in the position of decidng on a filibuster of a more controversially liberal supreme court nominee, I have little doubt that they would be the weakest links in any gop effort to block.

coleman is probably the next weakest link in line, but there is a distinct difference between he and snowe/collins.

chambliss, by the numbers:

2002
chambliss 1.07 million.
cleland .932 million.

2008-nov 2
chambliss 1.867 million
martin 1.757 million.

2008 -dec 2
(with incomplete numbers)
chambliss 1.22 million
martin .906 million.

first, look at 02 v. 08(dec 2)-both are off cycle, expressing those willing to vote in off-year elections.
chambliss is up 14%
the dem is down 3%.

chambliss is also getting 65% support of those who voted for him in nov.
martin is getting 52%....

yes jharp-
"Good luck with that as a base."

[mark l.]

the martinez thing is just too weird...

who announces that they won't seek reelection two years before they retire?

If jeb steps up to fill the spot, martinez was 'ordered' to make the announcement. (Perhaps told, more politely, that he would lose if it had to go to a primary). There is no chance any governor takes a senate seat without hoping for a shot at the WH. The bet is pretty solid, if obama is destined to lose, you jump at the nomination. If he has too much momentum, you wait another four years.

aside from bayh, anybody know any governors to senators, currently?

[jharp]

yes jharp-
"Good luck with that as a base."

Posted by: mark l. | Wednesday, December 03, 2008 at 12:30 AM

Congratulations, mark l.

You've only lost 10 Senate seats, 47 House seats, the White House and soon 2-3 Supreme Court Justices in 4 short years with your "base".

[jharp]

Correction, mark l.

Your base has lost 14 Senate seats, 50 House seats, and the White House in 2, THAT'S TWO, years.

And please, correct me if I'm wrong as I had to rush.

[WBestPresidentEver]

Saxby is a good man. That little sissy boy was a nightmare before he got kicked out of the state government. He is a shady character. Glad the voters came out today.
Thank you Sarah !!
If you go back to this link below, you will see how all the counties in Ga voted. All the counties that voted for Sissy boy are mostly black.
I am glad I live in a RED COUNTY.

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/election_results/2008_1202/003.htm

[templar knight]

"Good luck with that as a base."

Thanks. I like the people in the Old Confederacy and the Plains. They tend to be very friendly, hard-working, decent people, as opposed to the filth that inhabits the big cities of the North and the far West. Now, have a nice day! See, I told you we were polite.

[mark l.]

"2-3 Supreme Court Justices in 4 short years"

I was unaware that Thomas(60), Scalia(72), Roberts(53), or Alito(58) were retiring. As it stands now, they are, for the most part, the four youngest justices.

If you look at the replacements, you'll need some for ginsberg(75), stevens(88), and potentially kennedy(72), souter(69), and Breyer(70).

The only one among them that might matter is kennedy. Obama will replace them with liberal justices, but not even close to how liberal the current group is...

bush switched roberts for rehnquist and alito for o'connor. It's a draw on roberts, but merit points for getting him named chief justice. Alito was a very big win in replacing o'connor.

I sincerely doubt you will find a more liberal (and qualified) justice than ginsberg or stevens.

as it stands, kennedy is the swing vote, and obama would need to replace him, if he really has any hopes of changing the makeup of the court. Any other replacement is merely status quo.

[mark l.]

"You've only lost 10 Senate seats, 47 House seats, the White House and soon 2-3 Supreme Court Justices in 4 short years with your "base"."

In 94, you lost 54 seats in one election.
In 94, you also lost 8 senate seats in the election, and the lone american indian in the senate left your party for the gop. Richard shelby also left your party, post election, leaving the democratic loss at 10 seats.

one off year election-54 seats, and 10 senate seats is a far sounder thumping, than having to go with 2 elections.

The circumstances of 2010, relative to 94, are uniquely similar. I don't think the senate is reachable, and even a 40 seat swing in the house seems far away, but given 94's results, not impossible.

given recent history, the democratic dominance of all three branches will be short lived, but I would rather it occur for 4 years, as opposed to just 2... the longer the run, the more momentum for change will build. unless the democrats are successful-they have been successful before, right?

nothing will get the minds of fiscal conservatives more agitated, than watching obama eclispse bush's spending without concern. Throw in a run at universal health care, and 94 will occur again. Obama could very well seek to avoid the ire of fiscal conservatives, and eschew the national healthcare plan...

the power in the house is not a matter of party, so much as it a matter of how much the 60+ blue dogs will tolerate.

In many ways, guys like heath shuler are more powerful than pelosi.

[mark l.]

"The Blue Dog Coalition was formed in 1994 during the 104th Congress to give more conservative members from the Democratic party a unified voice. The Blue Dogs are viewed by some as a continuation of the socially conservative wing of the Democratic party prominent during the presidencies of Harry S Truman and Lyndon B. Johnson.[citation needed] However, the only stated policy position of the Blue Dogs is fiscal conservatism, and many of the members of the coalition hold liberal views on social issues such as abortion, stem-cell research, and gay rights.[citation needed]"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Dog_Democrat

this was in addition to the 54 house seats lost, and the 9 senate seats. 94 was a watershed year.

current bluedog numbers are at 47, which combined with 175 republicans, provides 222 fiscally conservative house members. good luck with obama providing a 'new deal'.

[mark l.]

one other tiny point about this run-off election.
martin got less votes than chambliss did in 2002. Tales of obama's politcal machine? overrated.

obama's victory in 08 is exlusively tied to him, and clearly does not support the belief that the democratic party as whole is on the rise.