What's Going On Here?

Like many, I've been watching the polls and it hasn't been fun recently. Now we have these:

Hotline/FD Tracking Obama +1

Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking Obama +2

Battleground has Obama by 4 but it has seemed to lag a bit in picking up changes. The bubble Obama enjoyed for a spell last week seems to be deflating.

Honestly, I think voters keep taking a close look at him and continue to back away. If Hillary were running on the Dem side, my guess is we would be looking at 53 - 44 numbers, advantage Clinton.

Say what you want, with all the hype, all the media bias, Obama has yet to be able to close the deal. At this rate if Ayres, Rezko and maybe even Wright and Obama are in the news for the remaining weeks, it would be foolish to think McCain can't win this thing.

Comments

[ToddK]

I'm a bit surprised at those numbers. I thought McCain sat at the plate, and watched the pitches go by...

Stump speeches are great, because a lot of people are, shamefully, just starting to pay attention, and they need to know what these guys are running on.
But crafted remarks, spoken or attached, aren't going to bring McCain victory.

Everyone in the country knows who McCain is, and where he's been. And very few, outside of the conservative blogospher and talk radio listeners, have any idea what or who Barak Obama is, and what he really believes.

Obama needs to have the sheets pulled off. If you got your news from the mainstream, Obama appears a moderate democrat.

This campaign has to be about Obama, from here on in. It's not going negative, it's fact finding for the American people. Obama's associations, and radical views, are what's negative. And we need to defeat his protective detail, the Press.

[seekeronos]

The Machine (TM) wants Obama.

The Machine (TM) will get Obama, come hell or high water.

The Machine (TM) knows drama sells advertising slots, so... it might look close right up until the end, but let there be no doubt anymore: The Machine speaks for its masters, and those masters want the docile, malleable, controllable leftist hack square in their clutches.

McCain, for all his many faults, is simply "untrustworthy" i.e. "mavericky", and does not give the masters any assurance that they will be able to control him.

So, the masters will hedge their bets on Obama, i.e. his likelihood of taking the platter of crap sandwiches left him by the 110th Democrat Congress and GW Bush and turning it into an utter fiasco that will make the Carter administration seem like the golden age of Eisenhower by comparison...

...because the masters really don't object to a USA reduced to a lesser role, so long as they stay in control and on track with theri agenda for a single, unitary, planetary government with them in the driver's seat.

It is the same old 4,200 year old plan concocted by Lucifer and his agents Tammuz, Nimrod, and a certain Sumerian moon god(dess) called Inanna or Sin, (but known to us today as Allah) to unite the children of Adam against their Creator as one nation at Babel; it failed then, and it will fail again.

[jharp]

Here are the other polls

DKos/R2000 has Obama up 10.
Ras has Obama up 6 .
Gallup has Obama up 9.
CNN has Obama up 8.
NBC has Obama up 6.

Obama leads by 7.8 points in these 5 pre debate polls.

[jharp]

ToddK,

"It's not going negative, it's fact finding for the American people. Obama's associations, and radical views, are what's negative."

Don't know what planet you've been on but it's been fact finding, associations, and radical views for the past year.

And they've come up with nothing. Nada. Zilch. Zero.

And it is going negative.

[Dan Riehl]

Any credible polls you listed are on the page I linked, jharp. Don't look so worried. People might start thinking you're going to lose. I didn't try to hide anything. Your man just can't close the deal and it's starting to show.

[Jgirl]

Who do they poll? I don't know anyone who has been polled, had a call, been asked to comment, ect...It is very interesting to me. Also, why are people so naive to believe Obama's promises? McCain loves and wants to save this country. Obama wants to change America and make it a different country.

[hdtv]

I think you are being optimistic. If you look at those in comparison to the others, you could conclude the reason they are lower is because of poll data from the 7th. However, RCP moved NH and MN into solid Obama on the 7th.

[befair]

I do not trust the polls - there is an entire generation of young adults out there who cannot be polled - they don't have landlines - they screen out anonymous cell phone numbers, and they work in corporate America long, long hours. Anyone who saw the debate last night saw an elderly man trying his best but not hitting the mark. He probably left the stage so fast because of an enlarged prostate. At least Obama hung around to chat with the folks on the stage. McCain does not offer any solutions I would trust right now - he of the economy being on a sound basis as of last month. And, BTW can someone tell me what part of our country uses the term "joe Six Pack?" Palin is an embarrassment, although a very cute folksy one.

[jharp]

Any credible polls you listed are on the page I linked, jharp. Don't look so worried. People might start thinking you're going to lose. I didn't try to hide anything. Your man just can't close the deal and it's starting to show.

Posted by: Dan Riehl | Wednesday, October 08, 2008 at 12:04 PM

Sorry but I did not visit the link. Actually I didn't even notice it. My eyesight ain't what it used to be and the links don't stand out very well here.

Anyways, for what it's worth intrade has Obama as a 1 to 3 (bet 3 to win 1) and McCain as a 2 to 1 (bet 2 to win 1).

And of course there is only one way to close the deal and that is on Nov 4th but I like our chances. A lot.

[mary]

Befair you forgot the instructions to die hard Obama voters to "lie to the pollsters and say you are voting for McCain" (remember they perceive this is how GWB won the last election, by messing up the polls and having his supporters say they were voting for "what his name".

[mary]

After watching Frank (great hairpiece) Luntz and his "alleged undecided Virginia voters" last night on Fox, I'm inclined to believe half of what I see and none of what I hear.

[chris]

You watch a lot of tv, mary. Is that typical of most "undecided" voters?

[mary]

Chris, multi tasking is an important element to life. Using tech is also an important element. God bless Steve Jobs, he has further uncomplicated my crazy world.

[mary]

Ok. Chris I was very much an obamanoid when the fight was with Hillary. But lately with the economy on the skids I'm not so sure that Obama has the depth of experience necessary to meet the economic and possibly international affairs situations that may characterize the next presidency. So yes, I'll admit it, I'm still not convinced that either man is up to the task.

Actually, I'm beginning to be sorry that I bet against Hillary.

[mary]

It's stuff like this that has to make you think:

"Corsi said Obama remained in active phone contact with Odinga through the New Hampshire Democratic Party primary in January. The Illinois senator continued to support Odinga, he said, turning a blind eye to an agreement signed with Muslims and the post-election violence instigated as part of the campaign strategy."

http://tinyurl.com/3qh9lp

and comments from Kenyans that they are "proud of their native son". What the heck is that supposed to mean?

[joeb]

Hillary said in a speech supporting Obama some time ago that: "The same people who pulled us out of the ditch in 1992 are standing by to pull us out of the ditch again". She was talking about the economy. What I want to know is who are these people and how will they pull us out of the ditch?

[befair]

McCain on CNN now giving a speech in Pennsylvania. I was half-heartedly listening - head him introduce his daughter Meghan and wife Cindy. Palin had just finished her introduction replete with bashes toward Obama. I do not remember the context in which McCain said it, but instead of saying "my friends" or "my fellow Republicsns" - he said "My fellow prisoners." There was a moment of stunned silence - McCain did not realize what he had said - his daughter looked shaken and even Palin turned off the grin. Come to think of it though, we really are prisoners of some sort in this election as I see it.

[hdtv]

hell, that wasn't a screwup.

But more seriously, you have to wonder about this guy's age/stamina. It shows at the end of these debates and it shows on the campaign trail. It's an unfortunate fact of life.

[chris]

Being stuck listening to that angry old fart babble does sort of make you a prisoner, I suppose. My fellow prisoners - how pathetic is that guy!

[mary]

I'm not so sure about his stamina, didn't barack say "I'm trying to keep up with John" last night. I think he wasn't kidding. People who have worked for him say he is very very energetic. Just ask the interns who need to get sleep after a day of following him around.

You guys with your "the guy is old and listless" plan of attack better think twice. Just look at the "old people" working in Florida at disney World or the ones working at the help desks in the airports. Geez as you walk by them exhausted and overwhelmed you wonder how they can be so chipper. Eventually, the old people lobby is going to complain about the characterization of them which may in fact be wholly false and unfair.

[mary]

BTW, I think John McCain does what he does by design. That was in fact a brilliant comment. It got you talking and thinking didn't it?

[chris]

It got me thinking of how pathetic and feeble that old man is. If he was a horse, he'd be dog food.

[jaime]

Cherry Pick Much?

The Hotline Poll has had trouble with its weighting all year. There are 2 serious problems with this poll that make it inconsistent with the others:

#1 They Spread in ID had been Dems +2% which is well below what actual voter identification and registration seems to be. They have weighted it back to +4 or +5, so by the end of the week, you'll be seeing movement back toward Obama.

#2 Hotline's Likely Voter model is self identified and doesn't include people who consider themselves somewhat likely or simply likely to vote in ANY way.

The voter ID bump alone will show itself tomorrow for Hotline. As for Zogby, they are...Zogby.

[jaime]

"you forgot the instructions to die hard Obama voters to "lie to the pollsters and say you are voting for McCain"

Mary, that is the single dumbest thing I've ever seen you write.

[seekeronos]

Chris/Bob:

Do your suppose your kids (or other younger people who may have responsibility toward you when your are old and grey) will be more than happy to feed you a potassium cyanide pill, or perhaps snuff you with a pillow, or yank the plug of your dialysis machine out of the wall ...

... because you have become such a tiresome burden of a senior citizen?

Will they giggle with youthful glee whilst your carcass grows cold, because another useless eater, a used-up doddering oldster has been removed from the social security rolls?

Something to think about there, while you grind away with your ax against your elders.

[mary]

Cnris, I don't click on links but I'll trust you that the wedding picture is indeed there. But since you are so good at answering my queries he is one for you: When did Barack pass the bar? Can't find his name on the bar rolls.

[chris]

You, my shiftless Lord-loving zealot friend, are the tiresome one.

At 72, I would not be running for president. If you do, expect to be mocked for your 'senior moments'.

As Chuck Baldwin once wrote in a letter to the Corinthians:

"There is no fool like an old fool"

Amen.

[jaime]

"Will they giggle with youthful glee whilst your carcass grows cold"

SOYLENT GREEN IS PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!!

[hdtv]

I think this is going to become a huge gaffe for McCain. It will play to McCain's stamina/age, it will play to POW trama, and it will play to the theme of being prisoners of a republican government. It adds uncertainty to McCain in uncertain times.

[chris]

When did Barack Obama pass the bar?? What kind of a question is that for an independent? Ever wonder how many planes that angry old man crashed? How about the number of affairs he's had. Hell, how many pills did Cindy need every day for the PAIN?

You're a nut with entirely too much time on your hands. Go talk to your cats.

[templar knight]

chris/Boob will get old one day, seek, and he'll pay for his sins, unless there be justice in this World, and then one of his friends he loves so much will kill him in an armed robbery, or perhaps a burglary. There will be all of three people at chris' funeral. The Left don't mourn the loss of one of their own. They're all just worm food in the end.

[chris]

Maybe your extraordinarily successful son can dress up and play a bugle at the funeral. Be all you can be!!!

[templar knight]

Hairychris/Boob, isn't your gay hangout serving drinks yet? You ought to go down there and commune with your fellow queers, and work out your frustrations. You and your friends can discuss the latest trends in interior decorating, or perhaps the new clothes for fall and winter. In any event, leave here.

[chris]

Oooh, gay jokes!! That's pretty lame. I hope you don't say things like that around your completely heterosexual daughter. She might get a complex or something.

[mary]

If you behave jaime I'll share the email with you.

[mary]

Chris, it is a really good question. I am an undecided voter. I have researched John McCain up the wazoo, (even learned some things I didn't think were so great) and now I'm concentrating on Obama, saved him for last. So I would really like to know when and in what state he passed the bar? It's a simple question really that speaks to his credentials and veracity with the constituency.

[jaime]

You're the one who made that dumb assertion. The onus is on you.

[templar knight]

How can those be gay jokes, chris, when your own website says you prefer hairy men? There is no accounting for taste, I suppose, at least in your case, chris/Boob. Are you now throwing your fellow gays under the bus? You're a pathetic human being, chris, just pathetic. You ought to at least dance(haha) with the ones who brung ya'.

[chris]

Hairy men? Website? Pathetic? You're don't appear to be very bright or rational. You clearly passed on your (lack of) innate intelligence to your kids not to mention what a terrible example that you must set for them. Instead, you try to assuage your guilt by buying them off later in life.

Private school or not - they never had a chance.

[chris]

Mary,

Here's your link about BO's legal career.

http://articles.latimes.com/2008/apr/06/nation/na-obamalegal6

He was editor of the Harvard Law Review too you know! Grandpa, on the other hand, finished 4th from the bottom of his class.

[mary]

5th. What I'm asking for is the actual link to the State where he passed the bar from the bar association and the state.

[templar knight]

chris, you're either a liar, or you're a sick puppy? Which one is it? Or both? Your HairyBobinStamford my space account claimed you loved hairy men. It was, excuse my French, exposed right here on Dan's blog. Now quit you're lying. I thought you gay people had pride.

[chris]

Mary,

You ask too many questions. Try google.

[chris]

"Now quit you're lying.' 'my space'.

So inarticulate too. It's sad. I'd like to say that maybe your 'better' half lent more to your kids development, but, judging by how they turned out, I guess not. Better get ready to buy the sapphist a Lexus or something - she deserves it!!

*sigh*

[seekeronos]

"--- At 72, I would not be running for president. If you do, expect to be mocked for your 'senior moments'. ---"

Ralph Nader is also running, and he is 74 this year. Not too many folks picking on him for his advanced years.

Ditto Ron Paul, who is the same age as McCain.

Or your boy George Soros, who is in that same age cohort.

All very competent men.

[mary]

seekeronos, one of those men appears to not have a conscience.

[tk]

Do you people really think the average, hard working American is answering these polling calls. Of course not. The pollsters weight the resolute in favor of dems. Believing the dems. do not respond as much as rep. It is just the opposite. Obama will lose by 8-10%

[Dave]

-- Honestly, I think voters keep taking a close look at him and continue to back away. If Hillary were running on the Dem side, my guess is we would be looking at 53 - 44 numbers, advantage Clinton. --

I'm not so sure about that. On one hand, she'd have run a far more professional campaign and her ties with radical leftists are a lot more distant (and has done rather more to distance herself from them). But on the other hand, she'd only have had the standard level of media support for Democrats, instead of the insane over-the-top in-the-tank version Obama's getting, and while Obama's inspiring to people who don't see through his nonsense, Hillary's not inspiring to anyone.