Wright TV

Courtesy Ben Smith at Politico.

The National Republican Trust PAC, which aired one harsh anti-Obama ad that it also used to fundraise on Drudge and elsewhere, says it's putting $2.5 million behind this spot in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

Comments

[jharp]

Too funny.

I guess the National Republican Trust PAC didn't get the memo. The attacks are hurting McCain.

Please, please run some more. And watch your Senate minority shrink to 40.

[chris]

Wow, $2.5 million. That's what Obama spends in a week in Vermont.

Funny, there never seems to be any ad, or any mention, of what the angry old man actually plans to do. His whole campaign revolves around attacking Obama. Grandpa's got nothing.

[Spartan112]

I'm Sarah Palin and I approved this smear.

[mark l.]

"The attacks are hurting McCain."
oh really?

the margin of church goers/weekly was 42% of the electorate.

bush won it by less than 20%, where mccain is now pushing 35%.

That's a net increase of 7.6 million voters over 04.

[mark l.]

"The attacks are hurting McCain."

explain how they help obama.

I was in error, in stating that mccain's advantage among weekly church goers was 35%...

it is 44%, or a net of 12.2 million voters.

but if you think it hurts mccain, I'm sure there is a 527 you can donate to that will play it non-stop.

[mark l.]

never fear geniuses-

I've seen polls that have provided obama with only a 4 pt disadvantage among white voters, after kerry lost them 59-41.

I have little doubt that an african american candidate will have no trouble sealing that demographic down.

Just keep the margin on the white vote to single digits, and you have a shot...at offsetting the church crowd.

[Spartan112]

Where do the vast majority of those churchgoers live? In states Obama isn't going to win.

[mark l.]

In states Obama isn't going to win.
ohio, nc, va, pa, fl...

[mark l.]

who would have thought I'd have to go to Gallup(today's) to get my numbers...

when presto-

they have a whole article entitled:

"McCain Retains Support of Highly Religious White Voters"

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111463/McCain-Retains-Support-Highly-Religious-White-Voters.aspx

they do provide a lower margin 41%, and where my previous set was non-race specific, this is among white church goers, but the implication is clear-

minority voters in 04 were 23% of electorate.
church goers in 04 were 42% of electorate.

[jaime]

John McCain, President of White Frequent Church Goers.

[Spartan112]

If Obama wins PA and loses those others you mentioned he still ends up at 273 according to RCP. Heck, somehow in that mix if he even lost NH it would end up a tie and he'd still win due to the senate breaking the tie.

[Spartan112]

42%...so are those 42% "highly religious"?? How many are minorities?

[Spartan112]

Hey Mark, care to tell us how McCain is doing with traditionally republican Hispanic voters?

[mark l.]

112-

there is some intersection.
but let's go with aa being 12% of the population, plugged into 42%...
including all, but african america, still 37% of the 04 electorate.

"John McCain, President of White Frequent Church Goers"

chin up big guy, high school dropouts were the only demographic, other than post grad, that kerry won. Apparently conservatism, bush style, still holds a broad audience, relative to democrat schtick.

[Spartan112]

You forgot the hispanic makeup of the group which traditionally is highly religious. Recent polls show Obama leading among Hispanic protestants.

[mark l.]

'traditionally republican Hispanic voters'

a rough guess?

8% of 04 electorate, bush lost by a margin of 12%, 121 million voters...

04-bush lost a net 1.16 million votes, net.

gallup has the hispanic at 61-29 obama, 32pt spread, 3.1 million,

net increase among all hispanic of a little under 2 mil. not bad, but you need some big number from bigger groups, come up with 4 more like that, and you might be knocking of the white church goers doors.

[Spartan112]

Women...that's the biggest voting block of all. McCain is behind by 17pts.

[mark l.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108040/Candidate-Support-Race.aspx

good link, but the numbers are from oct, 19...due for an update.

I'll give you the math on what they posted, you might get a bonus to the numbers becuase of the traditional asian democratic vote, which is only redeemable in CA, maybe WA as well. Hopefully the y haven't forgotten about sharpton leading an angry mob against a korean grocery store that got set on fire, and they'll hopefully forgot all the black comedians who have been ridiculing them for years. Funny if obama lost in the demo, but it is rather irellevant.

african american-8% in 04, margin04-K+77, current gallup, O+88.....1.1 million increase.
whites, 77% in 04, 04 margin -B+17, current gallup M+6......10.24 million increase.
hispanics 8% in 04, 04 margin K+11, current gallup O+32.....2million increase.

so technically, the 04 model, by race provides, obama with taking 13-14 million votes from the bush column, with a final tally of 48 million left for mccain, and 73 million for a finish of 60-40 landslide.

This is the dilemma, there poll has it within 5 pts, and yet based soley on their own demographic numbers on white alone, it should be an absolute slaughter.

[Spartan112]

"chin up big guy, high school dropouts were the only demographic, other than post grad, that kerry won. Apparently conservatism, bush style, still holds a broad audience, relative to democrat schtick. "

Of course you fail to mention that Obama leads in ALL educational demographics. You know what's really funny? Obama also leads in every age group even seniors.

[mark l.]

you are absolutely right about the number on women...

reportedly huge,

and a net change of 9.1 million for 04.
and I think this is the demographic they are going with on mccain...

kerry +3, 54% of the elctorate, now obama +17, by your number,

it actually provides for a shift on the numbers, with no new turnout, to come in at 56-44, obama.

[Spartan112]

"This is the dilemma, there poll has it within 5 pts, and yet based soley on their own demographic numbers on white alone, it should be an absolute slaughter."

So what you're saying is that if it was 1912 and only White males could vote your man would be a lock? I hope that makes you sleep well at night.

[mark l.]

there is a hidden problem that keeps popping uo though...

they are increasing female minority vote in their likely voter models by nearly 80%. or they are not filtering the female vote by race.

watch:

white females voted 55-44 bush.
non-white females 24-75 kerry.

white women 41% of the electorate.
non-white women 12% of the elctorate.

make your minority number 18%, and you decrease white women by 6%, to 35%.

bush lost all females in 04 by 3,
but if you punch in these numbers, you wind up with 11 million net gain from minority women, and mac gets a net loss of 4.7 million.

the increase of a small but polarized unit at the expense of a larger more moderate unit has sweeping effects.

As an aside, look at the big 10 polls for ohio, which is 84% white by demgraphics, but only 72% white by their polling methods.

bottom line?
the polls were put together by amateurs.

[Spartan112]

But might that change be accounted for in the expected swell of minority voters for this election?

[mark l.]

basically to create a margin similar to your 17 pt advantage,

all you have to do is increase minority women from 12% to 16.3%, drop your white women by 36.7% of the elctorate, and presto, you have a 17 pt margin, where once there was only a 3 pt margin as in 04.

reasonable?
maybe...but that is a bump of 36% increase in minority women turnout, assuming no increase in white women.

anything close to a 20% increase is almost unheard of....well, bush did pick up 22% in 04.

[Vegas]

Wow! The National Debt Clock keeps growing and growing, unemployment's high, foreclosures are high, we keep borrowing money from Communist China, the stock markets are always negative and they want to talk about Rev. Wright? What does he have to do with anything?

Rev. Wright will benefit under John McCain, because he lives in a multi-million dollar mansion and was given 10 million dollars by his former church. Obama isn't in this for him, but McCain is.

Obama's in it for us! The middle class.

I don't care about some old retired man who's doing better than lots of people put together!

Tune out the noise and just vote Obama. McCain's desperate and they are just trying to bring out the nutcases and racists. He has no message. I don't even know why they're running anymore. McCain's honor and integrity have really gone out the window and he proves more and more everyday that he's the one who will actually do and say anything to win the White House. I know the GOP did the ad, but they're all in bed together. McCain said he would not use the Wright ad, and he did. So, he lied. This is just one of his many lies. I can't trust McCain at all. Also, if he's elected...I'll be scared to death to have Gov. Know Nothing as President. It's not worth it. I voted early in Nevada. I'm an Independent. I'm so tired of all the negative stuff. It's the same and it stinks and it does not solve anything.

[mark l.]

"expected swell of minority voters"

I absolutely agree that it is a demographic that will grow faster than any other, but when you start weighting them in, you also devalue other demographic groups. In the polling firms zest to account for massive minority turnout, they have largely ignored whether whites will turnout.

It is the source of great curiousity,but of poor predicatability. No polling firm actually even trys to guess turnout. The 04 axiom that I believed, but then was proven quite wrong, was that heavy turnout favors change. can't tell you the sick feeling I got when I heard the words 'record turnout', until 9pm eastern, election night.

It would seem that a massive turnout would require a massive amount of white voters, who historically favor the republican, mostly as the lesser of two evils.

The more white voters, ignore tales of party id, the less obama's chances.

[mark l.]

the schism between white voter stem largely from fear of socialism/redistribution(perceived) and inferior foreign policy(actual).

I see those two issues driving white voter for mccain more than any other reason.

[WileECoyote]

The Wright factor cannot be underestimated. This guy was his spiritual advisor and mentor for 20 years; He only denounced him because it would have been political suicide not too. Its who Obama is. A radical. Run the AD GOP. And run it often. Remind the voters who BO really is at his core.
A radical. I repeat, a radical.

[mark l.]

"The Wright factor cannot be underestimated."
absolutely.
it's a silver bullet.

[mark l.]

and spartan 112-

best level on any halo game?

assault on the control room, combat evolved. I'll take any other into consideration.

[mark l.]

looks like fox brought out the big guns-

father jonathan-

"There can be no longer any doubt. Senator Obama’s enduring political philosophy is socialist at the core."

http://foxforum.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/10/27/frj_1027/

there you have it. catholic priest confirms obama a commie.

[Terry Gain]

"Wow! The National Debt Clock keeps growing and growing, unemployment's high, foreclosures are high, we keep borrowing money from Communist China, the stock markets are always negative and they want to talk about Rev. Wright? What does he have to do with anything?"

Wow. Concerned about the debt? Vote the socialist solution. I have some experience with this approach. In 1990 Bob Rae, like Obama a democratic socialis, was elected Premier of Ontario with 38% of the vote - the same percentage as I believe elected Clinton in 1992. Rae was the Democratic Party's best and brightest. A Rhodes scholar, as an intellectual he makes Obama look mediocre. Rae certainly deserved the description: a gentleman and a scholar.

So how did it turn out? After five years in office Rae managed to double the debt which his Province of hard-working, mainly sober people had accumulated over the previous 123 years.

What may be expected of Barack Obama who has no executive experience except as head of William Ayers' Chicago Annenberg Challenge?

Next to Chris Dodd of Obama has received more money from Fannie Mae than any other politician in Washington. He has the most liberal voting record of any U.S Senator. The list of his Associates reads like a Who's Who of disreputable people. He wants to spread the wealth. His campaign blacklists media people who ask is volume running matehis voluble running mate tough questions.

It seems that there are a lot of Americans who are stuck on stupid. A man hand picked by an unrepentant terrorist and Marxist, who has never run anything except an educational foundation which spent $160 million trying to radicalize Chicago's education system and produced nothing of value is going to solve America's economic problems? Give your head a shake.

Were it not for the damage to the war against terror and the possible appointment a couple of liberal Supreme Court judges it would almost be worth it to see Obama elected POTUS. It would teach the leftards a good lesson. They don't seem to be able to understand anything unless they experience it personally.

If he is elected, and the bias of the MSM is so putrid the polls cannot be trusted, the vetting will begin in about 18 months with a vengeance unseen even in the Bush years.

[mark l.]

If I had a dollar for every dem who invokes the debt, as if it matters dearly to them.

The instantly invoke clinton, as if the constraint was his to make.

hint?
1994, platform of the republicans who took over congress?

The Fiscal Responsibility Act
An amendment to the Constitution that would require a balanced budget, unless sanctioned by a three-fifths vote in both houses of Congress (H.J.Res.1, passed by the US House Roll Call: 300-132, 1/26/95; rejected by the US Senate Roll Call: 65-35, 3/2/95, two-thirds required), and provide the president with a line-item veto (H.R.2, passed by the US House Roll Call: 294-134, 2/6/95; conferenced with S. 4 and enacted with substantial changes 4/9/96 [2]).

this is the singular instance of where any party actually said they would do it, and they did.

[befair]

there you have it. catholic priest confirms obama a commie.

Posted by: mark l. | Monday, October 27, 2008 at 07:11 PM

Oh my. Considering the source, I am inclined to doubt it. It would be interesting too give a listen to or see a recap of the usual Sunday sermon delivered by Rev. Wright. I doubt very much that this type of speech was a uaual occurence.

[Todd]

Oh, the stench of Republican desperation is getting really strong !!!

[WBestPresidentEver]

Vegas go back to you "CRAP" tables and shut the hell up !

I am glad they are running the ad. Obama knew it was coming that is why he has kept on saying to everyone to vote early, vote early ! He is the biggest crook and liar that I have a ever seen. He does not want anyone to rethink their voting for him. What a sheep in wolfs clothing he is. Communist, socialist, marxist, scumbag.

I saw a sign today while riding down a busy street that said :
Caution: Satan often disguises himself as the Angel of Light.

Yep !! How True. Too bad so many do not see this ! Too busy drinking the toxic kool aid. I don't know what they are putting in it but it sure has messed up the brains of many. How sad.

[Lala]

Bookmark this and watch tomorrow night -

Watch Rev. Peterson's Speech On Obama At Texas A&M Live, Tues (10/28) at 8 p.m. EST, 7 p.m. CST, 5 p.m. PST

http://www.bondaction.org/

[Lala]

Yikes… Obama compares the USA to… Nazi Germany!

October 27, 2008 by PUMA Pundit

As is common knowledge by now, Obama spoke about how the redistribution of wealth is a right that ought to be enshrined in the consitution.

In the same audio recording, Obama goes even further, and argues that during the time of Brown vs. Board of Education, the doctrines of Nazism that folks were fighting against in WWII, were the same doctrines we were the United States of America had back home:

The link to the audio is here: Chicago Public
Radio - Audio Library: Odyssey. This excerpt starts at 15:30:

“…just to take a, sort of a realist perspective…there’s a lot of change going on outside of the Court, um, that, that judges essentially have to take judicial notice of. I mean you’ve got World War II, you’ve got uh, uh, uh, the doctrines of Nazism, that, that we are fighting against, that start looking uncomfortably similar to what we have going on, back here at home.”

Now I don’t know about you, but I think Nazism is the worst scourge mankind has faced in the modern age. To compare Nazi Germany, a governing system complete with the Gestapo, the SS, Gas Chambers, Mass Graves, Pogroms, etc with what was going on in a democratic United States is beyond ridiculous, it is simply bizzare. However, when you consider the fact that this was a Barack Obama who hung out with Reverend Wright of “God Damn America” fame, it seems perfectly normal.

What is more bizzare is that a man who can make such a foolish comparison publicly would be taken as a viable contender for the Presidency by a large segment of the voting public.

Speaking of Nazi tactics, here is Barbara West on her Joe Biden interview experience and what it bodes for democracy…

Posted by PUMA Pundit
http://www.puma08.com/2008/10/27/yikes-obama-compares-the-usa-to-nazi-germany/

[mark l.]

"Oh, the stench of Republican desperation is getting really strong !!!"

let me guess, by your presense here, you liked to sniff jock straps in high school.

[diana]

It seems like all of you Obama supporters are more worried about this than you let on. If you were not concerned why even bother commenting?
I think it will be close which is amazing when you consider that this was supposed to be the Dems big year. Maybe next time the DNC should nominate a standard liberal instead of a marxist and maybe you wouldn't have to be so worried.

[LogicalUS]

"I mean you’ve got World War II, you’ve got uh, uh, uh, the doctrines of Nazism, that, that we are fighting against, that start looking uncomfortably similar to what we have going on, back here at home.”

This interview happened on September 6, 2001. Five days before Islamic nuts blew up NY and the Leftard's Hitler, President Bush, had only been in office for 3 months, so what the hell was Obama raving about?

Nice job, leftist! Nominating a raving lunatic for President, what could possibility go wrong with putting a Code Pink loon in control who actually believes that 2001 America resembles 1939 Naxi Germany? Sounds like a plan.

We know the model of the tanning bed with Governor Palin bought for the Governor's mansion in Alaskan and the dating habits of teenage Alaskan girls but no intrepid "journalist" thought to listen to the hundreds of interviews which Obama did with the LARGEST PUBLIC BROADCASTING RADIO STATION IN CHICAGO?

Nice job of vetting, dipwads!

[hogtrashhd]

I'm surprised that hispanics would cast a single vote for Obama considering both groups, blacks and hispanics, are competing for the same thing, gimme something for nuthin and that's really all you can say for Obama supporters. They're just looking for a handout. Hispanics would get more from McCain.. Surely, they're not that stupid to vote for a competitor in the handout war would they? Just saying....

[Spartan112]

I'm surprised that hispanics would cast a single vote for Obama considering both groups, blacks and hispanics, are competing for the same thing, gimme something for nuthin and that's really all you can say for Obama supporters. They're just looking for a handout. Hispanics would get more from McCain.. Surely, they're not that stupid to vote for a competitor in the handout war would they? Just saying....

Posted by: hogtrashhd

Racist much? I thought the feds arrested you yesterday.

[Readalittlewon't'you]

Obama, Candidate for those who know no better......