Has Obama Given Up On PA?

I appreciate the way Ambinder spins this, but does it really make sense?

If it's All About Pennsylvania.... Then the Obama campaign is betraying a certain confidence. At this point, there are no plans for Sen. Obama to visit the state between now and Tuesday.

Perhaps, but if Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon have it right, PA is only plus Obama by 4%.

Obama is in Nevada. The two latest polls have Obama up from 4-5 points there.

Meanwhile, right next store to PA, Ohio might be also only at plus 4 Obama.

If you're going to campaign in a state in which you are up by four on the last weekend, why wouldn't it be in an area where there are a total of 41 EVs at stake, instead of only five?

Obama is also going to be in Missouri. It's either tied or has McCain up by a few for a total of 11 Evs. Wouldn't you rather be in Florida - clearly in a weaker position than Nevada but offering a total of 27 EVs?

Obama is giving McCain/Palin a free run at Ohio, PA and Florida, they're getting good crowds and he's fighting for two smaller states showing about the same lead within the MOE?

Maybe it is a victory lap, I don't know. Or maybe both campaigns know something we don't. It wasn't that long ago that Rendell was calling for principles to visit PA. Bill Clinton went and drew one fifth the size crowd of Palin the next day.

If there's any kind of increase in middle class white voters, Republican or Democrat, uncomfortable with Obama on issues of race, all these projections of a coming Obama landslide are going down the tubes. And with his illegal-resident Aunt making news this weekend, it can't be helping that cause.

Given the comparable numbers, at the very least I would expect Obama to visit PA, FL or maybe Ohio just to ensure a lock, especially with his opponent all but living there and now running an equal number of ads.

I agree with Ambinder that his absence does speak volumes. But I'm at least somewhat less convinced about what it says. There was no early voting in PA. The time to get that vote out is now. And Obama isn't there ... after losing it to Hillary in the primaries.

Figure that one out with absolute certainty, because I can't.

Comments

[jharp]

"Figure that one out with absolute certainty, because I can't."

I'm glad to help you with this one.

It's over in Pennsylvania. Obama has it locked up. Along with over 300 other electoral votes.

http://www.pollster.com/polls/pa/08-pa-pres-ge-mvo.php

[joeb]

It is quite funny that John Conyers is more upset about the "leak" about Obama's illegal immigrant problem than the fact of the illegal immigrant itself. Ha Ha Ha.
This should sway a few undecided voters to vote for McCain. As I have said win or lose the Democratic Party is the party of scandals! And this is just the beginning. I almost wish they would win so I could laugh at them when the troubles hit and they have to start playing defense and explaining their snafus.

[Steven W.]

I sense McMentum on McCain / Palin side and Arrogance on the part of Obama. The last poll(s) in PA not only show 4% difference within margin of error ... there were 9% undecideds. I believe up to 85% of undecideds will go to McCain and 3% - 4% of stated Democrats will so choose given the silence and solitude in the voting booth. One - in this case Obama and his surrogates - can only call people ignorant redneck racists for so long without some kind of final backlash. If things are closing this hard then it's inevitable similar moves will be felt elsewhere ... and it's clear from the latest on the stump from both sides that Barack Hussein Obama is losing his mojo. That's why the Friday eve. poll from Zogby was so important - that's the last poll of the last week that typically warrants Zogby's Secret Sauce and most accurate depiction of the race he can point to afterwards in the event things don't turn out how the rest of the media is hoping / projecting. IMO it's still a longshot given the odds but a real strong bet - I believe McCain / Palin will stun the punditry and win the presidency in 2008 :)

[jharp]

"I believe up to 85% of undecideds will go to McCain and 3% - 4% of stated Democrats will so choose given the silence and solitude in the voting booth."

And I believe you are a dumbass and pull numbers from your rear end.

There is no evidence, none, nada, zilch, zero, to support your ludicrous claim.

Maybe you and mark l should get together and compare your poll analysis. Dumb and dumber.

[PA]

He doesn't want to be faced with protests by bitter clingy gun toting racists in PA.

[jharp]

"The bitter clingy gun toting racists" have been reduced to irrelevance. And you forgot the bible clingers who are also now irrelevant.

And all of America is better off for it.

[EyeDoc]

It's not that hard to figure out what's going on. Obama knows that he won't win PA, OH or FL, so he's not wasting more time there. It looks like IA and NH are going to be a loss for Obama as well. His only hope is to try for NV, COL, MO, VA and hope he can win enough of them to pull it off. It's probably not going to happen.

[Mark Turner]

In the last 7 elections, the media and the polls were predicting and hoping for Democratic victories - and the GOP wound up winning the presidency 5 of 7 times. Considering that the Democratic candidate this year has very little substance of track record behind his words -- some of which have been wildly inaccurate statements about his own experience and background, it certainly doesn't follow that this year will be a landslide victory for the Dems in terms of the presidency, or necessarily a victory at all.

[EyeDoc]

The undecided voters will break for McCain by about 4-1. It's not like we don't know who these undecided voters are. The vast majority of them are rural white voters. These voters will break for McCain by about 4 to 1, just like they broke for Hillary Clinton 4 to 1 in the Democratic primaries. Anyone who thinks Obama is getting many of these undecided voters is not rowing with both oars in the water.

[Mark Turner]

EyeDoc:

I agree; could be the Bradley Effect in action. With some polls suggesting up to 10% undecided voters just days before a major election, I have to be a bit suspicious -- very few people are that clueless or indecisive. I think a lot of McCain supporters are keeping their mouths shut because they don't want to be hassled or labeled as "racists" by the Obama crowd.

[mary]

He is so sure that the Governor of PA will deliver the votes a la Mayor Daly in Chicago rumor has it that he decided that he doesn't need to go near PA again. According to the rumors, PA is so "in the bag" that he is going to Nevada, particularly concentrating on Henderson, right near Vegas. They have had a tough time with home values and he is flooding, literally flooding Henderson Nevada with constant busloads of workers from Los Angeles.

What is most disheartening to hear is his campaign worshipers saying that he just doesn't want to beat McCain?Palin, he wants to blow them out so badly, decimate them so entirely that the Republican party will be history. That is so difficult to listen to since even basketball team don't blowout the other team, though they can, as part of sportsmanship,

I started out wholly "in the tank" for Obama, contributions, cocktail fund raisers (on my dime) phone calls on my dime, campaigning, doing it all. For my own reasons I started to become disillusioned and now I am undecided. Dick Morris is right when he says people are deciding whether or not they are going to vote against BO. I got all this information today because they still think I'm totally for BO, they don't know I've gone into the undecided category.

Also learned today that they plan to use the NYC marathon to campaign for BO. Wonder if McCain/Palin will do that too. Was shocked that they were planning to do this cause isn't NY totally an Obamam state?

[jharp]

Eyedoc and Mark Turner,

You got any evidence to back up your ludicrous idiotic claims?

Hint. There isn't any. You are a couple of right wing hacks, and pretty damn dumb ones at that.

[Mark Turner]

Mary:

Hard to believe that PA is "in the bag" for Obama, unless he is counting on massive Democratic voter turnout from Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Harrisburg. Likewise with OH, FL, MO, VA and NC -- Obama needs massive voter turnout in the major cities (where the Democratic party dominates), and has to hope for only tepid response from the more rural areas of these states (where the GOP dominates). However, it is evident that the GOP is also energized against Obama in many areas. I suspect Obama's worried about NV and CO; and in the last election, NM went to the GOP despite substantial Dem leads in the polls.

[Mark Turner]

jharp:

-Obama is only a first-term senator with no demonstrable track record of leadership or as an agent of change at either state or national level

-Obama has no foreign policy experience whatsoever with our closest allies; his travels are limited to Africa, the Middle East, Indonesia (as a child, where he studied the Koran), and more recently a visit to Germany

-Obama once wholeheartedly endorsed a book written by William Ayers, has ties to the New Party (which has a socialist doctrine), and various other fringe characters in American society. This suggests a colossal lack of sound judgment with regard to his ability to lead successfully. Not to mention his links with ACORN, which admits to voter registration fraud.

...and this just scratches the surface.

[jharp]

Mark Turner,

You are an idiot. And you have no evidence to support your idiotic claim.

There is plenty of scientific evidence that contradicts every one of your lies.

Try www.fivethirtyeight.com

[mary]

Mark,

He is sending so many people to those big cities in PA. He is really really really expecting enormous turnout to the point where the democratic governor has to keep the polls open, maybe all night. His operation is so smooth, he already has people being driven to the polls by his worshipers. I know this cause a friend said her mom in PA is going to be driven to the polls by a BO supporter driving in from New Jersey, time set already and everything. The irony of this is that the woman is voting for McCain but is taking the ride from the BO supporters "cause they offered". But not many people will have the nerve to do that. Most people if they get help form BO will feel obliged to vote for BO and that is what they are counting on.

[jharp]

Mark Turner,

Thankfully a large enough majority of Americans finally see through the lies of the GOP and hacks like you.

It's over. At least 58 seats in the Senate. And an additional 30 seats in the House. And of course, the White House. All in favor of the Democrats.

Stay tuned. 2 or 3 Supreme Court Justices to follow.

[mary]

I am losing respect for Hillary. I can't believe after the way he treated her that she is out there campaigning for him. I mean she asked for some of his millions to pay off her campaign debt and that SOB told her no. She has enormous problems with men. She seems so strong and then she gives in. If I were her I wouldn't lift a finger to campaign for him, I'd let him flap in the wind. Can't help but wonder what he promised her and what he won't deliver after the election. We'll never know one way or the other but if I were Hillary I would not trust Barack and his peeps as far as I could through them.

[jharp]

"If I were her(Hillary) I wouldn't lift a finger to campaign for him, I'd let him flap in the wind."

Posted by: mary | Saturday, November 01, 2008 at 10:26 PM

That is because you are stupid. Hillary, on the other hand, is smart. That is why she is a United States Senator and you are posting anonymously on a web site devoted to right wing losers.

[bansharia]

mark,
you are correct in your take on PA as well as other states.
PA will go Mav/Cuda the election will be over when East Coast polls close
that said expect long delays ( buy extra champagne ) in reporting that reality.
to quote obambi " power does not concede " what a very arrogant misguided "man".

[Kevin]

As much as I want to believe that Obama's giving up on PA, I highly doubt that's the case. I do think Mac has a good shot at pulling it off, though.

[bansharia]

oh and PS,
the bitter gun/Bible "thingy" is far from dead and forgotten, it is HUGE in more states than just PA.

[bansharia]

mary,
nobody is being driven to the polls in PA we dont have early voting here.
also it is not up to fast eddie to keep polls open later a Judge would have to
decide that. Am not aware of any Gov that has that power albeit a few think they do ;)

[Lala]

Forced National Service - hahaha

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tt2yGzHfy7s

[bansharia]

Kevin,
obambi is under delusion that fast eddie and acorn has padded voter rolls enuff to win as well as his payment to philly blacks for getting the vote out will be enuff to counter the T ( a voting term for the rock solid GOP voters thru middle of state and along the top if you look at map ).
That will not happen, PA goes GOP this year.
Mary am sorry I misread your post as people were already voting vs that your Mom has arranged to be driven on tuesday.

[Jaded]

Hey jharp

You know WHY McCain is going to win?....because PRICKS like you support Obama and this Country only has a limited supply of PRICKS like you....I come here to read the story and comment and you a little PRICK are calling people names....now go to your little corner and pray to your Messiah BUT know in the back of your little PRICK mind that America WILL never elect a man as hardcore left as Obama!

[AdrianS]

All McCain ads are FULL STEAM AHEAD: Check-out the new ads from LET FREEDOM RING at
http://www.letfreedomringusa.com/pages/election-2008-tv-spots.

Let’s ELECT John McCain … Commander-In-Chief of the United States.

[Mark Turner]

jharp -

If you are so much more clever and correct than everyone else here, why don't you come up with a list of Obama's actual accomplishments and experience to counter my assertions? It doesn't sound like there's much substance behind your ramblings, just blind fanaticism.

With regard to sites such as fivethirtyeight.com, electionprojection.com, etc. -- these make predictions that are based upon publically available poll numbers, which as has been demonstrated in previous elections, are not an exact science, and sometimes dead wrong.

[Jaded]

I would also like to apologize for my language however I felt it was a necessary to flesh out the stupidity of the poster. If I offended anyone other than jharp....I do apologize.

[jharp]

"If you are so much more clever and correct than everyone else here, why don't you come up with a list of Obama's actual accomplishments"

Alright. How about this one.

He won the democratic nomination by running a brilliant campaign and has won over a large enough proportion of the electorate to stomp the GOP into irrelevnce by furthering his brilliance in the general election campaign.

Is that good enough?

[jharp]

Mark Turner,

I will have to admit that Obama didn't do it alone. He had the luck of running against the policy of the biggest failure and worst President in the history of our country.

But beating Hillary was still pretty impressive.

[mary]

Jharp, smoke and mirrors. And, he has been described in the press as having "handlers" so you know he is not making any decisions about the campaign. He and Joe the Senator are told to stick to the teleprompter and not to deviate from their message.

[Lala]

When you peel off the layers of signifying and symbolizing, of blathering and bamboozling, Obama lacks in the elemental qualities of manliness necessary to be President. Obama is like the onion in Peer Gynt. Take away the layers there's nothing at the core.

http://americandigest.org/mt-archives/american_studies/obama_not_man_e.php

[Brown]

Jharp - you really have no idea what you're talking about. I live in PA and let me tell you it is close here and you know why - because Democrats are pissed off at the Democratic Party for passing over Hillary (remember she won by 9%! in the PA primary election) and "selecting" (see PBC meeting in May, where they rigged the MI & FL vote for Obambi) the candidate who is INEXPERIENCED and UNACCOMPLISHED to run in one of the most important elections in recent times. IF you took a look at the Rasmussen poll, which just came out that shows Obambi up by 4pts - you would see that he is only pulling 75% of Dems. in PA - and guess what, those other 25% of Dems. - they voted for Hillary and now, they are voting for McCain.

McCain will win PA - because Obambi can't carry/won't Scranton area or the western part of the state that surrounds Pittsburgh. And oh, don't forget - that even in the cities (Philly and Pitts) where Obama NEEDS his big take, BOTH the mayors had supported HRC in the primaries. In short, no one here is thrilled with Obama.

He's not coming here because he's losing this state and OH and FL and he is trying to win 270 by picking up IA, NM, CO, NV, and VA - but here's the thing - if McCain keeps NV (which the early returns look good for him), McCain wins 273 to 265.

I agree election night if McCain wins FL, OH, VA, & PA - it's over - McCain has won.

[jharp]

I agree election night if McCain wins FL, OH, VA, & PA - it's over - McCain has won.

Posted by: Brown | Saturday, November 01, 2008 at 11:43 PM

He trails in all 4. And by significant margins in VA and PA(by 12 %).

You got any evidence to support your claim that it is close in PA?

It is you that has no idea what you are talking about. But if you feel so confident I highly recommend intrade.com. You can win $85 with a wager of $15. About 6 to 1.

And I have a prediction.

Obama in a landslide! And 58 dem Senators. And add 30 Dems in the House..

Soon to be followed by 2 or 3 Supreme Court Justices.

Conservatism is dead. A failure. Gone. Kaput.

[jharp]

Oh, and Brown, you're an idiot.

[jharp]

And for too ill informed to understand polls Brown I offer this.

Read it and weep.

http://www.pollster.com/polls/pa/08-pa-pres-ge-mvo.php

[Todd]

"I am losing respect for Hillary. I can't believe after the way he treated her that she is out there campaigning for him."

Two big reasons among many, Mary.
1. Hillary (and Bill) don't want to be blamed for the Democrats losing the White House in 2008. That wouldn't help her cause in 2012, if it came to that.

2. Sarah Palin. The idea of her being a 72-year-old-heartbeat away from the presidency is a chilling idea to Hillary.

"What is most disheartening to hear is his campaign worshipers saying that he just doesn't want to beat McCain?Palin, he wants to blow them out so badly, decimate them so entirely that the Republican party will be history. That is so difficult to listen to since even basketball team don't blowout the other team, though they can, as part of sportsmanship"

Welcome to politics in the US of A, Mary. With the history of the divisive, mean-spirited tactics of the Republican Party the last 8 years (Swift Boat ads, robocalls, suppression of the vote in Ohio in 2004 and Florida in 2000, perpetuating the myth Obama is a Muslion, m, Katherine Harris in 2000,Karl Rove, Ann Coulter, relentless character assasination and on, and on, and on), the Obama Campaign is right to be focused like a laser on blowing out McCain/Palin. Huge turnout by Obama supporters also filters down the rest of the ticket to local congressional and senatorial races, and they're acutely aware of that. It's a huge difference having 58 Senate seats vs having a filibuster-proof 60 seats. When you have a cancer, you use everything you have to stamp it out: chemotherapy, radiation, the kitchen sink etc etc. There is no room for complacency in this kind of environment. If you want good sportsmanship, I strongly suggest you join your local bridge club and tune out politics.

[North Dallas Thirty]

Furthermore, the experts in Obama tactics have already warned people of what's going on.
LOL...you would think a super-genius like Obama would know not to use the same tactics twice.

http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/31/three-things-the-obamedia-will-do-to-depress-republican-turnout-and-help-obama/

http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/30/confession-of-an-obama-blogger-by-sarah-p-as-posted-to-this-site/

http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/30/hey-eeyores-how-good-are-you-at-spotting-trolls/

Hillary was supposed to lose most states big, too. Turns out she came roaring back from polls that showed her losing just as badly in states like Pennsylvania.

It's all about Obama trying to disqualify his opponent and drive down turnout. Seems that the Messiah can't win on the merits, so he sends out trolls like jharp to throw public screaming fits and funky polls all over the place to keep people from voting.

[North Dallas Thirty]

Don't worry Mary; Hillary knows exactly what she's doing, and it's called "plausible deniability".

As I just showed, her supporters are doing exactly what they need to do to help knock off the incompetent fool that the Affirmative Action Party put up as their candidate -- and in the process, cut the legs out from underneath the leftist hatemongering race-baiters and cheats that took the nomination away from her.

Hillary comes back in 2012 as the leader of the Clinton redux -- a Democrat Party that has purged its leftist race-fixated minions like DailyKos and jharp/Todd, returned to its New Democrat roots, and has a fighting chance against the Republican incumbents.

[jharp]

"Hillary was supposed to lose most states big, too. Turns out she came roaring back from polls that showed her losing just as badly in states like Pennsylvania."

Been smokin the ganja tonight? Just what in the frack are you trying to get at?

"It's all about Obama trying to disqualify his opponent"

Do you mean stuff like accusing your opponent of being a muslim? Or palling around with terrorists? Or having a fake birth certificate?

"Seems that the Messiah can't win on the merits, so he sends out trolls like jharp to throw public screaming fits and funky polls all over the place to keep people from voting."

I'm just an ordinary husband, father, and businessman who cares about our country. And funky polls? Please put the bong away. I have cited the most reliable pollsters in the country if not the world.

Let's see some evidence that this thing is even close.

Hint. It's more rare than a George Bush supporter.

[PA]

"The bitter clingy gun toting racists" have been reduced to irrelevance."

You mean other than the fact that they can still vote?

[Todd]

"If it's All About Pennsylvania"

Even if your twisted logic is to be believed with many polls in PA showing 7-9% Obama leads, it's not all about Pennsylvania at all. With 2004 red states like Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Iowa and New Mexico (39 electoral votes in total) all trending to Obama, and 2004 red states like Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana,Ohio, Florida and even Arizona being neck-and-neck, the fact of the matter is that McCain has to run the table in all of those states. And even then, it looks like Obama has it in the bag. Kerry won 252 electoral votes in 2004 and Obama has a huge lead in those states with 39 electoral votes giving him a total of 291. There is not one 2004-blue state that McCain is challenging in.

It's so NOT all about Pennsylvannia. Obama can lose Pennsylvania and win comfortably. The last trade at Intrade.com has Barack Obama having a 30% chance to win more than 370 electoral votes. That means bettors are putting up $30 to win a payoff of $100 for a massive landslide. In fact, the last trade for McCain is a 15.2% chance to win the election. Bettors think there is twice as good a chance that Obama will win in a huge landslide as McCain has a chance to actually win the election at all.

[scarshapedstar]

"Obama is giving McCain/Palin a free run at Ohio, PA and Florida, they're getting good crowds"

Yeah, I saw the 100,000+ showing up to hear McCain speak...

...............not.

[jharp]

Something for you to sleep on tonight, North Dallas Thirty.

One of what you refer to as one of those "funky polls".

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111661/Gallup-Daily-Obama-52-McCain-42-Among-Likely-Voters.aspx

Can't wait til Tues. I believe I'll play golf before enjoying the election results. And I've been saving an excellent bottle of Frog's Leap Merlot for 6 or 7 years to enjoy after the GOP is sent packing.

[Dan Riehl]

jharp you really should look at the RCP averages - Va - +4, PA +4 - relying on media polls building in unrealistic turnout expectations might just disappoint you in the end.

[Todd]

Oops, my bad. Pennsylvania was a blue state in 2004.

Even still, if McCain wins PA that means Obama would still win 270 electoral votes, enough to win if the polls stand up in NV,CO,VA,IA,NM with Obama leading by wide margins. And, that's even if McCain would run the table in Florida, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina and Indiana.

[Todd]

Last real time trade at Intrade.com is 84% chance of Obama winning in Pennsylvania.

[North Dallas Thirty]

"Do you mean stuff like accusing your opponent of being a muslim? Or palling around with terrorists? Or having a fake birth certificate?"

No, more like Obama's claim that Trig Palin is not Sarah Palin's son, or that McCain was never a prisoner of war, or that all of the people in western Pennsylvania are racists.

"I'm just an ordinary husband, father, and businessman who cares about our country."

Actually no; if that were the case, you wouldn't be bragging about spending "five rounds" on the golf course on a daily basis and drinking "fifteen beers".

Obama trolls like yourself are merely children who have never worked or actually had a family. You pretend to do so in order to try to give yourself credibility, but as your words make clear, if you are a "husband, father, and businessman", you are the most alcohol-sodden, lazy, and uncommitted one in existence.

By the way, your claim to have a disabled child -- while you had previously namecalled and mocked them before -- didn't work either. Sorry.

[North Dallas Thirty]

And jharp, you obviously didn't read the fact that you and your fellow Axelrod trolls have been outed by one of your own.

"We pay people and organize people to go to all the online sites and “play the part of a clinton or mccain supporter who just switched our support for obama”

We do this to stifle your motivation and to destroy your confidence.

We did this the whole primary and it worked.

Sprinkle in mass vote confusion and it becomes bewildering. Most people lose patience and just give up on their support of a candidate and decide to just block out tv, news, websites, etc.

This surprisingly has had a huge suppressing movement and vote turnout issues.

Next, we infiltrate all the blogs and all the youtube videos and overwhelm the voting, the comments, etc. All to continue this appearance of overwhelming world support.

People makes posts to the effect that the world has “gone mad”

Thats the intention. To make you feel stressed and crazy and feel like the world is ending.

We have also had quite a hand in skewing many many polls, some we couldn’t control as much as we would have liked. But many we have spoiled over. Just enough to make real clear politics look scarey to a mccain supporter. Its worked, alough the goal was to appear 13-15 points ahead.

see, the results have been working. People tend to support a winner, go with the flow, become “sheeple”

The polls are roughly 3-5 points in favor of Barack. Thats due to our inflation of the polls and pulling in the sheeple."

http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/30/confession-of-an-obama-blogger-by-sarah-p-as-posted-to-this-site/

It's all a gamne, played by children like yourself at the behest of a childlike man who honestly believes his blackness gives him the right to lie, cheat, and steal his way into the highest office in the land.