So, Can McCain Win?

Update: Did McCain talk to his troops last week and tell them that, no matter what, they were all going to put on an optimistic face? Or are they seeing something in their internal polling that actually has bouyed their spirits in the final days?

Can McCain actually win this thing?

The short answer is yes. But what it will take for that to happen has to be considered a long-shot, at best - a long-shot because three variables have to come together in something of a perfect storm. Those variables are these.

Via The Campaign Spot:

By which I mean the decision they made to stake out — as Campaign Spot has noted — a remarkably bold position, that the Democratic Party turnout is not only going to exceed a recent historic advantage of 4 percent but go to 6.5 percent (Rasmussen) to 8 percent in many polls to even 12 percent in one.

If the pollsters got it wrong and Dem versus Rep turnout ends up being only +4 Dems, or less, that takes about 2.5% off of many of the polls we've seen. In 2004, turnout was even 37 - 37 percent.

That 2.5% error gives you a very different battleground state status almost instantly. The top seven states listed end up going for McCain. The really isn't such a big stretch, bringing McCain to 227 Electoral Votes through what would, on the surface, appear to be a very conventional and even modest Red versus Blue Electoral map.

But picking up those last 43 electoral votes won't be easy. That would require another effect. While a so-called Bradley effect remains controversial, there would have to be at least a small impact on voting brought about due to race.

If that yielded say another 2.5% benefit to McCain, you're now talking about projecting about 5 points across the states for purposes of the electoral map. That locks Ohio and Virginia into the map above, gets McCain to 260 and puts Colorado and Nevada very much in play.

An additional caveat to that - Obama has done a lot to hurt himself with Pennsylvania. From his bitter clingers remarks, to his coal industry blunder, it remains to be seen if those missteps have really hurt him in the Keystone state. If they have, that makes the whole thing quite possible for McCain. And that's where the last piece of the puzzle has to fall into place.

Undeterred by all the media hype, including the obvious outrageous bias this year, voters prone to supporting McCain have to actually be engaged, do the right thing and show up in numbers larger than pollsters anticipate.

That combination of events would give the presidency to John McCain.

Will it happen? I'm skeptical because I remember having similar feelings when Clinton ran against Bush Sr. I honestly didn't think America was going to elect that man over a War World II Vet. Guess what, they did.

With race a factor in this campaign in a way it never has been before, reaching a surefire final determination on the outcome is, to quote Obama, above my paygrade.

I guess we'll know by tomorrow night.

 

Comments

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

Clinton winning over Bush Sr. is not the best example. Clinton only got 42%. Perot's 19% was what gave it to Clinton. That and the death of Lee Atwater put the Bush campaign organization behind the 8-ball. The organization was in total disarray compared to the tight ship they ran in '88. Shoot, in my area, they never even remembered to order yard signs so there wasn't a single sign for Bush anywhere.

[LOL]

PRESIDENT Barack Hussein Obama

[mark l.]

It's a cascade effect...

win Pennsylvania,and mccain would likely win all the others.
win virginia and win all the others, excluding PA.
lose virginia and I go to bed early...and avoid the news for next two years.

I've seen intratrade being offered as a guide, although dems may have pushed the odds beyond what is rational...

but
PA obama has a 90% chance.
VA obama has a 85% chance.

I'd dispute the odds on VA, as it is much closer, but it still provides for, even with those odds, that obama has a 3 in 4 chance of winning both, mccain has a 25% of winning either(but probably virginia). If he does beat the odds, wins virginia, it will be an extremely long night for democrats, as a win in Virginia by mccain bodes well for his chances in all other states that didn't have the the luxury of a 9pt margin two weeks ago.

If he wins VA, I'll have to go get some Coors, and drink as much as I can till they call Colorado, potentially this years version of FL 2000.

long night or short night rests on VA.

I imagine there would be massive panic among dems should VA fall...

[jharp]

Hey mark l,

You stupid moron.

According to your math McCain has a 1.5% chance of winning both PA and VA.

And I dispute the odds in VA. It is not that close.

I'd get the Coors early. And see you in two years.

[WBestPresidentEver]

Winston Churchill wrote,
"Never give in, never give in, never, never, never, never - in nothing, great or small, large or petty - never give in except to convictions of honor and good sense. Never, Never, Never, Never give up."

Final IBD/TIPP estimates will be posted at midnight tonight (PST). 11/4/2008 @3:00am est.

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/series13.aspx?src=POLLTOPN

There’s always Hope,
there’s always Hope
There’s always, there’s always,
There’s always HOPE!

God Bless America !
God Help America !

[Bruno Laksevaag]

In the Norwegian paper I just read about Dixville Notch. 40 years gith GOP and now Obama.

[mark l.]

"According to your math McCain has a 1.5% chance of winning both PA and VA."

jharp...do you know anyhting about probability?

obama's chance in VA(85%) times his chances in PA(90%) is .765.

you are an absolute idiot if you do not understand this basic idea of probability. Clearly you don't.

When you play 'baseball' with andrew sullivan, do you pitch or catch?

[mark l.]

here's you mistake:

obama both: .765
obama pa, mccain va:.135
mccain pa, obama va: .085
mcain pa, mcain va: .015

if you wipe your bodily fluids off your screen you migth have read the above quote:

"...that obama has a 3 in 4 chance of winning both, mccain has a 25% of winning either(but probably virginia)."

I rounded the 25% up a tad, but for you to fail to understand this simple math leaves you little crediblity to use numbers at all. fortunately for you, the democratic party would have you.

[BR]

Quote: "And I dispute the odds in VA. It is not that close.
I'd get the Coors early. And see you in two years."

By media reports, that's statistically likely. Just like in 1994 ... remember what happened then? Democrats have to be given enough rope before they hang themselves.

[mary]

The U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops has hired forensic accounting specialists to investigate more than $1 million in church funding to voter-registration group ACORN, fearing the money may have been spent in partisan or fraudulent ways that could jeopardize the church'stax-exemptstatushttp:" http://tinyurl.com/6fbyp9

[mark l.]

the funny thing about 94, was that it came two years after 1992.

I had to sit through every rag in circulation telling me that the loss of Bush 41 was the end of the Reagan era.
I really chuckle when I'm seeing the same mags, with half their circulation telling me that 'this' election is the end of the reagan era, 14 years after they had already reported its demise.

the cycle of the media missing an election every 14 years is about to play out. They blew 1980, they blew 1994, and now they may very well blow 2008.

Just took a peak at the fox numbers from CO, yes obama is leading by 4, but a few questions that mccain did very well on...

would you be comfortable if the candidate won?
mccain 68%, obama 56%.

which candidate do you trust?
mccain 48 obama 47. mccain actually gains 1, obama loses 3.

if mccain makes it thru va, co is going to be a strong possibility.

[Mark Turner]

If McCain gets a haevy GOP turnout nationwide (which is likely), he has a very realistic chance of winning. Otherwise, it's Obama's landslide.

[Mark Turner]

Just saw that the 21 registered voters of Dixville Notch, NH cast their votes and Obama won by a landslide. CNN was touting a headline that it was a "big boost for Obama" and that Dixville Notch had not voted Democrat since 1968 (Humphrey lost that year). If so, that would mean they also voted for the losers in 1976 (when Carter won), 1992 (Clinton won), and 1996 (Clinton again) -- that a 5-4 record -- not exactly a bell-weather indicator of elections!

[Bilby]

The final IBD/TIPP is out. It doesn't look good, but it doesn't make sense either, especially how they allocated the undecideds. http://www.ibdeditorials.com/series13.aspx?src=POLLTOPN

It shows Obama up 7.2%

[Mark Turner]

The bottom line is turnout. Nader, Barr, etc. will not be decisive factors this year, and their total level of support in any states that will matter is not significant. If you don't want Obama in the White House, get out and vote for McCain. That's how McCain potentially wins. Otherwise, it's Obama's walk in the park.

[Bilby]

Here's some very interesting reading I picked up from over at Ace's
http://seanmalstrom.wordpress.com/2008/11/03/toast/

[rightwingprof]

"The bottom line is turnout."

Exactly. In about 40 minutes, I head to work the polls. A heavy turnout in my voting district = heavy GOP turnout. I hope that would indicate a heavy GOP turnout statewide (PA). Certainly, I expect a heavy GOP turnout next door in the 12th -- if Murtha wins, it will be by a very narrow margin.

I'll report back around ten-ish, when I'm back from the polls.

[syn]

I find it odd that Team Obama blew through $600 million, had MSNBC and all of Hollywood campaigning for him, had the media cover for him and yet Obama could not close the deal; with all this behind should not the numbers for him be higher.

So if Obama does win by nose it's not really saying much considering what it took to get him there.

I still say that if Obama is elected he will be Impeach within two years; Libs lifestyle of daily yoga classes, weekly botox sessions, eternal supply of steroidal youth juice, extravangant nightly dining plus a closet full of Jimmy Choo and Manolos and let's not forget that vacation every other week is expensive upkeep and Libs do not know how to do without.

They will come to hate Obama's change and will proceed to recify their situation, it's not going to be pretty for Obama.

It is one thing to dream, it's another when you have to pay for that dream. Libs have most the money which means they'll be losing all their wealth to Obama's dream of keeping everyone's money all for himself.

It's not going to be pretty for Obama.

[gimmeabreak]

I may be wrong, but my understanding is tipp doesn't do anything with cell phone users. Polls that do are usually higher on the Obama side. If correct, then tipp numbers may be skewed to McCain.

Not sure why folks think NH is a swing state. It's not. The southern half is a suburb of Boston and the state has been trending toward more liberal policies for the last 10 years or so.

[BobinStamford]

"Libs lifestyle of daily yoga classes, weekly botox sessions, eternal supply of steroidal youth juice, extravangant nightly dining plus a closet full of Jimmy Choo and Manolos and let's not forget that vacation every other week is expensive upkeep and Libs do not know how to do without."

That's right, and then there are angry losers like you. Off to work with you while you still have a job!

[Tom in CA]

jharp,

Getting a little testy, are we? Nervous lil' feller?

Tom in CA

[Fred Beloit]

"...yet Obama could not close the deal; with all this behind should not the numbers for him be higher." By syn.

I suggest this may be because the entire mantra of the leftists is rife with lies.

Here is just one more example from today's Wall Street Journal:
"According to the six-year narrative of the press and political class, the Bush Administration's counterterrorism policies fall somewhere between the Spanish Inquisition and the Ministry of Love in "1984." So it was something of a shock to read a remarkable front-page story in the New York Times yesterday, the abridged version being: Never mind.

In their 1,600-word dispatch "Next President Will Face Test on Detainees," reporters William Glaberson and Margot Williams discover that, gee whiz, many of the prisoners at Guantanamo Bay really are dangerous terrorists. The Times reviewed "thousands of pages" of evidence that the government has so far made public and concludes that perhaps the reality is more complicated than the critics claim."

[BobinStamford]

I love the insightful campaign analysis here. Cmon, call it for Allen! You know you want to!!

Macaca wins '08!

[Anon]

I'd say there is no way McCain wins PA, PA is a lot more Democratic than its 'swing state' reputation indicates. He could/should/might win Florida, if he loses VA though, I agree, no way he can win. NH was always going to go for Obama, it too isn't that much of a swing state.

The blame for this coming debacle lays at the feet of George W. Bush, DeLay and Frist....the three dopes who together ran the Republican Party straight into the ground, of course they had a lot of help from their Republican allies....all of whom appear to have abandoned John McCain. Weird.

Who would have thought after so much of the far left's ideology had been WHOLLY discredited that they would be on the verge of sweeping into power and enacting any number of wealth redistribution schemes and 'help the poor' schemes all proven failures.

Like I keep saying, add the Republican Party to the long list of things destroyed by Bush and Cheney. Who woulda thunk it.

[Fred Beloit]

Anon (clever nick by the way), I think you have forgotten to give proper credit, though it is still a bit early on election day, to Big Media (BM) for encouraging the Bush/Cheney derangement disorder. History will to a large degree vindicate these two, but for now the the BM has suicide-bombed them pretty badly, destroying their reputations and BM's reputation as well.

[Anon]

I have to disagree that history will vindicate Bush and Cheney..even if Iraq ends up being a stable, quasi-democratic country history is still going to judge that the price we paid was too high. I don't see any vindication coming for the executive power grab, in fact, I see my worst fears coming to fruition, which is that a future president {Obama} will take Bush's template of ignoring checks and balances to a new level. Nor do I see vindication coming for the horrific record on the enviroment.

I will credit the media will having dealt the death blow to John McCain's campaign, though...once they decided Sarah Palin had to be destroyed then all bets were truly off...NEVER have I seen such a level of bias, not even the negative stories on Bush reach the level of the McCain negative stories. What this means in the long run, who can say.

[Tom in CA]

jharp,

Where are you lil' feller?

Sleeping in?

Come on, get up, I need someone from the intelligentsia to guide me through the day.

Tom in CA

[rightwingprof]

396 votes in the first three hours. That's good. Lots of GOP voters. No sign of an unusually high "youth" vote. Nothing funky. The poll is being run professionally and fairly.

[Fred Beloit]

Anon, you write:"...history is still going to judge that the price we paid was too high."

Just how much is it worth to keep war, death, mutilation, and destruction away from the U.S. and across the seas? Don't you recall 9/11? And how much is it worth to keep our enemies in an indefensible position? We take out a world map and look between Iraq and Afghanistan. What do we see? Why it is Iran, looking right and left at U.S. military forces. Does this help you understand why the U.S. needs to keep forces in Iraq?

[Fred Beloit]

Jut returned from voting about half an hour ago. The voting facility I use in Panama City Beach, FL, had lines one person deep. They checked my driver's license, verified my residence against my license by asking my address while my license was in their possession, had me sign under my name in a printout. Then I was sent to a nearby table to get my ballot, went to a booth, voted, turned the ballot in. No muss. No fuss. Wonder how this compares with the experience of others.

[seekeronos]

"--- Not sure why folks think NH is a swing state. It's not. The southern half is a suburb of Boston and the state has been trending toward more liberal policies for the last 10 years or so. ---"

Add in the amnesty factor, and the gay marriage factor (i.e. state legitimisation of negative population growth, and destruction of morality) ... and the nation will drift even further toward godlessness and socialism.

[Anon]

I live in a Blue State and no ID was asked for when voting early this morning, yeah, that's right, NO ID, no verification whatsoever, show up, state your name and go vote. Unbelievable!

Fred, Iraq was never a threat, Hussein would never have attacked U.S. soil like Bin Laden did, I will never be convinced that the Iraq war was anything other than a complete waste of American money, lives, resources and prestige.

It turns out that Wall Street has done more damage to the U.S. than 9/11 did, so what does that tell you? All great nations and empires always rot from within first, they are never destroyed from without. The same will hold true for this country, our real enemy isn't a bunch of Muslims in the Mideast but our own apathy, greed and abandonment of our traditional Democratic principles.

[mark l.]

"The polls will likely predict the winner this year, too. Obama is by all accounts the favorite. But, and this is essential to keep in mind, the polls might well be wrong. Steven Schier, a political scientist at Carleton College, told the Washington Post that he estimates that McCain has a 25-percent chance of winning. (That sounds about right to me)."

"he estimates that McCain has a 25-percent chance of winning"

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MDdiYjBhNjg1MmI4ZmYzOWYxZGMwODAyODQyOTViZDI=

you don't say.

[Todd]

So now we know it was just spin. McCain got his ass kicked all across Pennsylvania and without Pennsylvania he had no chance. He wasn't going to run the table in all the 2004 red states, especially including Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico with the polls being very lopsided.

Just goes to show you can only spin so much until reality sets in.