Updated: Exit Polls, Etc

Update: Bad sign from Fox's Cameron - he talked about McCain as being a bit wistful lastnight, almost like saying goodbye. Those kinds of tells can be very telling.

More: Consider the source - McCain camp:

latest from inside Team McCain: Florida looks good. Ohio, Penn., Virginia and NC are too close to call.

Me: As superguru Mike Barone puts it, wait for real votes to be counted. But at the very least, this hardly looks like an Obama blowout. Still maybe a McCain win. TCTC.  Stay tuned. (You can check me out on CNBC tonight at 10 PM.)

More exit polls at Gawker here - looking more traditionally skewed. Obama by 15 in PA, etc.

But it makes no sense for PA to be plus 15 and Ohio tight. The states don't different that much. That leads me to conclude even more so that we can't put too much on the exit polls this year. There is no transparency to what precincts, samples we're seeing, etc.

The early exit poll data I saw on Fox was so disparate between VA, OH and IN - I'm even more leery of drawing a picture from it. Gawker goes with this:

See, we told you not to get too excited. The first state exit polls have crossed our transom and they look like Obama's margins are tighter than recent polling in key states Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. So hold your breath.

Obama +4 in PA

+2 In Va

-2 in NC

+1 in Fl

+1 in OH

Don't read too much into these polls. If they're skewed Dem as usual, it is great news for McCain. If, on the other hand, any adjustment caused them to go the other way, this could be bad news, too.

We need to wait until we see some real vote totals to know anything for certain.

Comments

[mark l.]

these exit polls are doing a very good job of suckering me into elevating my hopes...

considering that fox polled ahead to determine that dems would be far more likely to participate, I wonder if they 'weighted' the exit polls.

even stranger is the time of day...historically the early in the day vote has favored dems. hate to make projections off of exit polls, but to add to speculation, the early vote is usually the retired and elderly, which is the one the hearts of the dem base.

it's all meaningless, (unless you are dem), until VA is done.

[WAHOO WILLIE]

"-2 in NC"

I just don't see Obie taking NC, even with 1/3 blacks and hispanic population. He will do very well around RTP (that's Raleigh y'all) and "The People's Republic of Chapel Hill". Perhaps the artist community around Asheville were sober enough at some point during early voting to get theirs cast. The piedmont where all the textile mills used to be before Clinton improved China's economy will be hard to call. The coast? Obie would have to crowd all of his votes together to get a county. I've got a little town I'm watching, it's like 90% black and was flooded back in the mid nineties. James Witt and Slick Willie promised the moon and plenty o' money to the people's.....Then three years later GWB got them out of the FEMA trailer parks.......It's so fun to watch!

[jharp]

intrade.com

Obama $95 wins you $5

McCain $6 wins you $94

Ain't looking too good for Redneckistan.

[mark l.]

if the polls do prove wrong, I think the first major sign would have been the avgs showing mccain with only a 4 pt lead in his own state.

drudge is acting like they are ready to call AZ now.

[mark l.]

i'm with the wahoo on nc...

military voters are many, rural voters are many, religious(see rev wright) voters are many.

yes nc has a good african american population, but then john edwards, a dem senator from the state got his face rubbed in it in 04.

[WAHOO WILLIE]

I bet harpie has his mad dog in one hand and pepto bismol in the other......it's a real horse race in Indiana!

[WAHOO WILLIE]

Now, as much fun as it is to watch...especially Indiana....who the hell does MSNBC think they are, calling a state for one t'other candidate with only 10% of precints?

[mary]

What worries a lot of people is whether or not there will be massive cheating.

[WAHOO WILLIE]

"What worries a lot of people is whether or not there will be massive cheating."

LOLOLOLOLOLOL.....Mary, the dems can't even hold a vote inside the party without cheating......Can you say "we thought Hilda had it locked up"?

[mary]

no one is watching MSNBC so it really doesn't matter what they say. Most are watching FOX or CNN. Will watch CNBC tonight only cause dan will be on.

[Todd]

HOOHOO....NBC calls Pennsylvania for Obama.......HOOOHOOOOOOOOO

[Conservative in Cambridge]

how accurate are these exit polls? i was asked to complete one for CNN/AP today after voting and said that I'm a 22-year old hispanic woman making $200K and that I voted for Barr. In actuality I'm a 30 year old white woman making a fraction of that salary and I voted for McCain. Just felt like sticking it to the MSM.

[Todd]

Elizabeth Dole booted in North Carolina !!!!! Another rat diving into the icy cold waters off the Titanic...a.k.a. the Republican Party.....HOOHOHOOHHOHOHOOOOOOOOOOO

[WAHOO WILLIE]

Only 8% reported in NC, dont count aunt Liddy out yet. God! haven't the demonrats done enough to drive this state in the hole........Bev Perdue wins and I'm moving next door to da Boob.

[Todd]

She's toast !!! Stick a fork in her !!! Down with the ship!!!

[North Dallas Thirty]

And here comes the first admittance by Obama supporters of multiple voting.

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YWRiMWE5N2Q4NmI3ZmE5Y2Y3ZDQ4NzNmNWNkNTQwZmI=