Zogby Can't Catch A Break

With national polls running at around Obama +10, Zogby had it at from 3 - 5. I guess he adjusted his model today to get ten. Problem is, four other new national polls out today - Obama at +5.

Better late than never in Zogby's case, I guess. He gets the Drudge link - but is he right? Or will he have it at five tomorrow to show the McCain surge and get a Drudge link, again?

Hmm.

Comments

[mary]

It is sort of very concerning to think that pollsters look around at the other guys in the room and say "why am I the only one wearing a color, everyone is in black". And quickly run home to change. You would like to think that someone gathers their results, analyzes them, posts them and sticks by them. This isn't making my faith in pollsters grow.

[Looking Glass]

The Chicago Boyz explain this as the Parliament of Clocks.
http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/004879.html

"In order to maintain their power and position within society, articulate intellectuals must convince the larger population that they really do have a superior understanding of the issues they study. The do so using a parliament of clocks. By enforcing rigorous conformist standards on their members, they seek to create the illusion of accuracy by making it appear that all people knowledgeable in a particular field all reach the same conclusion. If all the supposed experts in a particular field all tell the same story the lay people are much less likely to guess that none of the experts know what they are talking about."

More at the link. It's worth reading.

[mary]

In the vein of "changing your mind" drudge also links to this item:

"Obama Tweaks Tax Plan to Rebut McCain
October 21, 2008 9:21 PM"

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/10/obama-alters-ta.html

This kind of stuff scares me because I worry that BO will meet with representatives from other nations and then, instead of sticking to US policy, tweak it to accommodate the meetings. Which to me would indicate weak leadership.

[hdtv]

Alot of this data is iffy. Take a look at RCP for ND. It's showing RCP average of McCain +4, But it uses poll data from 9/08 to get that number. That poll data is useless. It's looks more like ND could in fact go Obama.

[Jake]

"Which to me would indicate weak leadership."

That is very profound, Mary.

[jharp]

"to show the McCain surge"

DKos/R2000 has Obama by 10, 51-41.
NBC/WSJ has Obama up 10, 52-42.
Gallup has Obama up 10, 52-42.
Zogby has Obama up 10, 52-42.

WaPo has Obama up 9, 53-44.
Ipsos McClatchey has Obama up 8, 50-42.
Ras has Obama up 6, 51-45.
Hotline has Obama up 5, 47-42.
IBD/TIPP has Obama up 6, 47-41.

That is some surge. You are delusional.

[mary]

what happened to Patterico? Went to click on the link at malkin's blog and got this:

http://sedoparking.com/?path=home

[ET]

Are you sober enough for your next round of golf, deadbeat jharp? How much am I paying for this round? Maybe if you went to work, your children wouldn't quietly resent you.

Think about that on your backswing.

[jharp]

I had to pass on today's round. A few small problems to handle. Plus I didn't play very well yesterday and it's a tad cold. A good day to rest and catch up on things. And my kids start their fall break tomorrow and I plan to take my son fishing.

You ought to try working for yourself. It's a great life.

Rest assured my golf does not cost you one dime.

And how about those polls? Ain't looking too good for Redneckistan, huh?

[mary]

according to CNBC it is going to be a landslide for BO and we should just stay home, if we aren't voting for him as we are wasting our vote.

[jharp]

according to CNBC it is going to be a landslide for BO and we should just stay home, if we aren't voting for him as we are wasting our vote.

Posted by: mary | Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 01:01 PM

I agree it is going to be landslide. Whether you stay home or not is your choice.

I'm hoping the wingnuts do stay home. 60 seats in the Senate would be awesome. As it looks now 58 ain't too bad. And two or three Supreme Court appointees to follow.

Life is good. I can't tell you how thrilled I am to see the GOP imploding. It is so well deserved.

[hdtv]

What do you mean by landslide? Obama by 5? Obama by 20?

I could see Obama by 5..maybe up to 10, but not 20. I wouldn't call +5 a landslide. I really don't think it is going to be by much more than 5. At this point, Obama will surely win popular vote, but I don't think by a vast margin. I don't think the divisions have evaporated enough even with alot of bi-partisan Bush hate to deliver a truly landslide victory. It appears McCain has one and only one path for an electorate win, while Obama has multiple paths for victory. His chances are slim, really slim. Even so, I wouldn't necessarily put the electorate out of McCain's reach.

[ET]

--And how about those polls? Ain't looking too good for Redneckistan, huh?

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309546869309178

Wow, jharp...drunk at night...koolaide by day.

Better get botox biden to an undisclosed location or uncle barry's landslide may be just another liberal wet dream.

[jharp]

ET,

Went and looked at your poll and to be honest I hadn't heard of them before. No mention of the methodology but I found one thing there that I can believe.

College dropouts - McCain 52% Obama 39%
College Graduates - McCain 37% Obama 50%

Maybe this is why the GOP is so opposed to improving education. Keep em stupid and they are more likely to vote GOP.

How about you? I highly suspect you're a dropout.

No way could you post such stupid nonsense if you had made it through college.

[ET]

--Went and looked at your poll and to be honest I hadn't heard of them before.

Not surprising that you have never heard of investor's business daily. A failed business man like yourself would have no reason to.

[jharp]

I have heard of IBD. It's the TIPP that was news to me.

Where'd you go to school? Or are you a fellow dittohead dropout like Hannity and Limbo.

[ET]

--Where'd you go to school?

For which degree? I have three.