Where Things Really Stand

There are a few pertinent facts to consider now that we are finally 24 hours away from the actual vote. What is indisputable is that things are moving in McCain's direction. Obama is currently at his lowest EV count via RCP than he has been in two weeks.

Another fact to add to that, there are enough states within, or barely outside the MoE to make a difference in the outcome of this election.

More facts - there have been relatively high numbers of non-responders and undecideds in virtually all the polling being conducted this campaign season and most of those polls have had untraditional high sample ratios of Democrats versus Republicans based upon the assumption that dispirited Republicans will not show up and a high number of invigorated Democrats will. Those last items are assumptions, they are not facts.

The last two facts to consider are these, no one knows or can accurately predict how non-responders and undecideds in numbers large enough to determine this election are actually going to break. And if you personally don't go out and vote, then you have no real right to bitch or complain about any outcome.

So vote. And leave the rest to the counters and, perhaps unfortunately, the lawyers, and know you did your thing for democracy. In the end, there is little more than that any one of us can do now.

Comments

[North Dallas Thirty]

LOL....you have to admire jharp's persistence, if not his intelligence.

"We have also had quite a hand in skewing many many polls, some we couldn’t control as much as we would have liked. But many we have spoiled over. Just enough to make real clear politics look scarey to a mccain supporter. Its worked, alough the goal was to appear 13-15 points ahead.

see, the results have been working. People tend to support a winner, go with the flow, become “sheeple”

The polls are roughly 3-5 points in favor of Barack. Thats due to our inflation of the polls and pulling in the sheeple."

http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/30/confession-of-an-obama-blogger-by-sarah-p-as-posted-to-this-site/

And:

"They’ll say things like, “Well, McCain did have a surge in the polls and he is a good candidate, but now Zogby and Rasmussen say this race is over because Obama is so far ahead.” Their MO is to try to stike some psychological affinity with you, agreeing on some point, before casting an Eeyore spell over your gullible self and bringing you down with troll lies. Their hope is to spook Eeyores to stampede, and call or email all of their friends in panic. “Trolls told me we should give up and I listened because the trolls said it and I read what they said and now I need my dydee changed because I am the world’s most gullible 45-year old!”. And your Doorman or whoever is staring back at you wishes he never met an Eeyore such as yourself. Enough with the pants wetting over things trolls tell you.

And, if you haven’t figured this out by now, you deserve to be called stupid by us, because the biggest concern trolls OF THEM ALL are the mainstream media. The biggest Eeyores we know park themselves in front of MSNBC and wail and cry throughout the day, gnashing their teeth and pulling their hair, despondent the concern trolls on the Obama propaganda channel keep telling them to SURRENDER! because “all hope is lost, you can’t possibly win”. MSNBC tells Eeyores there is nothing any of us can do to stop Obama’s socialist paradise from arriving: the Age of Obama has begun!"

http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/30/hey-eeyores-how-good-are-you-at-spotting-trolls/

Also from that post, dated October 30th:

"They are going to do what they did to Clinton supporters during the primaries: they will clobber you hard with Eeyore-inducing, concern troll logic the next few days in massive efforts to depress John McCain’s votes. Eeyores will email all of the troll logic around, spreading it — completely oblivious to the fact that this is exactly what trolls want you to do."

In other words, the game has already been seen and called out.

Meanwhile, looks like jharp and his fellow Obama campaign operatives are trying to run a get-rich-quick scheme over on Intrade, which should surprise no one.

[ET]

NDT,

stop wasting your time with jharp...remember, he has been in business for himself for 25 years and still can't break $250k per year. He is shilling for Obama so his kids can eat...with money you and I will send him through uncle barry's welfare.

you are overwhelming his simple mind with logic and reason, but he spends his considerable free time golfing and fishing rather than bettering himself for the sake of his family, so those concepts are foreign to him.

Poor, sad failure of a man.

[jharp]

NDT,

You are an idiot.

So what you're saying is intrade is being manipulated to make McCains chances look dimmer.

And yet you are too goddamed stupid to buy a contract on McCain that is a "steal" accordingly to you. You can buy odds of 9 to 1 when according to you it should be 50/50.

You are an utter moron. And a liar and a loser.

[North Dallas Thirty]

You are right, ET; you would think that someone who is as successful as he claims to be could make that much, especially given what he spends on alcohol and golf.

But then again, when you leave your "retard" daughter, as he lovingly calls handicapped children, sitting in her own feces and begging for food while you head out to play five rounds of golf and drink fifteen beers with your buddies, I suppose it makes sense a) why he can't break $250k and b) why he needs welfare from other people so badly.

[North Dallas Thirty]

"So what you're saying is intrade is being manipulated to make McCains chances look dimmer."

Nope; what I'm saying is that it's being manipulated so that people who bought Obama can cash out prior to the election and make a profit. The higher his values go, the larger their margin and the more they make.

Wouldn't surprise me if we see a run on McCain in the last portions of eligible trading, either.

"And yet you are too goddamed stupid to buy a contract on McCain that is a "steal" accordingly to you. You can buy odds of 9 to 1 when according to you it should be 50/50."

Again, jharp, you seem destructively obsessed with getting me to put good money into a game that, as I pointed out, is foolishly easy to manipulate and has zero in the way of safeguards. Frankly, your tone, including your calling me "moron" and "loser", is not unlike all those frantic "stock tips" that used to keep clogging my email box until I simply started forwarding them to the SEC for their review.

What's the matter? Is your moneymaking scheme collapsing? Are you and your buddies going to have to get a job at Burger King rather than sending Internet "tips" from your dorm rooms?

[Totally Heterosexual Conservative]

"wait...what about the liberal crybabies who tied up the florida results in the courts after gore lost? you predict conservative terrorism? what a fucking tool. you are the idiot supporting a fascist. Iron your brownshirt, patriot!"

Tisk tisk, such naughty language from such a pure moral being. That, coupled with your pig-ignorant grasp of history makes you easy to mock.

The more you morans squeal, the more us real Americans will enjoy this election. Thank you for assisting our pleasure!

[North Dallas Thirty]

Actually, the amusement value has come from how many Americans realize that the media will do anything to help Obama win and are slanted heavily against McCain.

http://people-press.org/report/463/media-wants-obama

[IslamoLlama]

NDT isn't going to consider this election legit if you have every registered voter personally spell out who he voted for and why he voted. He's a lost cause who will cry "voter fraud" (translation: poor people, blacks, college students, and party-traitor Republicans shouldn't be allowed to vote!) till he is blue in the face.

McCain isn't going to win and North Dallas would rather believe it is because George Bush is a beloved President in the midst of a massive media-instigated and George Soros funded electoral coup (even worse than the one that happened in 2006) than that a Democrat might actually win the popular vote AND electoral college without a third party spoiler like Ross Perot on the ballot. It's just too inconceivable, the idea that hundreds of millions of Americans refuse to swallow the claims that Barack Obama is a secret foreign born Hamas militant super communist hell bent on raising everyone's taxes out of sheer sadistic glee. FOX News endorsed John McCain, ergo John McCain SHOULD be winning the election. End of story.

And frankly, I'm in agreement with NDT. It's all a grand conspiracy - smoke and mirrors - put on by the MSM to usher in a new Caliphate of high taxes and roving Atheist death squads that will result in the Second Coming of Christ Jesus the Lord and Savior Who Is Totally Fantastic And Hates the Gay. So I embrace Obama, because in his Anti-Christ-ship we will see the End of Days, the Glorious Resurrection, and the Pearly Gates of White People Heaven opened before us.

Heil Obama!
Look, he even gave me a special tatoo when I voted for him. Hmmm... 666. Hurray!

[North Dallas Thirty]

Pity you didn't read a bit farther up this thread, IslamoLlama.

http://www.riehlworldview.com/carnivorous_conservative/2008/11/where-things-really-stand.html#comment-137521255

Meanwhile, certainly you and your fellow Democrats can agree that votes cast under the name of dead people are illegal and that the Secretary of State for Ohio, an Obama supporter, should not be blocking the release of key information to ensure that this doesn't happen.

http://www.newsnet5.com/news/17859950/detail.html?rss=nn5&psp=news

Certainly you and your fellow Democrats can agree that Obama campaign workers who register to vote illegally and who cast illegal ballots are breaking the law and should be punished.

http://www.morningjournalnews.com/page/content.detail/id/506245.html?nav=5006

Or you can fall back on the usual Democrat tactic when their voter fraud and voter registration fraud are exposed and scream about how preventing the dead from voting, preventing Obama campaign workers from voting illegally, and preventing people from submitting and using fraudulent voter registrations constitutes "voter suppression".

Looks like you chose the last.

[Worst President Ever]

Obama's going to win with the help of folks like - Republicans all - Colin Powell, Ken Duberstein, Christopher Buckley, Doug Kmiec, Lincoln Chafee, Scott McClelland, William Weld, Arne Carlson, Susan Eisenhower, Fred Bramante, Ken Adelman, Michael Smerconish

But McCain pulled in this one: http://tinyurl.com/6fybza

[North Dallas Thirty]

"Obama's going to win with the help of folks like - Republicans all - Colin Powell, Ken Duberstein, Christopher Buckley, Doug Kmiec, Lincoln Chafee, Scott McClelland, William Weld, Arne Carlson, Susan Eisenhower, Fred Bramante, Ken Adelman, Michael Smerconish"

All of whom, WPE, you and your fellow Democrats called ignorant and uneducated shills when they were supporting Republicans.

I believe the usual description for Colin Powell by racists like yourself, Jharp, and Barack Obama was "Uncle Tom".

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/4/12/183155/559

[Worst President Ever]

No, I've never called Colin Powell - or any black man "Uncle Tom". Or any other derogatory racial term you can conjure up.

How about you? What are you calling Powell these days?

[North Dallas Thirty]

"No, I've never called Colin Powell - or any black man "Uncle Tom". Or any other derogatory racial term you can conjure up."

Sure you haven't. After all, Obama supports and endorses it, as we see by how readily his political mentors use it.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/elections/1124667,CST-NWS-dem25.article

And we also know how Obama and his supporters act towards any black person who opposes them.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/02/black_hillary_supporters_may_b.html

http://www.blackbusinessspace.com/forum/topic/show?id=820753%3ATopic%3A433536&page=1&commentId=820753%3AComment%3A439007&x=1#820753Comment439007

But of course you support this, because you endorse and support Obama and his belief that anyone who is black that does not vote for him is a "race traitor".

As for what I'm calling Powell, that's easy; "Colin Powell".

[Todd]

Dude, yes I know what a spot contract is. I traded spot foreign currencies for 15 years.

Now, as far as manipulating markets. Obviously, this can be done but someone would only do it on an open-ended market, not a market that would settle tomorrow. That's just totally insane unless you don't care about your money. If you try to manipulate a market that settles tomorrow, you might as well burn your money or chuck it in the sewer.

But, I know there's no convincing you no matter how logical or correct my answer is. You'll just keep spitting out the gibberish that you copied and pasted up there.

The latest Intrade trade in Pennsylvania is showing Obama with a 90% chance of winning. Read it and weep, sucker.

[Worst President Ever]

You post the same links, over and over and over and over. Your posts are a mirror image of the train wreck of a campaign McCain's run. Attack, hate and fear aren't what the voting public's interested in - We've had our fill of that for the past eight years.

But since you work for the guy, you already know how badly tomorrow's going to go. Try showing a bit of class and respect Obama for what he's accomplished.

[North Dallas Thirty]

"But, I know there's no convincing you no matter how logical or correct my answer is."

Oh, there would be, if your answers were logical or correct.

But you keep trying to insist that futures markets can't be manipulated and that people can't do this over the course of a day, and I just keep shooting you down with evidence that they can.

"I'd like to give one specific example of how in a single day – January 31, 2002 – Enron used an unregulated, non-transparent internet trading system to manipulate the natural gas market in California. In August 2002, the FERC staff issued an investigatory report finding that out of a total of 227 trades on that day, 174 - or more than two-thirds of the trades that day - involved Enron and a single unnamed party. Most of these trades took place during the last hour of trading, with two parties buying huge amounts of natural gas from each other in numerous transactions. FERC determined that the trades took place at "higher prices" than other trades that day and resulted in a steep price increase over the last hour of trading."

http://www.senate.gov/~levin/newsroom/release.cfm?id=216595

"Specifically, the CFTC's complaint alleges that Shively, while with Enron, engaged in a scheme with other Enron traders to manipulate the price of natural gas in the Henry Hub next-day gas spot market (“HH Spot Market”) traded on EnronOnline, Enron’s electronic trading platform. According to the complaint, the scheme involved a plan to purchase an extraordinarily large amount of HH Spot Market natural gas within a short period of time on July 19, 2001, causing prices to rise artificially. The complaint further alleges that immediately following the pre-arranged buying spree, Enron began unwinding its HH Spot Market position and prices declined in that market while Enron unwound its position.

According to the complaint, Shively took various actions, including agreeing to cover trading losses of, and directing a payment from an account he controlled to, other traders involved in the scheme. As alleged in the complaint, the manipulation of the HH Spot Market had a direct and adverse effect on the New York Mercantile Exchange August 2001 natural gas futures contract (“NYMEX Henry Hub Futures”), including causing prices in NYMEX Henry Hub Futures to become artificial.

Shively sought to dismiss the manipulation charge because, he argued, it failed to state a claim upon which relief could be granted. The court refused to dismiss the claim, holding that, for the purposes of Shively's motion, the CFTC had sufficiently alleged facts showing that: (i) Enron had the ability to influence prices in the HH Spot Market and in the NYMEX Henry Hub Futures Market; (ii) artificial prices existed in those markets on July 19, 2001; (iii) Shively was the proximate cause of the price artificiality; and (iv) Shively intended to manipulate prices on July 19, 2001. The court further upheld the CFTC's ability to go forward with its alternate claim against Shively for attempted manipulation."

http://www.cftc.gov/opa/enf04/opa4899-04.htm

Again notice the words -- "In a single day", in the first one, and "to manipulate the price of natural gas in the Henry Hub NEXT-DAY gas spot market" in the second.

So that nicely disproves your screaming attempt to argue that "someone would only do it on an open-ended market, not a market that would settle tomorrow" -- because it's obvious that not only did they do it, they made a handsome profit off doing it.

So, "dude", looks like, despite your alleged "15 years" of experience, you don't know squat. And again, why are these commentors using lingo that sounds like it's coming from stoned-out college freshmen swarming all over these blogs trying to coerce people into putting money into Intrade? Again, it's like those bad stock tips with half the words misspelled.

[North Dallas Thirty]

"Attack, hate and fear aren't what the voting public's interested in - We've had our fill of that for the past eight years."

Which is, of course, why it's exactly what the Obama campaign has been doing -- as those links showed.

Not to mention these others.

http://cbs2.com/local/Sarah.Palin.mannequin.2.849299.html

http://radioequalizer.blogspot.com/2008/11/obama-supporter-kgo-libtalker-calls-for.html

Meanwhile, what I can respect Obama for doing is recognizing correctly that white liberals will do, say, and ignore anything to advance a black person, regardless of that person's competence or suitability, out of some misguided sense of guilt.

But since I believe a person should be judged on their competence and suitability regardless of the color of their skin, I cannot support what he did with that knowledge.

[Todd]

Obviously you have zero understanding of how financial markets work.

Enron wasn't trading in contracts that expire tomorrow with a finite outcome. Enron was manipulating electricity markets on a spot basis and in futures markets with expirations much further out than one day.

It's apples and oranges.

And, please tell me how manipulating Intrade in favor of Obama would affect the outcome of the election. Do you actually think that there are alot of voters who follow Intrade markets and would be influenced by their pricing, and have McCain voters switch their vote to Obama so they would be voting for the winner?

[Todd]

Here's an idea for you NorthDallasThirty.

Since you obviously work for the Repubicans and since you obviously think Intrade is a manipulated market that could influence the election, why don't you take $10 million of Republican PAC money and go manipulate the Intrade markets.

See how much good it does. Maybe it can win the election for McCain. Why bother spending all that time, money and energy campaigning if all you have to do is manipulate Intrade to win it all?

While you're at it, manipulate all of the Senate elections, too. Maybe you can get Ted Stevens re-elected.

[North Dallas Thirty]

"Obviously you have zero understanding of how financial markets work."

And again, the Democrat Party minions whine that futures markets cannot be manipulated by people who have no intention of taking delivery or actually sticking around until contract close.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2008-06-23-crackdown-oil-speculation_N.htm

By the way, nice attempt to make yourself sound more adult by getting rid of the "dude"s and whatnot.

"And, please tell me how manipulating Intrade in favor of Obama would affect the outcome of the election."

The point is not to manipulate the election; it's to drive up the price to allow Obama speculators to sell out prior to taking delivery and still make a profit.

Just like Enron did in the aforementioned:

"According to the complaint, the scheme involved a plan to purchase an extraordinarily large amount of HH Spot Market natural gas within a short period of time on July 19, 2001, causing prices to rise artificially. The complaint further alleges that immediately following the pre-arranged buying spree, Enron began unwinding its HH Spot Market position and prices declined in that market while Enron unwound its position."

Simple and straightforward. You own a commodity at price x; if you can, through an artificially large buy, push its price up to y, you can unwind your position, aka sell out, and receive the difference between y and x. It can be done in one day, and it can even be done on things that are closing out the next day.

"Do you actually think that there are alot of voters who follow Intrade markets and would be influenced by their pricing, and have McCain voters switch their vote to Obama so they would be voting for the winner?"

Why else would you be posting it?

Unless, of course, your intention was also to try to coerce people into trading, just like how you get these "hot tips" from "insiders" on "can't-miss stocks".

[North Dallas Thirty]

"Since you obviously work for the Repubicans and since you obviously think Intrade is a manipulated market that could influence the election, why don't you take $10 million of Republican PAC money and go manipulate the Intrade markets."

Sort of like you've been doing, you mean.

Again, it's not about manipulating the election. It's about college kids like yourself and jharp who are trying to turn a quick buck. Collude, make a big buy, push and talk the price up, and sell out -- classic futures manipulation, and absolutely simple to do on Intrade.

[Todd]

"Why else would you be posting it?"

I post it because Dan Riehl keeps posting the one outlier poll that shows McCain has a chance, and Intrade shows he doesn't. Given Intrade's track record in 2004, it's very credible. That's why I post it.

"Again, it's not about manipulating the election. It's about college kids like yourself and jharp who are trying to turn a quick buck. Collude, make a big buy, push and talk the price up, and sell out -- classic futures manipulation, and absolutely simple to do on Intrade."

I don't bet on Intrade, but I follow it closely. And, I'm not a college student. I'm a guy in my 40's who is self employed in financial services. Which is why I understand that any manipulation on Intrade is a short term move, and has no bearing on the outcome of the election. If you are so naive to believe that I could successfully manipulate the Intrade market to make a profit on my trades by posting on Dan Riehl's World View, I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn, North Dallas Thirty. It's in very good shape, really. All yours for the bargain price of $10 million.

[North Dallas Thirty]

"I post it because Dan Riehl keeps posting the one outlier poll that shows McCain has a chance, and Intrade shows he doesn't. Given Intrade's track record in 2004, it's very credible. That's why I post it."

Or, in other words, you're trying to use the result to influence and drive down turnout -- just like Hillbuzz pointed out that the paid Obama trolls are doing.

"They’ll say things like, “Well, McCain did have a surge in the polls and he is a good candidate, but now Zogby and Rasmussen say this race is over because Obama is so far ahead.” Their MO is to try to stike some psychological affinity with you, agreeing on some point, before casting an Eeyore spell over your gullible self and bringing you down with troll lies. Their hope is to spook Eeyores to stampede, and call or email all of their friends in panic. “Trolls told me we should give up and I listened because the trolls said it and I read what they said and now I need my dydee changed because I am the world’s most gullible 45-year old!”. And your Doorman or whoever is staring back at you wishes he never met an Eeyore such as yourself. Enough with the pants wetting over things trolls tell you.

And, if you haven’t figured this out by now, you deserve to be called stupid by us, because the biggest concern trolls OF THEM ALL are the mainstream media. The biggest Eeyores we know park themselves in front of MSNBC and wail and cry throughout the day, gnashing their teeth and pulling their hair, despondent the concern trolls on the Obama propaganda channel keep telling them to SURRENDER! because “all hope is lost, you can’t possibly win”. MSNBC tells Eeyores there is nothing any of us can do to stop Obama’s socialist paradise from arriving: the Age of Obama has begun!"

http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/30/hey-eeyores-how-good-are-you-at-spotting-trolls/

"If you are so naive to believe that I could successfully manipulate the Intrade market to make a profit on my trades by posting on Dan Riehl's World View, I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn, North Dallas Thirty."

People post "hot tips" all the time to try to manipulate stock or futures prices up; it's called "pump and dump".

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/032507dnmetsecinvestigate.40477d8.html

Amazing that someone who's "self-employed in financial services" wouldn't know that.

But given that most of this stuff happened in 2004 and later, it wouldn't be surprising that a hotshot college kid wouldn't be aware of it.

[Worst President Ever]

What a tool. Increased turnout helps Obama. Duh. Republicans - the party that tried to revive the poll tax - are the ones that specialize in driving down turnout. They hate when all those poor folks vote. It makes elections so damn democratic.

NDT's posts are getting increasingly delusional, but correspondingly funnier - I can hardly wait until the Obama landslide's official. That should push NDT over the edge and he'll lose his last remnants of rational thought.

Get ready for it, tomorrow it's President-Edlt Barack Hussein Obama.

[ShiddyButt]

One more fact:
This is the bed you idiots made and you will lay in it.
I hope you all enjoy your much deserved political exile.

[Todd]

"People post "hot tips" all the time to try to manipulate stock or futures prices up; it's called "pump and dump"."

Here's a hot tip for ya Dallas : Barack Obama in a landslide. You don't have to listen to me, just read the polls. And, yes, you'll go into denial over them. But, once the election returns are in you won't be able to deny that.

It's over for John McCain and Sarah Palin.

OVER.

[North Dallas Thirty]

And out comes the seven-year-old that lives inside all liberals, stamping their foot and shrieking "I'm right, I'm right, I'm right".

Yeah, whatever. See you on Wednesday. :)

[Tom in CA]

jharp

Give it a rest there lil' feller.

Tomorrow we will all find out.

You certainly deserve that extra bowl of gruel for your fine work, indeed. Really, you need to consider switching to the conservative side, we pay more. Do you find yourself asking whether the guy in sweatbox next to you is getting a few extra dollars on his paystub? Really, it is better on the other side.

Tom in CA

[WBestPresidentEver]

McCain may very well win this tomorrow. I have LOTS of HOPE.
The undecided will determine who wins it tomorrow. No doubt about it.
I hope they show up at the polls Tuesday.
I hope they stand up, stand up, stand up and FIGHT for AMERICA !
VOTE : JOHN McCAIN on Tuesday, November 4th ! BEST "MAN" for the job !

John McCain vs. Barack Obama
Release Date McCain Obama Undecided Spread
November 3 43.0% 47.5% 9.5% +4.5 Obama

http://www.tipponline.com/

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=310590948142998#polla

The above are the only trusted polling sites.
All the others are in BED with Obama.
And...Obama is enjoying it. LOL

About IBD/TIPP: An analysis of Final Certified Results for the 2004 election showed IBD's polling partner, TIPP, was the "most accurate" pollster of the campaign season. Learn more at www.TIPPonline.com.