So, Where Do Things Stand?

Update: As I was saying:

John McCain's campaign manager says he is reconsidering using Barack Obama's relationship with Reverend Jeremiah Wright as a campaign issue during the election's closing weeks.

First off, do not fall into the trap of thinking this race is over - it's not. Let me point out some things.

If you never saw or heard about any polling, based upon media coverage and fundraising, you would expect Obama to be up very big - in the neighborhood of 52/54 to McCain's 44/46. That isn't the case. Obama continues to struggle to break fifty-percent consistently.

Assuming Obama is up by around 5 nationally, it is not unusual to have the Democrat leading the Republican by that margin two weeks out from the election. I'm not saying things are great. But I am saying it isn't over. Obama wants and needs you to think that, the media wants to make it true - and obviously so do the Democrats as a group. Don't fall for it and certainly don't despair.

Now take a look at the battleground state numbers. There's a lot that can happen in two weeks and many of those battleground states have margins smaller than five points.

Will undecideds break late for Obama and make the thing a landslide? It could happen. But McCain is the one currently showing at least a slight amount of momentum ticking his numbers up nationally, so it is not unfathomable that within two weeks those states become real nail biters. And if his momentum continues, McCain should also take the lead in some of those states, as state polls tend to lag behind the national numbers.

In short, anything can happen and there is still time for "anything" to happen. Obama worked very hard to conceal his past for a reason. No one tries to write their own biography twice when so young if they aren't both narcissistic and desperate to control the narrative around thier life.

Does someone know something damaging we don't know about Obama? Frankly, you can bet on it. Will it come out before November 4th? I have no idea and am not speculating about any specific story. I'm only trying to reinforce the notion that, with two weeks to go, anything can happen. With all the surprises we've had already this year - perhaps something will.

And who knows. Americans might also balk at providing a rubber stamp president to a liberal controlled Congress with approval numbers below those of George Bush.

If McCain can make the right case for the next two weeks - he can win. Meanwhile, Obama needs very much to act Presidential to try and convince undecideds he's worthy of the job. That isn't always easy in the back and forth of a presidential campaign.

Comments

[jaime]

"What are those 7 territories?"

Technically. Puerto Rico, Guam, U.S. Virgin Islands, Northern Marianas, Marshal Islands, Micronesia, American Samoa, although 56 states and territories voted in the Primaries.

[mary]

I don't understand why Michelle and the kids aren't accompanying him to Hawaii, I mean if she is dying shouldn't she see the kids?

[mary]

dan, is this the lawsuit we've been hearing about or a new one?

"Posted on: Saturday, October 18, 2008

Suit targets Obama document
Foe of presidential candidate wants birth certificate, related files
By Suzanne Roig
Advertiser Staff Writer

The lawsuit was filed yesterday in state Circuit Court by Internet columnist and author Andy Martin.

Martin has written a book called "Senator Obama," and disclosed in a telephone conversation yesterday about his lawsuit that he opposes Obama's election and is the executive director of The Stop Obama Coalition.

The lawsuit filed in Honolulu seeks to have the court order the state to turn over a copy of Obama's birth certificate, and related files and records.

The lawsuit names Gov. Linda Lingle and Dr. Chiyome Fukino, health department director.

Attorney General Mark Bennett said he had not seen the lawsuit and could not comment on it."

http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/20081018/NEWS05/810180353/1001/LOCALNEWSFRONT

[Rich K]

It seems jharp is going for the Golden Troll award 2 weeks in a row. Persistant fellow he is.
As to this meme business concerning the campaign,Its all good. I would truly like to find any hint of a silver lining in O'benothings resume to make me even think of voting his way but alas there is nothing there.Luckily most of the shout out crowd who claim to be voting his way are as flaky at voting as every other thing they mean to do in life. "It's just too much trouble and why wont they pay me to vote damnit",Its work to stand in that line,Waaa!!

[Lala]

Jaime - your 7 territories - check again

[Woofguy]

jharp,

That drug addict Limbaugh? Oh, you must have meant your Presidential candidate. Or was that youthful exuberance? Nah, he's a dope.

And now your happy with Colin Powell? How convenient.

Classy group the Republicans? How about the Dem replacing Foley? Really classy.

[BobinStamford]

The age of the redneck comes to an end in 2 weeks - and not a moment too soon

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081021/ap_on_el_pr/obama_dead_bear

Hopefully President Obama will have a resettlement plan for these angry rednecks. Deportation may be the only solution.

#3 will live forever!!

[Lala]

Murtha's rednecks will be moving to CT soon.

[seekeronos]

"--- Hmmmm. Just what would you call very soon? ---"

By around 2012, with an effective ground game in western 'red' states (honestly, the bi-colour scheme for rending (R) red and (D) blue has always baffled me when red has typically been the colour of socialists). Possibly some Southern states as well.

Not too optimistic on the coastal liberal cities (the more rural areas states surrounding them run moderate to conservative) on either coast, although by 2016 we might be able to cultivate enough of a resistance to make the (D)s spend money in blue state rural markets.

If indeed the GOP collapses, that might be a very good thing for the CP as many on the right of the GOP are thoroughly disgusted with the wishy-washiness and moral weakness of the GOP.

"--- And good luck with the Constitution Party. I promise to take a good long serious look once we are rid of the GOP. ---"

Honestly, you may or may not like the CP.

We certainly aren't FDR liberals. We are a mix of paleo-conservatives in the tradition of the late Sen. Robert A. Taft (1889 - 1953, may his soul find repose in the Lord) minarchist/libertarians who believe in minimal federal government as prescribed by the Constitution, states rights, and non-interventionism (no foreign/overseas wars or stationing of our military).

We also trend somewhat socially conservative, so issues like defence of unborn life and sanctity of family and of marriage, defence of our borders, and promotion of faith-based ventures (but not financially backed by the federal government) are of interest to us as well.

http://www.constitutionparty.org

[seekeronos]

And in the interest of promoting civility despite our various different positions and opinions here at RWV, let us pray for travelling mercies for both Senator Obama, and for his grandmother's good health.

[seekeronos]

"--- dead bear ---"

Perfectly good waste of a bear - both for the meat and for the pelt, if ye ask me.

[Spartan112]

Uncle Joe is really slow. Nah, your dumber.

Posted by: Woofguy | Monday, October 20, 2008 at 09:14 PM

Oh the irony.

[Spartan112]

dan, is this the lawsuit we've been hearing about or a new one?

"Posted on: Saturday, October 18, 2008

Suit targets Obama document
Foe of presidential candidate wants birth certificate, related files
By Suzanne Roig
Advertiser Staff Writer

The lawsuit was filed yesterday in state Circuit Court by Internet columnist and author Andy Martin.

Martin has written a book called "Senator Obama," and disclosed in a telephone conversation yesterday about his lawsuit that he opposes Obama's election and is the executive director of The Stop Obama Coalition.

The lawsuit filed in Honolulu seeks to have the court order the state to turn over a copy of Obama's birth certificate, and related files and records.

The lawsuit names Gov. Linda Lingle and Dr. Chiyome Fukino, health department director.

Attorney General Mark Bennett said he had not seen the lawsuit and could not comment on it."

http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/20081018/NEWS05/810180353/1001/LOCALNEWSFRONT

Posted by: mary | Tuesday, October 21, 2008 at 03:13 AM

Andy Martin is well known for his baseless lawsuits and his incredible anti-semitism. Sean Hannity may feel comfortable associating himself with men like that but you might want to think twice about it Mary.

[scarshapedstar]

"The pathetic conceit of Leftists is laughable. They actually think that they're intellectuals."

I don't think "pathetic conceit" means what you think it means. If anything, the term seems more applicable to Michelle Malkin and Charles Johnson envisioning vast conspiracies of Muslims (or "arabs", if you're a dumb-as-a-f*ckin'-anvil retiree at a McCain event) and Mexicans and Michael Moore and the French working tirelessly to silence them and undermine the most brilliant president in history.

[mary]

"Andy Martin is well known for his baseless lawsuits and his incredible anti-semitism. Sean Hannity may feel comfortable associating himself with men like that but you might want to think twice about it Mary.

Posted by: Spartan112 | Tuesday, October 21, 2008 at 09:12 AM"

I didn't ask to be threatened spartan, though you did, I asked a serious question.

Is this the same lawsuit or a different on. That was the question you failed to answer.

[mary]

With three Oprah produced television specials and more commercials than the McCain camp could ever hope to pay for, it seems that BO doesn't have to worry a bit about his victory.

[mary]

nd fro the guy who brought you "jobs", the new three letter word:

“stand with him. Because it’s not gonna be apparent that we’re right”

Now matter how you slice it and dice it, that comment scares the crap out of me.

[Lala]

Sean Hannity interviewed Khalid Muhammad and Malik Shabazz. Does that mean he agrees with them?

[mary]

"Charlie Gasparino reports that the Merrill Lynch "head of strategy" will be departing the firm in the next several days. Severance: $10 million."
http://dealbreaker.com/

[mary]

In the vein of law suits, instanpundit linked here:

http://blogs.knoxnews.com/knx/granju/2008/10/id-love-to-see-the-actuarial-t.html

Sometimes I think we are all in an alternate universe.

[Lala]

Barney Frank was on CNBC this morning calling for more taxes

and then there's this

http://www.investmentnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081012/REG/310139971

House Democrats contemplate abolishing 401(k) tax breaks
Mandatory contributions from workers considered
By Sara Hansard
October 12, 2008, 6:01 AM EST

Powerful House Democrats are eyeing proposals to overhaul the nation's $3 trillion 401(k) system, including the elimination of most of the $80 billion in annual tax breaks that 401(k) investors receive.

read more at link

[Lala]

Mary,
Did you follow the Canadian kangaroo court trial against Mark Steyn and Ezra Levant by the Canadian Human Rights commission? They had the money to defend themselves, thankfully.

[hdtv]

"make the thing a landslide"

I don't think there will ever be another landslide in terms of popular vote. The political wheels are well greased on both sides. The engineers on both sides know what buttons to push to align people to either side. They have resolved campaign efforts down to the county and town. They know which groups of voters matter and which don't.

For McCain to win, he will need 10 clones, a bunch more money, and a strategy. He needs all the toss up states and CO and VA or CO, NM, and one of Obama's solids. It's highly unlikely. It doesn't appear he can't maintain FL or perhaps any toss up state without being there.

Use of Wright and the socialist cry will backfire on McCain just like everything else he has done. Neither is a strong argument and both look desperate. McCain hasn't yet closed the deal on voter trust. It may be too late. At this point, he needs to communicate why he is the best candidate in terms of his policies.

[mary]

What really disturbs me lately are the "tactics". Was reading someone's blog last night and they were talking about the fact that the founders of google and yahoo and facebook all support BO. They were saying that before "the last push to defeat hillary" their blogs, which were decidedly pro hillary, went down and disappeared. They ruminated that,"were it not for their faithful readers and their protestations" they might not have come back. Oddly enough since many of them have gone anti BO, they now think this will happen to them again in the next two weeks. They were actually reminding their readers to protest and carry on so that their blogs come back. The thought occurred to me after reading this how power google and yahoo have if they have control over so many blogs.

[Lala]

How will an Obama presidency affect our economy?

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=309394436809825

Our No. 1 trading partner, Canada, isn't stupid. When Obama threatened last February to rewrite the North American Free Trade Agreement on his own terms, our northern ally started looking abroad to other markets.

They found a big one in Europe, which seems to have few hang-ups about increasing exports and signing free-trade treaties. Last Friday, Canada and the European Union held the first talks toward an eventual free trade agreement between the two.

read more at link

[Worst President Ever]

You're delusional - there is no "blind faith of liberals". Everyone knows Obama could still lose for a number of reasons.

McSleaze has given up winning the election on issues - he's down to sliming Obama even more. "Honor" and "Country First" doesn't really apply when push comes to shove.

Nice Christian attitude Seek - you ever think his grandmother might actually be seriously ill and he's going to see her because she's family and he loves her? You're turning into a major-league hack. Jesus would be soooo proud.

[Lala]

Why wait until Thursday to go see your desperately ill grandmother? I've heard that Obama's children have never met her, is that true?

[chris]

I've heard that you are a sad south-shore housewife who doesn't get out much. Is that true? You should hook up with mary. I'm sure you'd be great friends.

[mary]

Lala, I re posted your 401K story here:

http://dealbreaker.com/2008/10/layoffs-watch-08-ncc.php#comments

It is interesting to read their comments.

[ScotlandGuy]

A good and fair assessment of what's been going on, and it's definitely too early to call anything about Obama "leading" the race. I think there are plenty of people polled who say they will support him, but how many people will really show up at the polls is a different matter completely.

[David M]

The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the - Web Reconnaissance for 10/21/2008 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day...so check back often.

http://thunderrun.blogspot.com/2008/10/web-reconnaissance-for-10212008.html

[LOL]

It's over guys.

McCain is pulling out of Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado. Get that? McCain is giving up on 3 Bush states.

[Anon]

Oy, stop dreaming, McCain is going to lose.

He might have stood a chance if they had handled Palin better by not hiding her out or by giving the networks HOURS of access they could edit however they liked. She's not stupid or incompetant but the campaign's stupidity and incompetance neutralized her appeal and turned her into a polarizing figure.

He should have played the Wright/Ayers cards over the summer when it would have done some good, not now when it looks desperate.

Obama is going to win and chances are there is going to be a much, much bigger Dem majority in Congress. The ONLY hope, I repeat the ONLY hope is for the Republicans to retool back to their pre-Bush, pre-DeLay roots and wait for the midterm election in 2010 and try and field a decent presidential candidate in 2012.

[LOL]

I for one welcome a revival of paleo-conservatism. Not an ideology i agree with, but at least it's a consistent one.

McCain is done btw. He's leaving iowa, NM, and Colorado. You wingnuts have zero hope.

[LOL]

oops ROFL

[Fred Beloit]

Boob says constituents ready to throw Murtha out of office: "The age of the redneck comes to an end in 2 weeks - and not a moment too soon."
Or is it the age of the "rednose"?

[Lala]

Palin drew a large crowd in Colorado yesterday - over 10,000.

Here's some Obama supporters

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/21/palin.motorcade/#cnnSTCVideo

[Worst President Ever]

McCain has to sweep the battleground states while Obama only needs one or two of them to win. The map is ugly, ugly, ugly for McCain. If you look at the RCP page, all those states that are tilting towards Obama went to Bush in 2000/2004.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data

*************

Look, voter fraud:

SACRAMENTO -- The owner of a firm that the California Republican Party hired to register tens of thousands of voters this year was arrested in Ontario over the weekend on suspicion of voter registration fraud.

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-fraud20-2008oct20,0,3842357.story

*************

Hey ET, Look up McCain's joke about Chelsea Clinton, then get back to me on who's classless.

[Spartan112]

I didn't ask to be threatened spartan, though you did, I asked a serious question.

Is this the same lawsuit or a different on. That was the question you failed to answer.

Posted by: mary | Tuesday, October 21, 2008 at 09:38 AM

Did I threaten you? Where did you read that?

[Trosp]

From the sideline (I'm not a US voter), is this US presidential election be decided on how many are watching FoxNews and those listening to Limbaugh? If this is so, then the pair of McCain-Palin would have a smooth sailing.

All I know is voters have their bias unless they're ignorant or they have been bribed(ACORN?).

[Spartan112]

Sean Hannity interviewed Khalid Muhammad and Malik Shabazz. Does that mean he agrees with them?

Posted by: Lala | Tuesday, October 21, 2008 at 09:48 AM

You call what Sean Hannity did "interviewing" Andy Martin? Not a single question about his qualifications to present his case against Obama, not a single question about his past actions and his opinions on Jews and minorities...

[mary]

spartan, the threat was there.

As regards this martin guy, I don't even know anything about him. I was asking the simple question of whether or not this was a new lawsuit. Apparently, after an exhaustive search I have reached the conclusion that I was only aware of one lawsuit and then this one but that others are saying there have been a total of four lawsuits.

You have to wonder why someone would rather go to the expense of defending themselves against four lawsuits when all you have to do is go to a neutral party, have them certify your birth certificate and be done with it. I also don't understand, if the guy is a presidential candidate, aren't the american people entitled to see the birth certificate under the freedom of information act? Why all the lawsuits?

I am trying to understand how this guy thinks. As, contrary to what some of you think, I am now at the point of maybe not even voting. I have to figure out a reason to vote for either of these two and so far, other than Continetti's piece in the weekly standard, I haven't been given any better reason.

[seekeronos]

"--- Obama is going to win and chances are there is going to be a much, much bigger Dem majority in Congress. The ONLY hope, I repeat the ONLY hope is for the Republicans to retool back to their pre-Bush, pre-DeLay roots and wait for the midterm election in 2010 and try and field a decent presidential candidate in 2012. ---"

I am looking at an minor electoral landslide in the ballpark of 350~360 for Obama vs. the 175~185 range for McCain, and an overwhelming crush of both the Senate (at least 58-42, likely 61-39 in favor of Dems) as well as magnifying the House to a supermajority.

Faced with a socialist supermajority for the first time ever, and the largest liberal supermajority since the 1932 and 1964 landslides, the incoming socialist Congress would do well to remember that it is very far to the left of the mainstream/centre of most Americans (that is to say, most voters haven't got a fleeting clue as to how staunchly collectivist the new blood mixed with the Old Guard truly is).

If they want to prevent backlash and be voted out in the 2010s and 2012s, they'll have to tone down their radical agenda quite a bit. Incrementalism is usually a far better gambit, lest they repeat the errors of the 89th Congress (1965) that pushed through very pogressive legislation, but step on its own feet in the process.

Of course, I am not counting on the D's to exercise nary a hint of restraint, but to overreach so far, that it will almost guarantee an (R) return of some sort, if they have the wisdom to regroup and return to true Republican conservatism.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~

"--- Nice Christian attitude Seek - you ever think his grandmother might actually be seriously ill and he's going to see her because she's family and he loves her? You're turning into a major-league hack. ---"

Just my opinion. I'm blessed with a certain toxic cynicism of our soon-to-be Dear Leader's motives. It isn't like Obama needs to do much of anything at this point - he could lock himself in a broom closet for the next two weeks -- and he will still coast into an easy victory, as far as the polls and the media are concerned.

And as I said elsewhere, we should pray for the Senator's travelling mercies and the health of his grandmother.

[Spartan112]

spartan, the threat was there.

As regards this martin guy, I don't even know anything about him. I was asking the simple question of whether or not this was a new lawsuit. Apparently, after an exhaustive search I have reached the conclusion that I was only aware of one lawsuit and then this one but that others are saying there have been a total of four lawsuits.

You have to wonder why someone would rather go to the expense of defending themselves against four lawsuits when all you have to do is go to a neutral party, have them certify your birth certificate and be done with it. I also don't understand, if the guy is a presidential candidate, aren't the american people entitled to see the birth certificate under the freedom of information act? Why all the lawsuits?

I am trying to understand how this guy thinks. As, contrary to what some of you think, I am now at the point of maybe not even voting. I have to figure out a reason to vote for either of these two and so far, other than Continetti's piece in the weekly standard, I haven't been given any better reason.

Posted by: mary |

I still challenge you to locate the "threat" you are referring to. As for the lawsuit, it's a baseless waste of court time. Obama has posted a copy of his Certificate of Live Birth online. He's under no obligation to do anything else.

[mary]

If enough voters are asking, he has a moral obligation. Many people will tell you that the only thing stopping Arnold from running for the presidency is the fact that he was born in Austria. Maria Shriver, like Cindy McCain, would make an amazing first lady.

[Spartan112]

If enough voters are asking, he has a moral obligation. Many people will tell you that the only thing stopping Arnold from running for the presidency is the fact that he was born in Austria. Maria Shriver, like Cindy McCain, would make an amazing first lady.

Posted by: mary |

Ok, fine. Factcheck.org has certified that the document in question is genuine and has even posted pics of it and a pic of the birth anouncement from the Honolulu paper in 1961. What else would you like? Would you like a certified copy to be passed around to everyone in the US?

Unlike McCain of course, Obama was actually born in the US.

[mary]

Actually, I've heard that Factcheck.org doesn't always get their facts straight. Maybe he should have it certified the way McCains was certified.

[mary]

You see spartan, I'm still a little upset for the poor HS kid who was dumped at an Obama rally in favor of more idiots talking. The poor kid wasn't singing for more than what? two minutes? Stuff like that there is no excuse for. It just makes me sad that you would have a rally for a presidential candidate and not have the pledge of allegiance and the Star Spangled Banner.

[Spartan112]

Mary, you've asked for a neutral group to certify the document and two have done so. The state of Hawaii and factcheck.org. Be as good as your word and admit you are wrong on this one.

[Spartan112]

"It just makes me sad that you would have a rally for a presidential candidate and not have the pledge of allegiance and the Star Spangled Banner."

Yeah, and I bet it makes you mad when candidates don't wear flag pins too!