Those Big Ten Polls

Several damning Battleground polls popped up out of nowhere today. They were done by a group of Big Ten schools.

Just one observation from an early look. In the internals for Ohio the poll sample was comprised as follows: Dem 40% Rep 27% Ind 28%.

In 2004 Ohio exit poll results Party ID turned out to be Rep 40% Dem 35% Ind 25%.

Has Ohio changed that much in four years? We'll know on November 4th.

Comments

[hdtv]

I would not be surprised. The damage Bush (and congress) has done to the party has caused many to shift to independent or democratic. They also caused many independents to shift to democratic. It's also likely that local politics have had influence. More and more I see that traditional stereotypes no longer have party ownership. This could be a real problem for republicans in the future. Clearly McCain sought to maintain the Bush division and it didn't work for him. Dwindling republican numbers means that the Bush base is less important and even problematic in that a candidate can't simultaneously appeal to the base and attract democrats.

It could very well be that the legacy of the Bush presidency is the demise of the republican party to the extent that it needs a massive overhaul and redefinition to be viable in the future.

[Fred Beloit]

hdtv. Go to the bathroom. Look yourself in the eyes in the mirror. Say, "hd, you are in favor of civil rights, aren't you?"
WELL, AREN'T YOU? Then say so. "Yes I, hdtv, am in favor of civil rights. That is why I, hdtv, must thank President Bush and Senator McCain, in spite of politics, for destroying the regime of Saddam and bringing civil rights to Iraqis for the first time ever. Therefore, thank you Senator and Mr President."

[Fred Beloit]

But, don't stop there for God's sake, hdtv. Say the rest of it. Go on, don't lose the moment, say the rest. "I, hdtv, acknowledge that Reid, Pelosi, and my favorite candidate for President, Senator Obama, would never have brought civil rights to the Iraqis, but I will keep supporting these three Democrats anyway because I like them." Say it now, hdtv. Say it with pride in your feelings. No, no don't choke on the words say it out loud. Say, "I really don't give a s--- about Iraqi civil rights." Now, that's better isn't it?

[mary]

dan has done a wonderful job on his blog. As I see more and more discussions on non political blogs I begin to realize that people are hungry for the truth. I almost think it would be a good idea if people branched out onto blogs like this and spread the truth:

http://dealbreaker.com/2008/10/joe.php#comments

I post links to this blog all the time but I somehow wonder if people aren't just lazy and don't bother to click the links and read. Instead they may prefer a solid conversation with someone with knowledge.

[Worst President Ever]

Repeat after me Fred: WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs WMDs, WMDs, WMDs.

[Lala]

The problem with being an Independent is not being able to vote in Primaries in many states. The Primary is where the power is.

[Fred Beloit]

hdtv: "It could very well be that the legacy of the Bush presidency is the demise of the republican party to the extent that it needs a massive overhaul and redefinition to be viable in the future."

A Democrat speaks at the funeral of a party that isn't yet dead. Thank you so much for your help, but the definition of the Republican party is quite simple and doesn't need "redefinition", it just needs more faithful implementation. Here are a few terms of that definition:

(1)Defend the U.S. against all enemies, foreign and domestic [yes, you have read this someplace before].
(2) Defend the rights of the people as specified in the Constitution and its amendments.
(3) Minimize in so far as possible the reach of the government into our daily lives.
(3) Hold people responsible for their own actions and welfare.

[Fred Beloit]

Oh, worst, you want me to repeat Clinton's message? OK, you AH, from me to you with my compliments:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UsJmHtgpebo

[Worst President Ever]

Clinton wasn't president when we invaded Iraq. Duh.

[seekeronos]

"--- Thank you so much for your help, but the definition of the Republican party is quite simple and doesn't need "redefinition", it just needs more faithful implementation. Here are a few terms of that definition: ---"

I'd rather not have to say this... but though the definition is simple enough, too few people in that Big White Domed Building at the end of the Mall in DC with little (R)'s after their names seem to agree with you.

[Fred Beloit]

There is a television in another room. I hear Obama making more and more promises for giveaways to his admiring gift-takers. So many promises. He will be able to deliver on so very few of them. They simply cost too much. They remind me of Pelosi's promises, never delivered upon. How soon the fans forget. But they have stars in their eyes and greed in their hearts, bless them. We shall see.

[Fred Beloit]

"Clinton wasn't president when we invaded Iraq. Duh."
Of course not, he was strictly an air bomber. He didn't have the guts to invade anything. How about you, worst, are you for civil rights for all? Duh.

[Fred Beloit]

But the fact that Clinton said Iraq had WMDs only goes to show that your Big Lie about WMD is a lie. All Western intelligence felt Iraq had WMD. Bush would have been as dumb as you are to believe they didn't. No matter how many times you jerks repeat the lie, it will be refuted...even if the anti-free speech Dems get into power. This is the U.S. not the USSR, not yet, not yet.

[syn]

I read in the NYC newspapers that NYC Uber-Rich-White-Guy Real Estate honcho Halstead's Uber-Rich-White-Daugther is into Ohio real-estate, buying homes for mindless out-of-state twits to move in for a month so they can vote Ohio for Obama.

WPT, how was your time in Ohio and did Halstead provide good, clean affordable housing?

[seekeronos]

It'll be all good, Fred, until Obamastiltskin, the Wicked Witch of the House, and the Troll King from Nevada come to jackup taxes on everybody's payroll making over 42K/year in spite of all those rosy promises, and since Obama is a student of Paul "I never met a stagflation I didn't like" Volker, once the Fed's printing presses screech to a halt...

we get this:

Super High Taxes + Super High inflation + Super High Interest Rates in HOPE of correcting the inflation = MASSIVE unemployment + MASSIVE famine and food shortages + MASSIVE fuel costs x Civil Unrest on a scale unseen since the Confederate States opened fire on Ft. Sumter.

[Fred Beloit]

That's what I meant by implementation, seek. But I don't know that any of them would come right out and say they disagree. I could be wrong.

[Fred Beloit]

seek, I'm still waiting to hear whether the good Senator's magic number of $250,000 will be pegged to inflation.

[Fred Beloit]

Four years from Jan 1, at a growth rate of 5%, someone now making $175,000 will be making about $212,714 closing in on $250,000. And that is at only 5% per year income increase.

[Worst President Ever]

Perhaps you should review your Republican principles.

(3) Hold people responsible for their own actions and welfare.

Bush invaded Iraq, not Clinton. He brought it to the UN and Congress, not Clinton. It's his war. Period.

[seekeronos]

While I disagree with the war on principle of non-interventionism in general...

"--- Bush invaded Iraq, not Clinton. He brought it to the UN and Congress, not Clinton. It's his war. Period. ---"

... even I have to admit the the current condition of the Iraqis is much better than their former condition two years ago, and certainly much better than under Saddam's regime.

Clinton, by 1998 was on the verge of being a lame duck, and perhaps either out of cowardice, or out of a desire not to start a war that would have surely been left to his successor (regardless of party, but figuring since he likely anticipated Gore winning), he opted to keep up the no-fly zones, and ignore the fact that Saddam was slowly cooking up more WMDs.

Bush, for better or for worse, DID something about it.

[Fred Beloit]

Worst: "Perhaps you should review your Republican principles.
(3) Hold people responsible for their own actions and welfare.
Bush invaded Iraq, not Clinton. He brought it to the UN and Congress, not Clinton. It's his war. Period."

Exactly, my dear good friend. That is why hdtv and you owe Bush your thanks. That is if you really care about civil rights for all, which your words seem to indicate you don't.

You seem to be saying...do re mi mi mi...That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

[mary]

Yesterday I read something wherein the author suggested that there won't be enough "rich people" to tax to support BO's programs and that he will have to slowly go down the scale, first to $200, then $150, then $100 and so force. He made a pretty good case. So anyone who thinks they are going to get away with paying for all this is a fool who soon will be parted with their money.

[mary]

How come with BO's record collections in September, is he asking for another ten bucks from everyone. Why does he need that? Hasn't he spent more already than Bush and Kerry combined?

[Fred Beloit]

Now Worst, there is one more item. Gas around here now is about $2.45/gal. You, and most especially Harpo and Moe, mindlessly repeated in these august pages that Bush was responsible for high gasoline prices. So, repeat after me, you mutts, "Thank you for lowering the gas prices, Mr President."

[mj]

"Yes I, hdtv, am in favor of civil rights. That is why I, hdtv, must thank President Bush and Senator McCain, in spite of politics, for destroying the regime of Saddam and bringing civil rights to Iraqis for the first time ever"

Are you kidding me? I really don't care if the people of Iraq had civil rights or not. What I do care about is the fact that this unnecessary war has cost us billions of dollars plus the lives of 4,000 American soldiers.

So Bush and company gave Iraqis civil liberties while taking away the liberties of Americans at home. Sorry but that sounds like a bad deal to the American people.

We went to war based on a lie and we need to get the hell out of there.

[Lala]

Democrats outsourcing American jobs to foreign countries. Hypocrites!

Political attacks came from Romania
Sands files complaint with commissioner of political practices

By TOM LUTEY
Of The Gazette Staff
Republicans, furious about negative campaign phone calls made by Democrats last week in Billings, did everything but label the tactic un-American.

Turns out, they could have.

The calls were made from Romania, according to phone records submitted this week to the state commissioner of political practices.

read more at
http://www.billingsgazette.net/articles/2008/10/23/news/local/18-romania.txt

[seekeronos]

Mary, Fred, it is just bad news and bad for business all the way around.

We are coming into a very bad time on the Elliot Wave/Kondratieff super cycles (60-year cycle theory) exacerbated by horrifically poor policy which under a Democrat-hypermajority (read: unitary government) will be deeply worsened.

My wife and I were discussing Dr. Takahiko Soejima's findings about the convergence of all these cycles along with the attempts of certain ultra-rich liberal globalists to parlay this coming crisis into a world-wide government (blah, blah conspiracy theory stuff here) ... but that aside, Dr. Soejima has been spot on for most of his predictions.

In short, somewhere between 2009 and 2011, Dr. Soejima strongly believes that we will experience a depression event that at its bottom (most likely in 2011 just in time for the 2012 election cycle) will see the Dow fall to the 3,000-3,500 range, and the dollar devalued to around 50-60 yen to the dollar. Toss in hyperinflation approaching Weimar-Era levels on top of that monster, and the IRS becoming twice the goon-squad it wsa under Clinton... and life won't be pretty for anyone.

The Dollar historically has stayed within the range of $1 = 108 ~ 118 yen, for the past 20 years. And the Euro and Pound Sterling won't be too far behind, either... hence the lead-in to all that lurvely New World Order talk of a single world-wide currency union (likely to exclude Russia and China and their satellites) that will reduce all but the most wealthy (Soros, Gates, and the like) to crushingly, grindingly, medieval levels of poverty and squalor over a relatively short time.

[chris]

That sad old geezer can't even lock up the redneck vote

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081023/pl_nm/us_usa_politics_rural

Oh and mary, BO needs another $10 to definitively crush that angry coot and his idiot sidekick. Don't just beat em - humiliate them. And, if you send it, mary - BO will send you a nice shiny magnet which you can show to your mom and your cats.

[Fred Beloit]

Oh, and yet another item, Worst. My apologies of course. Don't let the current gas prices lull you into a liberal stupor. We must still say, "No drilling. No peace." Ten years will be here in no time, in a manner of speaking.

[seekeronos]

Adding to that, Bob, Dr. Soejima also predicted that Soros and the Rothschilds had BO's back ... from early 2007.

Their reasoning, according to Soejima, was that the biracial Obama would be palatable to the whites, while being able to control the blacks and inhibit them from rioting when civil order begins to break down by 2011.

[seekeronos]

EDIT:

Adding to that, Bob, Dr. Soejima also predicted that BO would win back in 2007, with Soros and the Rothschilds at BO's back.

[seekeronos]

Heh. Guess I oughta pony up $25 to Johnny Mac then, to offset Obatron's $10.

[chris]

Easy there big spender/end-of-days nutcase. The old man can't use your money. He took the public financing. Please tell us more about the esteemed Dr. Soejima though - he sounds like a real winner too.

[Lala]

Very, Very Funny

http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/10/secret_of_obama_tax_planned_re.html

excerpt

Finally, I asked the troubling question about how Obama will ensure a tax break for 95% of people--despite the fact that about 40% don't pay income taxes. He struggled with that one for a while. Again, it seemed to be a foreign concept to him, like no one had ever raised the subject before.

He stumbled through a series of answers. Obama would "give" the unemployed jobs so that they could pay taxes and get a tax break. When I reminded him that would only account for 6%, he--in a tribute to the American education system--said that Obama was really talking about the 55% difference between 95 and 40. I reminded him that Obama had specified 95%, not 55%. He replied that "Obama didn't really mean that." I asked if he, the caller, was really supporting a candidate who lied about something so important?

He told me to wait while he talked to his supervisor. I could overhear bits of a conversation in which he referred to me, rather politely, as "a difficult one." (At least he didn't call me THAT one.)

When he returned to the phone, he informed me that Obama would reach the 95% figure by initiating taxes on the 40% who don't pay income taxes now, so that he could later give them their promised tax break.

Out of the mouths of babes.

[Fred Beloit]

Ah, another lib genius weighs in with the SOS:
"Are you kidding me? I really don't care if the people of Iraq had civil rights or not."

Don't unnecessarily confine yourself so tightly geographically. Admit you you don't care about our rights anywhere, MoJo.

First Amendment: "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."

Second: "A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.

"So Bush and company gave Iraqis civil liberties while taking away the liberties of Americans at home. Sorry but that sounds like a bad deal to the American people."
All you need to tell us, Mojo is which American citizens lost what rights. If you can't do that, this statement of yours is just silly.

"We went to war based on a lie and we need to get the hell out of there."
There was no lie, there may have been a mistaken notion by the entire intelligence apparatus of the Western world that Saddam was a lot more ahead in his nuclear weapons plans than was thought at the time. There were chemical weapons Saddam used on his own population, which population you selfishly and callously care nothing about.
Your "concern" about the lives of American military is moving. Or rather would be if it weren't an obvious fiction. Who do you think you are fooling? You don't care any more about our military than you do about the hapless Iraqis, you creepy goon. It's great to meet you. You are just in time for Halloween.

[mary]

"CNN ripped the National Review's Byron York's quote completely out of context and stood its meaning on its head, all so they could dishonestly bash Gov. Palin with it. This is the lowest form of sub-tabloid journalism. CNN's distortion simply proves York to be correct: the media are out to destroy Sarah Palin.

"York's quote, properly cited, assails the media for its horrible misrepresentations of Gov. Palin. And CNN reinforces his assessment of their tactics by misrepresenting what he wrote so they could again bash Gov. Palin.

"CNN clearly knows they did something wrong, as evidenced by their removing the question from their online video. But that's not enough. CNN should immediately correct the record, and apologize to Gov. Palin, Byron York and National Review and their viewers who were again subjected to their special form of journalistic malpractice."

—Seton Motley is Director of Communications for the Media Research Center"
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/seton-motley/2008/10/22/mrc-nbs-bozell-comments-cnns-misquoting-national-review-slam-gov-palin

[jharp]

Just returned from seeing President Obama in downtown Indianapolis with my 15 year old son. A fantastic historic day.

And looking at the polls looks as if Obama has a good chance to win in one of the reddest and most racist states in the U.S.

And parking in downtown Indy was $1.50. Astounding.

[seekeronos]

"--- The old man can't use your money. He took the public financing. ---"

Part (1) is not true.. he can use the money. Part (2) is very true, unlike your lying, weasel-faced false messiah.

Therefore:

I can donate to the Republican Victory Fund, or to the GOP directly, whose flyers have been clogging up my mailbox for the past several days.

On second thought, the GOP would do better to cut funding to a lost cause, and shore up its defense of (R) senate seats, if it has any hope of staving off a Senate filibuster-proof aupermajority.

And Dr. Soejima is a rather clever fellow.

http://www.soejima.to/

You might want to learn some Japanese though, since precious little is available in English. You might like him - he polemics are fairly anti-American (specifically, very anti-Neo-conservative) though I shall forgive him of this fault, on account of the fact that he is something a Japanese patriot.

He does have a very high regard for Dr. Ron Paul, which makes him alright in my book.

To each his own country.

[jaime]

Man, seek, Jesus is totally going to smack the shit out of you before sending you to hell.

[jharp]

"We went to war based on a lie and we need to get the hell out of there."
There was no lie,

Fred,
Donald Rumsfeld lied where he said they new where the WMD's, around Tikrit and so forth....

Don't make me dig up his exact quote. Admit we were lied into war.

Rumsfeld lied and you know it.

[seekeronos]

"--- Just returned from seeing President Obama in downtown Indianapolis with my 15 year old son. A fantastic historic day. ---"

I do hope that you had a fainting couch on hand, or at least some smelling salts. Wouldn't want for you to have bumped your head on the way down.

[rightwingprof]

Exit polls are a self-selecting sample, and don't represent the percentages of voters. 40% of those who answered, instead of walking off with or without telling the pollster where to go, were Democrats. That's not the same thing as the percentage of voters who were Democrats.

I've seen a number of posts about the supposed Obama landslide among early voters, too. Thing is, no votes are counted until 4 November.

[Fred Beloit]

I hope you have all seen this by now: The End of Journalism As We knew It.
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2008/10/021842.php

[Fred Beloit]

Harpo, our own John Murtha: "And looking at the polls looks as if Obama has a good chance to win in one of the reddest and most racist states in the U.S."

[seekeronos]

"--- Man, seek, Jesus is totally going to smack the **** out of you before sending you to hell. ---"

Funny, my bible says:

"----- Which hope we have as an anchor of the soul, both sure and stedfast, and which entereth into that within the veil -----" (Hebrews 6:19, KJV)

And:

"----- In whom we have redemption through his blood, the forgiveness of sins, according to the riches of his grace -----" (Ephesians 1:7, KJV)

Now, God will discipline me where I err and sin, even as father does his child, because He loves me:

"-----
6 For whom the Lord loveth he chasteneth, and scourgeth every son whom he receiveth.
7 If ye endure chastening, God dealeth with you as with sons; for what son is he whom the father chasteneth not?
8 But if ye be without chastisement, whereof all are partakers, then are ye bastards, and not sons.
9 Furthermore we have had fathers of our flesh which corrected us, and we gave them reverence: shall we not much rather be in subjection unto the Father of spirits, and live?
-----"
(Hebrews 12:6-9, KJV)

So Jesus might "smack me" to correct me from sin, but He will never cast me into Hell, for I have believed on Him unto salvation. And God never goes back on His word.

[Fred Beloit]

Sometime a comment is so vividly stupid that it a waste of time trying to communicate with the commenter. This is such a case:

Fred,
Donald Rumsfeld lied where he said they new where the WMD's, around Tikrit and so forth....
Don't make me dig up his exact quote. Admit we were lied into war.
Rumsfeld lied and you know it."

[Fred Beloit]

But, it is necessary to refute lies each and every time they appear. Every intelligence agency in the Western World thought Saddam had WMD ready or nearly ready to use. This information is widely available on Google. Any head of state would have been a fool not to believe it. Even the UN believed it, voting in 17 resolutions demonstrating that belief.

[mj]

Fred, you give such cute nicknames. Did you pick up the habit from George W. Bush?

I care about American rights. We need to take care of America first, before going off and trying to play Superman for the rest of the world.

You don't consider the Patriot Act or Guantanamo Bay as taking away the rights of Americans? Sorry, but I do.

You have no idea about my thoughts on the military. You have no idea of the number of friends and classmates I have that are serving over there. You have this B.S. idea that someone who is a Democrat doesn't care about the military or our country. Sorry if I don't want my friends to killed in an unnecessary war. I disagree with the mission in Iraq but I certainly don't want anymore soldiers killed. That's why I say pull them out.

Fred, how have you supported the military? Do you just act as a cheerleader and support everything they do?

[mark l.]

the ohio poll is bogus...

unless the following favorability ratings are a true representation:

mccain 49%
obama 60%.
(bush 29%.)

rassmussen has fav/unfav at-
obama 55/44
mccain 58/42.

I sincerely doubt mccain is below 50% in favorabilty, and both candidates should be about even on favorabilty.

rassmussen obama +3
big 10 obama +11?

peaking at the quinnipiac poll for ohio, which has it 52-38, what I found interesting is the race demographics.

ohio is 84% white, and quinipiac provided a mccain advantage of 52-41, among white voters. .52*.84 is roughly 43.7%.
yet they have him with a base vote of 38%. To achieve that outcome, quinnipiac would have to be using a 73% demographics for white voters. funny things are going on with these polls...

[chris]

It's hi-larious how the 22%ers simply can't get their feeble minds around the fact that their angry old candidate is about to get humiliated. Imagine, after 8 years of arguably the worst presidency in history they think that they really had a shot.

Funny stuff. To think 4 years of waking up to President B. Hussein Obama. Priceless!