Whoa! AP Shocker: All Tied Up!

WTF? From the AP???

WASHINGTON (AP) - An Associated Press-GfK poll shows the presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000. Two weeks before the election, McCain and Barack Obama are essentially running even among likely voters.

The poll put Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent among those voters who are considered likely to vote on Nov. 4. The survey supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race has narrowed as Republicans drift home to their party. McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy also seemed to strike a chord.

Comments

[chris]

Look cons, it's your daily ray of hope!

[Lala]

IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Ten

Posted Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Contrary to other polls, some of which show Obama ahead by double digits, the IBD/TIPP Poll shows a sudden tightening of Obama's lead to 3.7 from 6.0. McCain has picked up 3 points in the West and with independents, married women and those with some college. He's also gaining momentum in the suburbs, where he's gone from dead even a week ago to a 20-point lead. Obama padded gains in urban areas and with lower-class households, but he slipped 4 points with parents. Read more
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/PollsMain.aspx

[mary]

fox just told me that BO is leading by 10. I have a tendancy ot think the Ap has lost their marbles.

Unless the campaign has decided it isn't a good thing to have the headline Landslide on drudge and to have CNBC saying it is over? I guess axelrod wants to look like they came from behind? Beginning to think that you can't believe the Media and you can't believe the polls. Who can you believe?

[jharp]

The Associated Press and GfK launched a polling partnership in September 2008.

Put the bong away. You're hallucinating.

[jharp]

"A new AP-Gfk poll shows the presidential race much closer than other recent polls. Sen. Barack Obama just barely edges Sen. John McCain, 44% to 43%, among likely voters."

"However, when you look at total respondents to the survey, Obama's lead grows to ten points, 47% to 37%."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/10/22/apgfk_poll_presidential_race_very_close.html

[chris]

The old man better watch his mouth

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qX1ImnGQYcE

[JustOneMan]

What???? McCain gaining with "people earning less than $50,000" gee...what about Barrys BIG TAX breaks???

In response Obamas spokes person stated "We are prepared to offer every American making under $250,000 per year 10lbs of government surplus chees and $1,000 in food stamps."

[Lala]

It appears “Joe the Plumber” has helped unclog John McCain’s stuck poll numbers in Ohio.

A new Rasmussen-Fox poll shows the GOP ticket squeaking ahead of Barack Obama 49-47 percent in the Buckeye State. The flip-flop in results follows plumber Joe Wurzelbacher’s doubts over Obama’s tax plan.

and

The same poll places McCain ahead in Florida 49-48. Both battleground states are now too close to call, with Florida’s 27 electoral votes the big bonus prize.

read more at http://news.bostonherald.com/news/2008/view.bg?articleid=1127026&srvc=2008campnews&position=2

[Fred Beloit]

Fred on another thread said:
"ACORN and the Obie campaign are getting their lawyers revved up to try to stop military votes from being counted, no doubt.
Posted by: Fred Beloit | Tuesday, October 21, 2008 at 03:45 PM"

So Harpo said: "fred,
Why would you post such a thing? You have nothing to support it. It's stupid and it's wrong."

Sooo, Fred now offers this:
"CHICAGO - The day after New Year’s 1996, operatives for Barack Obama filed into a barren hearing room of the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners.

There they began the tedious process of challenging hundreds of signatures on the nominating petitions of state Sen. Alice Palmer, the longtime progressive activist from the city’s South Side. And they kept challenging petitions until every one of Obama’s four Democratic primary rivals was forced off the ballot."

And this: "A close examination of Obama’s first campaign clouds the image he has cultivated throughout his political career: The man now running for president on a message of giving a voice to the voiceless first entered public office not by leveling the playing field, but by clearing it."
http://www.popmatters.com/pm/article/32738/obama-forced-opponents-from-race-in-first-campaign/

And this: "The past is prologue."

[Fred Beloit]

Fred on another thread said:
"ACORN and the Obie campaign are getting their lawyers revved up to try to stop military votes from being counted, no doubt.
Posted by: Fred Beloit | Tuesday, October 21, 2008 at 03:45 PM"

So Harpo said: "fred,
Why would you post such a thing? You have nothing to support it. It's stupid and it's wrong."

Sooo, Fred now offers this:
"CHICAGO - The day after New Year’s 1996, operatives for Barack Obama filed into a barren hearing room of the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners.

There they began the tedious process of challenging hundreds of signatures on the nominating petitions of state Sen. Alice Palmer, the longtime progressive activist from the city’s South Side. And they kept challenging petitions until every one of Obama’s four Democratic primary rivals was forced off the ballot."

And this: "A close examination of Obama’s first campaign clouds the image he has cultivated throughout his political career: The man now running for president on a message of giving a voice to the voiceless first entered public office not by leveling the playing field, but by clearing it."
http://www.popmatters.com/pm/article/32738/obama-forced-opponents-from-race-in-first-campaign/

And this: "The past is prologue."

[Fred Beloit]

And this from Democraticunderground.com:
"Source: Bloomberg
In Florida, Democratic lawyer Charles H. Lichtman has assembled almost 5,000 lawyers to monitor precincts, assist voters turned away at the polls and litigate any disputes that can't be resolved out of court.
``On Election Day, I will be managing the largest law firm in the country, albeit for one day,'' said Lichtman, 53, a Fort Lauderdale corporate lawyer and veteran of the five-week recount after the 2000 election when Florida eventually delivered the presidency to George W. Bush."

[Lala]

I also heard that Philadelphia is begging the Obama campaign for "street money"'.

PA Governor 'Nervous,' Sees McCain Surge
By Mark Impomeni
Oct 22nd 2008 11:00AM

read more at
http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2008/10/22/pa-governor-nervous-sees-mccain-surge/

[Lala]

Martin Luther King''s niece backs McCain/Palin

Freedom's Journal magazine has released a video called "Faith, Race, and Politics, How Should Black Christians Vote." It was made after the "values debate" in September. 


Among others, the video features syndicated columnist Star Parker and Bishop Harry R. Jackson, president of High Impact Leadership Coalition. But the most recognizable name is Dr. Alveda King, director of African-American Outreach, Gospel of Life Ministries, a niece of Dr. Martin Luther King.

"I am very excited about the McCain-Palin ticket, simply because they support the values that mean the most to me," Ms. King said. "It is a plus to me that Sarah Palin is a woman because I've been elected to office as a wife and mother. I've been appointed to office as a woman and at the time I was a mother and became a grandmother." 



Ms. King said her experience taught her she could both be a good mother and still serve the public. This is something she has in common with Gov. Sarah Palin, R-Alaska, McCain's running mate.

However, the most important reason she is backing the McCain-Palin ticket is its commitment to the pro-life cause.

read more at

http://www.thebulletin.us/site/index.cfm?newsid=20172908&BRD=2737&PAG=461&dept_id=576361&rfi=8

[seekeronos]

"--- Look cons, it's your daily ray of hope! ---"

Albeit a likely false ray. The Department of Public Information allowing the numbers to be fluffed a wee bit to make the (R)s think that we have a remote chance.

Speaking of the DPI... here's a new poster celebrating youth:

http://seekeronos.blogsome.com/images/Obamajugend.jpg

[Mr DeBakey]

I have my home page set to show Reuters' headlines.
Today:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama has expanded his national lead over Republican John McCain in the presidential race to 10 points, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 42 percent among likely U.S. voters in the latest three-day tracking poll, up from an 8-point advantage for Obama on Tuesday. The telephone poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

It was the third consecutive day Obama gained ground on McCain as the two begin the final sprint to the November 4 election.

[chris]

Wow, you have a lot of free time playing with photoshop and making silly posters.

[Fred Beloit]

Say, DaBookie, what are the odds on Dog Tired in the seventh at Hialeah? Isn't that more in your line?

[jharp]

intrade.com

Obama - $87 dollars wins $13
McCain - $13 dollars wins $87

That's about 8 to 1.

You guys need to stop smoking the weed.

[jharp]

At an October 2000 town hall on MSNBC’s Hardball, an audience member asked Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) about why the rich pay higher taxes than the middle class. McCain defended progressive taxation, stating, “I think it’s to some degree because we feel, obviously, that wealthy people can afford more”:

McCain's quote.

"So, look, here’s what I really believe, that when you are — reach a certain level of comfort, there’s nothing wrong with paying somewhat more. … And frankly, I think the first people who deserve a tax cut are working Americans with children that need to educate their children, and they’re the ones that I would support tax cuts for first.

McCain is a socialist.

[jaime]

The Drudge Cherry Picked Poll of the Day!!!!

Let's see, first it was Zogby, then it was IDB/TIPP, then Gallup and now its this poll. Funny how all these polls are flushed down the memory hole when they move back Obama's way.

[hdtv]

This is what you call cooking the books.

[Lala]

Huge crowd in Green,Ohio for McCain/Palin

http://www.cnn.com/video/flashLive/live.html?stream=stream2

[mark l.]

the biggest problem for dems?

palin is rebounding. The non-stop push to diminish palin was forgotten in the quest to hype the bailout/economy which favored obama only to lose out to the next story dujour of joe the plumber.

if the dems could only have kept up the the heat on palin, making the vote a referendum on her, they were sitting on a modest lead. There was some bleedover of press hyped negativity running into the bailout, but the dems made the mistake of discarding her altogether in favor of the crisis of the economy.

women, particularly WHITE women, were the source of obama's 'surge'. As soon as the obama campaign let up, her numbers rebounded. White women are the most fickle voters-look at the swings in support-

given the privacy of a voting booth, it is very hard to predict what they will do, but with each passing appearance where she smiles and appears confident, she is bringing back white women.

[mark l.]

"intrade.com

Obama - $87 dollars wins $13
McCain - $13 dollars wins $87

That's about 8 to 1."

how much have you bet?

seeing as you have a sure thing going, 15% guaranteed? Cash out your 401k, which is going nowhere, and make some real money.

[ERROL]

This is the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard of. Other national polls show Obama leading by huge margins, especially in the 'under-$50K' category. I hate to sound the conspiracy alarm, but I can't think of any other reason for gfk to make these absurd claims... somebody's in the tank for Mccain.. either that, or they are simply polling Republicans.

[hdtv]

I don't think the dems have a problem at this point. Looks like McCain is starting to offer up some closing comments in his ads. He pulled out of what would appear to be his best bets in terms of battleground and possible win states. The RNC is pulling matching funding from McCain, perhaps to try to save congressional seats, perhaps to fight another day. Even if you ignore all the signs and even the economy, which you shouldn't, VP's are known to have little influence in the booth and Palin can't be everywhere at once.

[mark l.]

isn't zogby an internet poll?

not that he might be a little off, but in 2004, he predicted the ev to be 311-213-14, in favor of kerry.

[Mr DeBakey]

Relax All, no need to fret:

"And it also strengthens my faith because I know at the end of the day putting this in God's hands, the right thing for America will be done, at the end of the day on Nov. 4."

S. Palin
October 22, 2008

[mark l.]

"Looks like McCain is starting to offer up some closing comments in his ads."

two words that bear constant repetition-

"socialist" and "liberal."

obama has been repeating the phrase,

I'm only going to increase taxes on the top 5%...

low info voters don't make it past the word 'taxes'. Yes, the argument is compelling, and I am sympathetic, but his plan is basically to raise taxes, rather than find the deficiencies in govt. His argument is that the govt needs more money, some people earn too much money-let's tax them and give it out to the poor. Who they take if from has less significance-democrats hate the wealthy(self-loathing), but other americans admire, aspire to be, and credit them. The very idea is alien to most voters. If the voters need more money, they save, they cut costs, or they work longer-3 things which are an act of responsbiilty. One citizen taking money from another citizen is tantamount to robbery.

This thing is breaking out into a debate on whether you like the rich, or you don't. (I know, gdp will shrink, but even that doesn't register with a majority of voters.) class envy will not work. Not so long as the havenots continue to want to be the haves. They consider the tax increase as a future limitation. If mccain wins, it will be because americans dream big and believe if they want something they go out and get it.

those who vote for obama DON'T aspire and would rather have their govt give them what they want, as opposed to earning it.

IF obama actually does win, every year he will seek to raise taxes to support his constituents. tax the top 5%?
everybody knows that there will be an encore.

[jharp]

All told Obama leads McCain by 54-43 percent among likely voters in this latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll. Obama now has 50 percent support among men -- a first for likely voters in ABC/Post polling -- and an 8-point advantage among swing-voting independents.

A separate ABC News polling analysis Wednesday morning noted that Obama has an 11-point lead in the 16 states designated by the ABC News Political Unit as battleground states this year, and a 7-point advantage in the eight rated as toss-ups (Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia).

http://www.abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=6087668&page=1

[mark l.]

55% of 2004 voters made more than 50k.

bush carried 56-58% among
50-75k(56)
75-100k(55)
100-150k(57)
150-200k(58)
200k+(63)

Who was kerry going to raise taxes on?

"Kerry has proposed eliminating the 2003 tax cuts on “the rich,” that is, everyone earning more than $200,000. The reality is that few Americans likely would classify those making $200,000 per year as “rich.”"

http://www.ncpa.org/pub/ba/ba487/

It's the same plan obama is offerring-with the unique difference being that "he'll spread it around".

For every rich person that a guy making 50k meets, he can instantly recall 5 other people at the bottom end of the social spectrum, who are subsdizing their lives off the govt. Does the guy making 50k resent the one guy for being rich, or the 5 people who need to get a job?

people making 50k aren't trapped at that level either...they believe the chance to make more money will come for them. Electing obama is like betting against their own shot at success.

all mccain has to do, is remind all the electorate that he is conservative, not liberal.
If he needs money, he'll cut it out of the budget, and not 'spread the wealth'.

[templar knight]

jharp only believes the polls that agree with him. Typical Democrat. I think the Obamarat might just lose after all. His supporters will riot as the media and liberals have raised expectations. I guess I'll get to watch the show from the plains of W. Texas. Won't be many rioters out here, unless you count jackrabbits and coyotes.

[mark l.]

jharp-

thanks for the link...should have kept reading...

"Further, in 30 "red" states George W. Bush won by a 14-point margin overall in 2004, Obama and McCain are now even, 49-49 percent." the luxury mccain has is to make sure he wins 51-49 in every one of those states, but still has 16 evs to spare..., so apparently he remains competitive. I'm sure you could drop IA from the list and mcains margin would increase, still leaving another 9 votes to spare.

"compensating for Obama's shortfall among white Catholics, a more usual swing voter group (now dividing 53-44 percent in McCain's favor)."
cnn had the catholic vote going to bush, but only by 52-47. McCain is outperforming in catholics, but underperforming in "non-evangelical white Protestants, 53-45"?

please...there's a reason they are called wasps.

Do you really believe that the poll is accurate, catholics up, protestants down? maybe I'm not getting the messiah's message that establishes this new schism.

[Mack]

RE: BO birth certificate? Why is no one picking up on this? Fox? Rush? Heard an inkling on Steve Malzberg....GET THE BALL ROLLING......this will take on a life of its on.......

[Spartan112]

"RE: BO birth certificate? Why is no one picking up on this? Fox? Rush? Heard an inkling on Steve Malzberg....GET THE BALL ROLLING......this will take on a life of its on......."

No one is picking up on it because it's a bogus story.

[SacTownMan]

Mark,

Thanks for taking the time you do to leave meaningful and well thought out posts.

Given the propensity of our resident trolls to rehash their Daily koz talking points ad nasium your thoughtful viewpoint is a breath of fresh air.

You will notice that Harpo, The Sock Puppet (Chris/Boob), President Carter and the other moonbats like to leave little 3 line zingers that seldom stay on topic or use any logical arguments in their conclusions.

The lingering trolls seldom have anything to add to the discussion but that certainly doesn't preclude them from sharing their verbal diarrhea with us all!

[mark l.]

stm-
thanks,

I love dan's site, and I figure I will be squatting here for next two weeks.

[jharp]

"jharp only believes the polls that agree with him."

No templar. I try to carefullu evaluate each and every poll. Especially one that is off the charts against what all the others say.

And over at Americablog.com some guys that are smarter than myself have a few points about this ridiculous poll.

"The Associated Press has released a poll that shows a much closer race than any other poll out there.

But, the poll doesn't make sense on many levels. Here's one example: 45% of this poll's respondents are evangelicals or born-again Christians (this is on page 20 of the poll's crosstabs (it's a pdf):

The problem? In 2004, evangelicals/born-again Christians made up 23% of voters. But that same group makes up 44% of likely voters in AP's poll released today. That's almost double the number - it's totally implausible."

And by the way I'm talking my son downtown tomorrow to see our next President, the messiah. A truly historic moment that I want him to experience.

[mark l.]

after a little disection, this abc poll is hysterical-

the title?
"Daily Tracking Poll: Barack Obama Answers on Experience, Improves on Commander-in-Chief"
mccain is winning 57-38 on the question of better commander in chief. compare to poll 54-43 favoring obama-

observation: 30% of obama's supporters believe he would not be as good a cic as mccain. not a good thing(lukewarm support), but then he barry was trailing 69-26 on sept 7. has he done anything noteworthy that would account for the shift?

what I found funny-

the pdf lacks any demographics. no explanation of weighting.
the abc report about religious demos? not in their poll.

here's a link to the pdf:
http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1077a5Tracking3.pdf

still trying to figure out how a major network is citing information from their own poll, that doesn't even ask the questions they are citing.

[mark l.]

harp-

your evangelical number is including protestants...(a guess)

still, it is a little confusing-if they ask the question, they should break it down.

[jharp]

"after a little disection, this abc poll is hysterical-

the title?
"Daily Tracking Poll: Barack Obama Answers on Experience, Improves on Commander-in-Chief"
mccain is winning 57-38 on the question of better commander in chief. compare to poll 54-43 favoring obama-"

Learn how to read and understand what you read. Did you go to school with Fred?

McCain is not winning 57-38 on the question of Commander in chief.

McCain is ahead 57-38 versus Obama 54-43.

Are you trying to mislead or are you stupid?

And the only thing hilarious about the poll is it shows the extremely high likelihood of an Obama landslide. And I agree. That is funny.

[mark l.]

if you want to bitch about the poll, it's weighting is different from the other more obama friendly...

strong/moderate dem 35%, indy leaning dem is another 13%.

If you want a practical example of strong/moderate dem, consistent with the poll numbers I would offer 42 million voted dem in off year of 06, which is 34.7% of the 121 million that voted in 04.

This is one of the reasons I am skeptical about the heavy weighted dem polls today. Congressional approval is half of what it was in 06, but everyone still loves democrats?

[mark l.]

"Learn how to read and understand what you read."

what is the result of question #7, on the above link?

"Are you trying to mislead or are you stupid?"

have your mom read it to you, and get back to me.

[jharp]

harp-

your evangelical number is including protestants...(a guess)

Posted by: mark l. | Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 07:52 PM

Your guess demonstrates you didn't bother to look and it is a stupid guess.

The question asked was. Do you consider yourself an evangelican or born again Christian.

45% answered yes.

Go look for yourself. It's on page 20.

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_3_Topline_FINAL.pdf

[mary]

Just saw the discussion on the Drew Griffin, Sarah Palin interview in which Drew misquoted Byron York in a question to Palin.

First, I was thrilled at Sarah Palin's reaction, you go girl. In the face of not knowing who wrote those words, but being told it wasn't only the liberals who hate her guts but conservatives too, her reaction of "who is that guy, I'd like to talk to that guy" was absolutely perfect. Real person, vp candidate Sarah Palin, did exactly what everyone else who is NORMAL would have done. You go girl!!!!

The other thing I think may have been going on is that Drew Griffin who, as of late, has been doing some great reporting about ACORN was set up by his own people. If he didn't read Bryon York's article and was just briefed and handed the questions then he would not have known that the questions were taken out of context. In fact, he seemed, by his reaction to genuinely not have know it was from Byron York's article.

So, that is interesting, CNN thought they could kill two birds with one stone with that question and, when O'Reilly called them to ask them to set the record straight and apologize, they flatly refused.

[jharp]

what is the result of question #7, on the above link?

You are correct. I didn't bother to look before I insulted you. Your language was not clear to me and I apologize.

[mark l.]

"Your guess demonstrates you didn't bother to look and it is a stupid guess.

The question asked was. Do you consider yourself an evangelican or born again Christian."

I did look at the question-

'born again' has a very large grouping including 'mainline protestants'.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Born_again_Christianity

"In Christianity, the terms born again, regenerated or transformed are synonymous with spiritual rebirth — i.e., salvation. It means having a "personal" faith in Jesus Christ.[1] The term is most frequently used by Evangelical, Fundamentalist, Pentecostal and some Mainline branches of Protestant Christianity. It is sometimes associated with non-denominational individuals, groups and churches."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_the_US

looked at the subsets too,

protestants make up 53%, no seperate cetegory for evangelicals, led me to believe they were a subset, a belongs to b, and some of b belongs to a.

it is still a guess, but surely you could give me the number of relgions and total membership of those who believe they 'must be born again'. as earlier stated, the group includes some protestants.

[mary]

I don't believe the polls, as I think they are just as in the tank as the MSM. In fact, the polls now coming out saying things are close are part of their strategy to bring "shock and awe" to the republicans. How will they do this? Simple. Doing something that comes easy. Lie to the pollsters for the good of the campaign and the lure the republicans into a sense of possibility so the trounce is that much more sweet for them.

[jharp]

mark l,

The poll is BS. It is far out of line with the other pollsters and most likely because of the example I cited.

And you know it.

Trying to broaden the definition of a born again or evangelican ain't gonna do McCain a bit of good come Nov 4th.

[mark l.]

I'm leery about the undecided number...

if it is the the start of a trend, maybe, but probably not.

The national number is actually a joke, the election remains in the hands on a few states.

going with the rcp map,

it will come down to nh, pa, va, nc, fl, oh, mo, nv, co, nm-

Obama could be running 55-40 for all I care.

pa is a problem, I put the odds at less than 25% on mccain pulling it off, but to have a 1 in 4 shot...

there are other combinations, but right now pa is as good as any. rendell and team obama have an 11 pt lead, or they have a fire on their hands...

murtha providing a double wahmmy of 'redneck' and 'racist' within a week to an area that had once bourn the direct brunt of the 'cling to their guns' has really kicked the hornets nest. not a state obama wants to lose.