Virginia Tied Up

Via Yourish - and according to the Richmond-Times Dispatch. Yes, I know Va has been considered Red. But it's been trending Blue for a while - Warner is running way out in front. If Obama hasn't put Virginia away, he still hasn't closed the deal. I expected Virginia to be off the table for the reasons above and because of its relatively high black population. It might sound contrary to the old CW, but due to the dynamics of the current race, a Va win is huge for McCain and at least suggests it isn't over for McCain in NC, Ohio and Pa.

The presidential contest in Virginia is heading toward a photo finish.

The final Richmond Times-Dispatch Poll of the campaign shows Sen. Barack Obama at 47 percent and Sen. John McCain at 44 percent. Nine percent are undecided -- an unusually large slice of the electorate. The profile of undecided voters suggests that some are potentially opposed to Obama.

Because Obama's advantage over McCain is within the poll's margin of error -- plus or minus 4 percentage points -- the contest in Virginia can be considered about even.

Comments

[jharp]

Chuck Todd, if McCain wins all the toss ups he loses.

Todd: Well, it's a simple math problem that he's got. Heres our columns here. Im going to put all of the current tossup states in McCain's column and watch his number as it grows right up here. If you move all of these states over, Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and Nevada -- you see the problem he's got. He's still at 252. 18 short. So what does that mean? If he pulls a Pennsylvania over, we see Obama goes down to 265, McCain gets his 273. Then you ask why New Hampshire? Thats the insurance policy. Nevada, a state that Obama right now has that narrow lead in, if that went to him, then McCain would need New Hampshire to get back over his 270. So it is the only path he's got left. They know this and that's why they had to figure out how to put Pennsylvania back in play. We don't know if it really is. We know he's spending a lot of time there and they had to figure out if New Hampshire, a state that's been incredibly kind to McCain's political career in the past, to see if it can resurrect him one more time.

[jharp]

You ought to drop in on Yourish.

Pretty funny stuff. Obama is leading in 13 polls, most of them by 9 to 11 percent.

[WBestPresidentEver]

Put a fork in it jharp. Hey sissy boy, get your "panties" out of that wad.
All the pollsters are in the tank with Obama. You know it, too !
Another trick to try and suppress voters.
You are the only real "idiot" I have seen on this blog. You come here and spout off and call people names and use profanity. Is that all you know how to do?
What is your address. I am sending you a bar of lye soap to wash out your filty mouth !

TIPP: OBAMA 46.7%… MCCAIN 44.6%… NOT SURE 8.7%… http://www.ibdeditorials.com/series13.aspx?src=POLLTOPN

[WileECoyote]

McCain will be making a last minute campaign stop tommorrow at Tri Cities Tn regional airport, which is right on the southwestern Virginia/ western North Carolina line. SW Va and WNC are both GOP strongholds where McCain really needs to get the vote out to have any chance of winning those states. Should be a big crowd there to greet him.

[mark l.]

hmmmm....

04 polls in VA.
survey usa bush +4.
mason dixon bush +6.
bush won by 8.2.

current?
surveyusa-obama +4.
mason dixon-obama +2.

both polls missed the margin by, 4.2 and 2.2 respectively, favoring the dem.
which would produce a narrow mccain win, should their mistakes prove consistent.

If mccain is close in a state that was 10pts a week ago, the possbility of mccain closing in other polls also bears consideration.

[WileECoyote]

I am convinced that had the stock/bank crash not occurred, and the bailout avoided, McCain would be up in this race. Obama hasnt closed the deal. Alot of swing voters still are not comfortable with him as POTUS. He hasnt consistently polled above 50% in the key states. He may still win a clear victory; or it could be a long long night tuesday. Tommorrow's tracking polls should be interesting.

[ET]

harpo, if it is such a slam dunk for the dumbo/bozo ticket, why are all of your heroes so nervous?

http://www.smh.com.au/news/us-election/defeat-fears-put-hollywood-on-edge/2008/11/02/1225560645086.html

[ET]

ladies and gentlemen.....presenting YOUR democratic ticket, dumbo the arrogant and bozo the clown!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/11/ego_and_mouth.html

[joeb]

I am thinking a big upset like Truman over Dewey in 1948. McCain looking better and better in Va. I am really hoping for the upset of all time. Then I want to watch what Oprah and MSNBC have to say. Crying will really be big on The View. Oprah will gain 100 pounds in a week.
Elizabeth will be run off the view by the nutjobs like Joy and Whoopi.
Keith Olbermann will blow his brains out on air on MSNBC.
The Washington Post will start with 16 stories about how racist the USA is.
If Obama does win like Bill Clinton did then Obama will have to actually do something besides make a speech. Will it then become Jimmy Carter all over again? Clinton was the biggest fraud ever. And Barack will top even that freak show. Happy Days Are Here Again. The asylum has offically been turned over to the inmates. The rat race is over if Obama wins. The rats have won! The great unwashed will have inherited the earth.

[jharp]

ET,

And you know who my heroes are how?

Funny thing. Just checked intrade.com.

AND McCAIN LOST GROUND TODAY!

It is now.....

Obama $89 wins you $11.

McCain $11 wins you $89.

I guess they didn't get a chance to read riehlworldview today and know that it's a tossup.

[North Dallas Thirty]

LOL.....funny how jharp and others are citing Intrade, where basically anyone who wants to put in enough money can influence matters in any way they choose.

Of course, jharp thinks that Intrade is a "scientific poll".

[Scrapiron]

The video and transcript (Jan 2008) is now out of Hussein O vowing to 'bankrupt' all coal fired power plants, and the coal industry. What will the democrats who elect a known Marxist do when their power bill goes up 5-600% and then they flip a light switch and nothing happens. The skyhigh increase in power bills will happen to everyone in the country and the lack of (power) light when the switch is flipped will happen to 49% of the people since 49% of the power in this country is produced by coal fired power plants. Just do a little google search and you can now find the transcript and the video/audio of Hussein's promise to the greenie's in Ca. I guess the democrats are ready to go back to 1861 and be in the middle of a civil war while reading by kerosine lamps. I have several for winter emergencies, but with no oil production coming on line will I be able to get the oil to burn them.

The Lame Stream Media outlet in the city of fruits and nuts, aka SF, chose to bury this information. I guess they are ready to live without electricity. Is everyone else? The Lame Stream Media elitest wonks are as crazy as their fellow democrats who are not very smart and totally crazy.

[jharp]

Of course, jharp thinks that Intrade is a "scientific poll".

Posted by: North Dallas Thirty | Sunday, November 02, 2008 at 06:25 PM

From the guy who doesn't even understand what a scientific poll is.

Nor has any idea what intrade actually means. Hint. On intrade real $'s change hands. Lot's of em. For a smart guy like you who understands that this election is close in spite of not one single pollster favoring McCain is should be viewed as a profit center.

Go for it. There is money to be made. $11 wins you $89. How can you possibly pass that up.

Unless you are as damn dumb about gambling as you have shown to be on everything else.

[North Dallas Thirty]

Go for it. There is money to be made. $11 wins you $89. How can you possibly pass that up.

For the same reason that I don't answer spam emails from Nigeria; if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

That, and I know how futures markets work, which Intrade itself discusses in this blurb.

"It's important to realize that you don't have to hold your contracts until the result of the event is decided - you can get out of your position at any time until the event is over. So if you change your mind about the outcome you can come back to the exchange, enter an order and close out your position, whether it's for a profit or loss depends on you."

Or farther down:

"Let’s take another example, you buy 6 contracts at 50 in the morning and sell them out at 73 later that day. You collect 23 points (73 – 50) times 6 contracts times $.10 for each point or $13.80 in profit.

23 points X 6 contracts X $.10 = $13.80"

The point in a futures market is not to take delivery on the contract; it's to sell the contract for more than you paid for it. The people who trade in pork-belly futures generally have no interest in actually getting the pork bellies; they are buying and selling the rights to the pork bellies in a gamble that eventually someone who needs the pork bellies will give them more than they paid for the rights to it. They make money off the margin between the purchase price and the selling price, not on the actual value of the pork bellies themselves.

It is in the interest of people who bought Obama to push up the price for Obama as much as possible, because doing so allows them to sell out at a profit well before the event itself.

[jharp]

NDT,

You are a moron. It's takes money on the table to influence intrade. It ain't pretend. And if you get your money in wrong there are some very smart people who will pounce all over it..

"That, and I know how futures markets work"

This I believe and you should have said no more.

You are a fool and your posts only confirm it.

And just to point out another example of your ignorance. You can hold the contract until after the election is over. Maybe your small brain can grasp that.

It's pretty simple. Lay down $11 today. Collect $100 Weds. An $89 profit in 3 days.

Please tell me your right wing brain can understand that.

[Lala]

OH WOW

Obama Called Out for Comments about Bankrupting Coal Industry
Posted: 7:27 PM Nov 2, 2008

CHARLESTON, W.Va. (WSAZ) -- With only hours before election day, coal has become a major topic of Decision 2008.

Sunday an audiotape surfaced from an interview Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama did with the San Francisco Chronicle in January.

http://www.wsaz.com/political/headlines/33726759.html

[Mark Turner]

It all depends on turnout, and absentee votes.

Heavy Dem + light to moderate GOP = Obama win
Heavy Dem + Heavy GOP = very close race, possible McCain win

[North Dallas Thirty]

"You are a moron. It's takes money on the table to influence intrade. It ain't pretend. And if you get your money in wrong there are some very smart people who will pounce all over it.."

Thank you for proving my point.

As I said before, the point in a futures market is not to take delivery on the contract; it's to sell the contract for more than you paid for it. The people who trade in pork-belly futures generally have no interest in actually getting the pork bellies; they are buying and selling the rights to the pork bellies in a gamble that eventually someone who needs the pork bellies will give them more than they paid for the rights to it. They make money off the margin between the purchase price and the selling price, not on the actual value of the pork bellies themselves.

When fools like yourself go in and offer to buy Obama contracts for $89, someone who bought Obama contracts for $50 will gladly "pounce all over it". They walk off and pocket 39 points per contract, which is a net profit. Hence it's in their interest to drive up Obama prices as much as possible, oftentimes by buying and selling multiple contracts at different levels.

Hence the other likelihood; corrupt Obama trolls like yourself are trying to game the Intrade market by talking up Obama and doing these sham trades to push up the price so that you can flip your lower-priced contracts and make a profit -- mainly because you're desperately trying to get out of your Obama positions. A couple of points today is better than nothing on Wednesday.

[jharp]

corrupt Obama trolls like yourself are trying to game the Intrade market by talking up Obama and doing these sham trades to push up the price so that you can flip your lower-priced contracts and make a profit -- mainly because you're desperately trying to get out of your Obama positions. A couple of points today is better than nothing on Wednesday.

Posted by: North Dallas Thirty | Sunday, November 02, 2008 at 08:36 PM

You are a moron.

And obviously have no understanding of intrade.

It's really quite simple. $11 to win on McCain gets you $100 on Weds.

What is so hard to grasp about that. Sure if it goes to $25 gets you $100 you can sell but that would take actual dollars placed on McCain and it ain't happening. That's why the odds are what they are.

Good grief. Our country is filled with imbeciles. And it keeps the GOP in business.

[North Dallas Thirty]

"You are a moron.

And obviously have no understanding of intrade."

Actually, I posted exactly how the process works above -- directly quoted from Intrade.

"It's important to realize that you don't have to hold your contracts until the result of the event is decided - you can get out of your position at any time until the event is over. So if you change your mind about the outcome you can come back to the exchange, enter an order and close out your position, whether it's for a profit or loss depends on you."

Or farther down:

"Let’s take another example, you buy 6 contracts at 50 in the morning and sell them out at 73 later that day. You collect 23 points (73 – 50) times 6 contracts times $.10 for each point or $13.80 in profit.

23 points X 6 contracts X $.10 = $13.80"

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/help/index.jsp?page=howitworks.html

You are the one who is lying and saying that you must hold contracts until the end. How much money did you waste on Obama? How will you explain to your handicapped daughter that her alcoholic father drank and gambled away all the family's money? Or will you just take out your frustrations on her directly?

[jharp]

"You are the one who is lying and saying that you must hold contracts until the end."

You are an imbecile.

My post. "Sure if it goes to $25 gets you $100 you can sell but that would take actual dollars placed on McCain and it ain't happening."

You do not have to hold the contracts until the end, just as I said in my post, you friggin birdbrain.

However you can if you choose to do so.

And right now you can wager $11 on McCain to collect $100 on Weds. That was and is my point.

Good grief. Is this really how friggin stupid our country has become? Go to school son.

[North Dallas Thirty]

LOL....and, as always, when caught in his lies, jharp starts screaming and pitching an insult fit. Next time, think twice before claiming that someone "doesn't know" something when they're quoting it directly from the instructions.

Perhaps we should think twice about provoking him; given his alcoholism and his hatred and loathing of disabled people, there's very little to stop him from treating his daughter as his fellow Obama supporters treat their children.

http://xpress.sfsu.edu/archives/news/004352.html

[Todd]

All tied up?? ROFLMAO.... Obama is 88 bid on Intrade to win...88% chance to win.

That's the kind of tie I just love !