Whoa! AP Shocker: All Tied Up!

WTF? From the AP???

WASHINGTON (AP) - An Associated Press-GfK poll shows the presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000. Two weeks before the election, McCain and Barack Obama are essentially running even among likely voters.

The poll put Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent among those voters who are considered likely to vote on Nov. 4. The survey supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race has narrowed as Republicans drift home to their party. McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy also seemed to strike a chord.

Comments

[jharp]

mark l,

With all due respect you have no idea what you are talking about.

You're "leery about the undecided"? What the hell is that supposed to mean coming from an anonymous poster on an obscure message board?

McCain is toast in PA, VA, CO, NM. And probably in OH, FL, NH. NC and NV most likely won't matter but Obama is ahead in both regardless.

Do the math.

"murtha providing a double wahmmy of 'redneck' and 'racist' within a week to an area that had once bourn the direct brunt of the 'cling to their guns' has really kicked the hornets nest."

An I've got news for ya. The rednecks and racists weren't voting for Obama anyways.

Fortunately for all of America they are an irrelevant minority.

[mark l.]

I'll put in a baseline for mccain:

he's at 174 on the rcp map, right now.

I feel really good about florida, ohio, nc, nv, and mo, with the exception that acorn is being investigated in those states.

presto, mccain is at 252.

18 gets it done.

nh 4, co 9, nm 5, va 13. Which is rather ironic, becuase some politcal guy named Rove, said the election would come down to Va and Co, 6 months ago. You don't think that he would make this point of emphasis to his friend and admirer, Steve Schmidt, upon McCain's nomination?

a friend of a friend of a friend has relayed the the amount of prep work for the gotv that has gone into CO and Va...everyone will vote. Look at your profile in va, yes they elected a democrat in 06, but a moderate democrat with a military career, who barely won, in a year ripe for upsets. Cannot overstate the difficulty that an non military guy will have against a former pow.

pa, while a longshot, puts him over at 273-(not a state obama can lose)no other states required.

[mark l.]

"With all due respect you have no idea what you are talking about.

You're "leery about the undecided"?"

the comment was mild support of you skepticism about the ap poll. 13% undecideds is too high. At best it is 4-5, with 2% willing to shift, at the moment.

[mark l.]

btw, harp-

why does obama look so sick? if it wasn't for the amount fo stress he was under, my first guess would be sickle cell anemia.

[mark l.]

i'm sure the rnc would spring for dna test.

[mark l.]

here's a trip down memory lane-

a post from the democraticunderground:

Dems Will Win (1000+ posts) Sun Nov-05-06 11:25 AM
Original message
How Rove Blew It On the 72-Hour GOTV - He Only Focused on The Base, NOT the Indies

"That's really what happened, said Rothenberg and Chuck Todd last night on Russert. Meanwhile Dr. Dean's strategy got to Independents in all 50 states especially the targeted CDs.

Rove never went politicked or tried to turn out the middle. Their whole database is on the Base! That's why they could be so rightwingnutjob in their policy. As long as the Indie vote was split 50-50, Rove just ignore the middle!

This will be key on Tuesday and actually puts the GOP behind the eightball for the '08 race.

Their reknowned 72 hour Database and GOTV will not win it for them this year and will win even less in 2 years.

WE now have the electoral GOTV advantage and machinery, not the GOP.

And when you look at the Millennial Generation (born between 1982 and 2002) coming in at a clip of 15 million more every 4 years and they are 2-to-1 Democrat right now, Mr. Rove has screwed his own party for, oh, about a generation...

Now we need a solid 50-state micro-targeted database on not only our own base but also the Indies and the moderate Repubs and evangelicals.

The '08 election will be won with micro-targeted databases--and ours will beat theirs from Tuesday onwards.

Dr. Dean made an excellent diagnosis and operation. The patient is going to live!"

this guy probably went impotent for the rest of his life when he realized the exit polls were wrong.

got to walk the dog. night.

[jharp]

he's at 174 on the rcp map, right now.

I feel really good about florida, ohio, nc, nv, and mo, with the exception that acorn is being investigated in those states.

presto, mccain is at 252.

Posted by: mark l. | Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 11:01 PM

You are a fool. And you're speculation is not worth 25 cents.

"I feel really good about florida, ohio, nc, nv, and mo."

So do I. McCain is trailing in all of them.

Your post is supposed to be humor? Right?

[jharp]

btw, harp-

why does obama look so sick? if it wasn't for the amount fo stress he was under, my first guess would be sickle cell anemia.

Posted by: mark l. | Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 11:11 PM

You're a redneck hillbilly jackass.

[mary]

btw, harp-

why does obama look so sick? if it wasn't for the amount fo stress he was under, my first guess would be sickle cell anemia.

Posted by: mark l. | Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 11:11 PM

You're a redneck hillbilly jackass.

Posted by: jharp | Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 11:44 PM

ooo that prompted quite a response. Why? You didn't have to be so rude to someone new.

[jharp]

mary,

Do you think it would be appropriate for me to make a crack about McCain not looking too good. And if it wasn't for the stress he was under my first guess would be melanoma?

I wouldn't either and mark l is an idiot.

[seekeronos]

Heh.

"Evangelical, Protestant, Fundamentalist, etc., etc."

Here's a take on it from someone who is a fundamentalist, Bible-believing, Christian.

You have "christians" (with a small "c") as the largest outer shell (think Venn diagram). Most of these are unsaved folks, who, like Obama, just claim the title for the sake of convenience and not spooking the committed Christians and other "christians" who care about that sort of thing.

The "christians" can include both Protestants and Catholics and Eastern Orthodox, among others in a very loose sense, like the Unitarian-Universalists (UU's) and quasi-cults like the Moonies and LDS.

Then under the "Protestant" subset, you have distinct subgroups:

-- Mainstream (like the many various strains of Methodists, Baptists, Reformed ___, Episcopalians, Lutherans, Presbyterians, etc.) In the 19th century, these folks were spot-on and fired up with the Gospel, but by the mid-late 20th century, most if not all of these churches fell prey to the Great Apostasy (which include ecumenism, or the "all things lead to God" fallacy, and excessive social liberalism).

-- Evangelical (these churches tend to be characterised by a heavy focus on the so-called "charismatic gifts", or the very outward presence of certain gifts of the Spirit, such as speaking in tongues (supposedly angelic "prayer language" which sounds like a pile of gibberish), "slaying in the spirit" (who's spirit, though?) "holy laughter", and other extra-biblical oddities. Oddly enough, there is less of a focus on actual evangelism with many of these churches, and being typically very touchy-feely in their church affairs, prone to a great deal of internecine strife. These are also the churches that are targeted with huge funds and huge amounts of scrutiny (Ted Haggard's mega church falls squarely into this category).

Evangelicals need not necessarily be overdosing on outward shows of charismatic gifts; some like the many iterations of Chuck Colson's "Cavalry Chapels" tend to be less charismatic, but still very sensual and "touchy-feely", by using rock bands or "contemporary music" and stagecraft to attract thousands of parishioners each week.

-- Fundamentalist churches are closest to the goal, but even these can run astray into legalism and cold-hearted judgmentalism -- really, spiritual pride. The better churches are those fundamental churches that abide strictly by the King James Bible (for English speakers) and are actively filled with the Holy Spirit, abounding in God's work which is heavily focused on soul winning and discipleship. Independent Fundamental Baptists tend to be at the forefront of this group.

Ideologically, fundies and evangelicals are very close, typically in league with the GOP, though us fundies are probably the more conservative, and more likely to veer toward paleo-conservatism.

Mainstream Protestants are all over the map.

-- "Born Again" can apply to anyone in any of the three groups I listed, as this applies more toward someone who has a RELATIONSHIP with the Creator, as opposed to any particular denominational identification.

However, even those claiming to be "born again" should be tested on their spirit (preferably by an older Christian) to ascertain if they are truly walking with us as fellow believers in the same fold of God.

After all, the Apostle John does warn us that "many deceivers have gone into the world"...