So, Where Do Things Stand?

Update: As I was saying:

John McCain's campaign manager says he is reconsidering using Barack Obama's relationship with Reverend Jeremiah Wright as a campaign issue during the election's closing weeks.

First off, do not fall into the trap of thinking this race is over - it's not. Let me point out some things.

If you never saw or heard about any polling, based upon media coverage and fundraising, you would expect Obama to be up very big - in the neighborhood of 52/54 to McCain's 44/46. That isn't the case. Obama continues to struggle to break fifty-percent consistently.

Assuming Obama is up by around 5 nationally, it is not unusual to have the Democrat leading the Republican by that margin two weeks out from the election. I'm not saying things are great. But I am saying it isn't over. Obama wants and needs you to think that, the media wants to make it true - and obviously so do the Democrats as a group. Don't fall for it and certainly don't despair.

Now take a look at the battleground state numbers. There's a lot that can happen in two weeks and many of those battleground states have margins smaller than five points.

Will undecideds break late for Obama and make the thing a landslide? It could happen. But McCain is the one currently showing at least a slight amount of momentum ticking his numbers up nationally, so it is not unfathomable that within two weeks those states become real nail biters. And if his momentum continues, McCain should also take the lead in some of those states, as state polls tend to lag behind the national numbers.

In short, anything can happen and there is still time for "anything" to happen. Obama worked very hard to conceal his past for a reason. No one tries to write their own biography twice when so young if they aren't both narcissistic and desperate to control the narrative around thier life.

Does someone know something damaging we don't know about Obama? Frankly, you can bet on it. Will it come out before November 4th? I have no idea and am not speculating about any specific story. I'm only trying to reinforce the notion that, with two weeks to go, anything can happen. With all the surprises we've had already this year - perhaps something will.

And who knows. Americans might also balk at providing a rubber stamp president to a liberal controlled Congress with approval numbers below those of George Bush.

If McCain can make the right case for the next two weeks - he can win. Meanwhile, Obama needs very much to act Presidential to try and convince undecideds he's worthy of the job. That isn't always easy in the back and forth of a presidential campaign.

Comments

[chris]

Um, even if McSame gets all of those swing votes he still loses. He really screwed the pooch when he picked that idiot.

Something to consider:

"As Putin rears his head and comes into the airspace of the United States of America, where do they go?"

Hmmm

[jaime]

"But McCain is the one currently showing at least a slight amount of momentum ticking his numbers up nationally"

That's McCain hitting his ceiling with the base. If the undecideds all go to McCain, Obama squeaks one out. If they split, Obama wins big. If they go to Obama then it's a landslide of epic proportions.

BTW, the very last person on the face of the earth that should have ANY credibility reading the polling tea leaves is Dan "Made myself look stupid calling the election for George Allen" Riehl.

[jaime]

"He really screwed the pooch when he picked that idiot."

When he picked that SOCIALIST idiot, also. 'member that one time when Sarah Palin taxed oil companies in Alaska and gave 1200 dollars to every tax payer in Alaska. 'member? 'member?

'member when she spread the wealth around? 'member?
Also.

[Kitty]

"When he picked that SOCIALIST idiot, also. 'member that one time when Sarah Palin taxed oil companies in Alaska and gave 1200 dollars to every tax payer in Alaska. 'member? 'member?"

Here are the facts:
http://carywesberry.blogtownhall.com/2008/08/31/the_facts_on_gov_sarah_palins_oil_tax_in_alaska_-_reversing_corruption.thtml
"Governor Palin did what any conservative worth their own soul would have done. She gave tax dollars that were literally stolen from Alaskan taxpayers right back to them and appropriately reversed corrupt tax policy. Not only did she bring ethics back to the tax policy in regards to the oil industry in Alaska, she improved the policy itself in her proposal."

...

[Soulblighter]

"BTW, the very last person on the face of the earth that should have ANY credibility reading the polling tea leaves is Dan "Made myself look stupid calling the election for George Allen" Riehl."

I think Dan's gonna need some aloe for that burn...

[ET]

--He really screwed the pooch when he picked that idiot.

Right, like botox biden is a freakin genius.

--Because I promise you, you all are gonna be sitting here a year from now going, 'Oh my God, why are they there in the polls? Why is the polling so down? Why is this thing so tough?' We're gonna have to make some incredibly tough decisions in the first two years. So I'm asking you now, I'm asking you now, be prepared to stick with us. Remember the faith you had at this point because you're going to have to reinforce us."

--"There are gonna be a lot of you who want to go, 'Whoa, wait a minute, yo, whoa, whoa, I don't know about that decision'," Biden continued. "Because if you think the decision is sound when they're made, which I believe you will when they're made, they're not likely to be as popular as they are sound. Because if they're popular, they're probably not sound."

Somebody's managing expectations down, it seems to me. Here's the link:

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/10/biden-to-suppor.html

Who's hiding from the press now? Seems like they are keeping joey hairplugs out of harm's way (read: out of his own way)

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/10/20/politics/fromtheroad/entry4531447.shtml

Blast the republican ticket all you want. Our number 2 has more experience and balls than your number one. Your number two is just a tool.

Cast your votes proudly, liberals.

[Fred]

1. thier => their

2. No matter how hard one stares at the tea leaves, they do not speak.

3. Rudeness has no place, calling someone an idiot is just rude; Nobody listens. There is some reason that rudeness and profanity is found much more often on the Left and Democratic side. I'm not sure what it is.

[steveaz]

Dan wrote:
"No one tries to write their own biography twice when so young if they aren't both narcissistic and desperate to control the narrative around their life."

I got Obama's narcissism all on my own. But I hadn't yet considered that he rewrote his biography in order to tailor-make a political identity for himself. Could it be?

From what I know from working with media and political types, I say it's very likely.

[jaime]

"Who's hiding from the press now?"

Biden hasn't held a press conference in a month. Palin has NEVER had a press conference. And no, softly lit interviews with Sean Hannity, taking 5 questions before being whisked away by your handlers, and performing in SNL skits don't count.

[ET]

--And no, softly lit interviews with Sean Hannity, taking 5 questions before being whisked away by your handlers, and performing in SNL skits don't count.

Ah, but "gotcha" interviews with Chuckles Gibson and Cutie Couric do count? They must, since that is what your kind has based their opinion of Palin on...those and the Tina Fey IMITATIONS on SNL.

Very deep thinkers, you libs.

We all know that botox biden is a fool, and now he really looks the part with his pasty skin and surgically enhanced eyes. Barry had to pick this loser to gain credibility??? Wow.

[Lala]

Calculate your taxes - what you will pay for 2008 - and then compare that to what you paid in 2000 - before Pres. Bush's tax cut. Obama is going to repeal that tax cut.

http://patriotroom.com/?p=3158 - click on the link

Then, go here http://alchemytoday.com/obamataxcut/
Ignore the red, blazing numbers and see the difference between the McCain plan and the Obama plan. Don't forget this does not take into account repealing the Pres. Bush tax cuts.

Now add them together.

[jaime]

Ah, but "gotcha" interviews with Chuckles Gibson and Cutie Couric do count?

"What newspapers do you read?" is a gotcha question?!?

Sarah Palin is dumber than a warm glass of milk and you know it.

[Woofguy]

Jaime,

Not as dumb as you, really. And I know it.

[Woofguy]

Jaime,

As a matter of fact, if you ran with Mr. Biden, it could be Dumb and Dumber. I don't know which of you is dumb, but I'll give you the benefit of doubt, because Uncle Joe is really slow. Nah, your dumber.

[don]

"Sarah Palin is dumber than a warm glass of milk and you know it."

At least Palin knows how many states we have. The Obamunist thinks we have 57. What a genius!

I'm sure you could do a web search of Obama's and Biden's gaffes. There must be long lists. It seems that every time Biden opens his mouth he puts his foot in it.

By the way, what do you do for a living that makes you so much smarter than Palin?

She has accomplished greater things in her lifetime than you could ever dream of doing.

The pathetic conceit of Leftists is laughable. They actually think that they're intellectuals.

How can people who have absolutely no ability to perceive and to evaluate objective reality be true intellectuals?

How can you perceive reality when you are blinded by a political ideology?

[skeptical]

If McCain doesn't act presidential, he'll lose. If you believe polls, you'll notice that Palin didn't help him, but more especially, making Ayers the issue didn't help him. Rick Davis says they're reconsidering Wright. That won't help him, either. It's just a distraction, and makes him look petty outside of the angry, embittered right wing.

He could have taken Obama if he hadn't copped to all the Bush tactics, and he doesn't know the difference between a tactic and a strategy. He won all those news cycles, just as Schmidt wanted, and it hurt him because it was all negative garbage. So now Davis is pulling out more. Brilliant. And he'll get more news cycles for having gone for Wright having said he won't. That won't show people that Obama is a dick for hanging with Wright for 20 years, it'll show that McCain isn't presidential again.

Same with "Socialist," folks. You guys sound utterly out of touch with that. Your Republican president just nationalized the banks, both Obama and McCain voted for it, the "conservative" house Republicans refused to until they got the pot "sweetened" for another $150b, and your candidate is running around calling Obama a socialist. McCain is promising to buy everyone's house for them, and Obama is a socialist. Bush and the Republican Congress passed the biggest medical give-away by buying Medicare recipients their meds, lying about the price, and Obama is a socialist. Palin ran around reminding everyone about the Bridge to Nowhere, claiming to have killed it personally, but nobody believes her, and the Thanks But No Thanks meant she used the same money for other earmarks, and Obama is a socialist for wanting a $3 million projector for the Chicago Planetarium, and he's the socialist. No offense, guys, but somebody looking at his unemployment running out around Christmas probably doesn't care what you call it. Somebody's grandmother losing her home doesn't care what you call it.

But let'er rip, guys. I can see why the right is angry and bitter after all your hopes were pinned to Bush and Lott and Frist and Rumsfeld and Cheney and Hastert and Delay and they screwed up the war, bankrupted the country, nationalized medicine and the banks and Wall Street, and all you got were these lousy tee-shirts with Obama's face with a big red X.

[jaime]

"The Obamunist thinks we have 57"

Obama was talking about the states and territories voting in the Primaries. Nice try, also.

[tonynoboloney]

Let me see......Ayers, Rezko, Wright, Phleiger, Klonsky, Farrakhan, Joe "freekin" Biden, Acorn, 5 or 6 "lost" years, no experience, socialist, marxist, pro-abortion, 94 "present" votes in the senate, tax increaser, past drug user, buying an eletion with questionable contributions, muslim parent & background, ties to Chicago political machine, etc. And you expect something to come up in the next 2 weeks that people would pay attention to? Maybe gay sex & drugs with Sean Penn, but short of that I don't think its going to make a difference.

[Lala]

Obama suspending his campaign to visit his sick grandmother in Hawaii. Something up?

[jharp]

Obama suspending his campaign to visit his sick grandmother in Hawaii. Something up?

Posted by: Lala | Monday, October 20, 2008 at 10:10 PM

Yeah, Lala, his grandmother is gravely ill.

What do you think? That this for sure proves without a doubt that he is a secret Muslim?

Good God. Go get yourself some help.

[Lala]

What are those 7 territories?

[jharp]

Lala,

I was thinking about your last post and I had to come back as it really pissed me off.

You are a moronic partisan fucking asshole for insinuating anything other than the fact that a grandson who's about to become the President of the United States, who's grandmother had a big part in raising him, would take time out of his campaign to visit her when she is 86 years old and gravely ill.

Fuck you.

[befair]

What IS the matter with you people who think everybody is either far right or far left. I am here, have been, and will be; and I think of myself as a middle of the road person. McCain IMO does not stand a chance, and it is his own fault with the idiocy of the Palin pick and his obvious adoration of her and her "cuteness" dare we say "spunk" yuck!!!!!

Regarding the stupidity of calling Obama a socialist because he will tax the "rich" and "redistribute" to the poor - pray tell, what do you call the welfare system that we have had in this country for so long?? Our tax dollars go to help sick people with no money (medicade), seriously disabled people (social security long term disability), widows and children (again social security when the spouse dies until the child is 18). Just what do you think higher tax brackets do - they bring in more money from those who can afford it, and a teeny bit goes to help humankind. The rest goes for a lot of graft and corruption - federal highway program, for example. Oh, I could go on and on, but you people who call Obama a socialist are just plain nuts.

[ET]

jharp, will you get a fucking job please, you dimwitted asshole. you have no right to be indignant over someone else's post...you are the most insulting bastard on this site.

Eat shit and die, motherfucker.

[Dan Riehl]

lighten up, jh - isn't that the one that's just a "typical white woman"?

[ET]

--Regarding the stupidity of calling Obama a socialist because he will tax the "rich" and "redistribute" to the poor - pray tell, what do you call the welfare system that we have had in this country for so long?? Our tax dollars go to help sick people with no money (medicade), seriously disabled people (social security long term disability), widows and children (again social security when the spouse dies until the child is 18).

TO BEFAIR: I object to the transfer of wealth from successful business owners like myself into the pockets of malingerers like jharp, who still makes less than $250k after 25 years in business for himself. Laziness like his shouldn't be rewarded with the fruits of my hard work.

[befair]

ET - I deeply resent my tax dollars going into a welfare system that has run haywire for years, going into government projects that always run over budget, yeah, all that stuff. However, it has been ever thus - jharp or not - and it does rile one up for sure. If it is true that anyone is in business for themselves and don't make $250K - perhaps it is a business with a very low return on expenses, maybe there is a lot of competition, maybe it is just a mom and pop operation. There are a lot of businesses as you must well know that have huge ongoing expenditures to keep the door open. Judge not unless you know all of the facts.

[Lala]

What is socialism?

SOCIALISM: You have two cows. The government takes one of them and gives it to your neighbor.

SOCIALISM -- BUREAUCRATIC: You have two cows. The government takes them and puts them in a barn with everyone else's cows. They are cared for by ex-chicken farmers. You have to take care of the chickens the government took from the chicken farmers. The government gives you as much milk and eggs as the regulations say you should need.

SOCIALISM -- PURE: You have two cows. The government takes them and puts them in a barn with everyone else's cows. You have to take care of all the cows. The government gives you as much milk as you need.

[jharp]

Dan,

Yes, I'll lighten up but felt a need to get that off my chest.

"Eat shit and die, motherfucker."

Posted by: ET | Monday, October 20, 2008 at 10:51 PM

Posted like a tried and true GOPer. Peace to you. I don't wish for you to die.

"malingerers like jharp, who still makes less than $250k after 25 years in business for himself."

For the 7th or 8th time, ET. You have no idea how much I make. And yet you continue your idiotic assertions.

Is that all you've got?

[befair]

Yes, Lala, yes. What you need now is a nice warm bubble bath, some good music on, candlelight and your bedtime meds. Nighty night. Tomorrow is another day

[BobinStamford]

"Eat shit and die, motherfucker."

The anger of this highly SUCCESSFUL business owner shows the values and pride of the REAL America.

I suggest that bitter folk like you hold on to your guns and bibles - while you can! If not, why not move. I'm sure that there are many nations on this 4,000 year-old planet that can use a SUCCESS like you.

Semper Fi, outraged hero. The SURGE worked!!!

[katablog.com]

I think he should stay off the Wright thing at this point and just move on with Biden's International incident and Joe the Plumber/small businesses.

[jharp]

--Regarding the stupidity of calling Obama a socialist because he will tax the "rich" and "redistribute" to the poor - pray tell, what do you call the welfare system that we have had in this country for so long?? Our tax dollars go to help sick people with no money (medicade), seriously disabled people (social security long term disability), widows and children (again social security when the spouse dies until the child is 18).

TO BEFAIR: I object to the transfer of wealth from successful business owners like myself into the pockets of malingerers like jharp, who still makes less than $250k after 25 years in business for himself. Laziness like his shouldn't be rewarded with the fruits of my hard work.

Posted by: ET | Monday, October 20, 2008 at 10:55 PM

Lot of anger there ET. Sounds to me like a guy who's having trouble making ends meet.

A few words of advice. Don't get excited about Social Security. It maxes out somewhere around 100K so your paying a lowere percentage than the unwashed masses.

And please take this to heart.

Pay your taxes on time! The penalties and interest are much worse than the modest increase Obama is proposing, (35% to 39%)

[Tim]

jharp,
Thats alot of rage, brother. It seems fairly reasonable that Lala (or anyone else) might question why a politician would suspend a campaign as we have been bs'd by Rep & Dem pols in the past. Call it a healthy skepticism of our elected officials. I didn't take Lala to mean any ill will towards Obama's grandmother; just rumor hunting. In fact, I would bet that Lala hopes that the lady is perfectly well and that Obama is secretly dealing with a campaign crisis. I personally hope that his grandmother recovers.
That being said, how does that rage feel? It really does piss you off, huh? Did you feel the same way when Palin had her personal email hacked, when Andrew Sullivan questioned the birth of her child, or when the media steamrolled Joe the Plumber? Or are you just a "moronic partisan fucking asshole"? Just asking.
Thanks,
Tim

[WilliamYork]

Lets see Jamie OHarp:
Joef Biden:
A three letter word.....JOBS.
Hmmm. I think thats Four Joef. Been watching too much TV in 1929 there bucko. Flying that helicopter into Al Quaida gunfire, I mean snowstorms. Still cheating on tests Joey boy? Stealing others' speeches there? Say it aint so Joe. You lying cheating Blue Hen lovin' liberal.

[jharp]

Tim.

You said.

"jharp,
Thats alot of rage, brother."

I assume you mean this and I agree.

"Eat shit and die, motherfucker."

Posted by: ET | Monday, October 20, 2008 at 10:51 PM

You'd almost think the guy was having trouble making ends meet. Seriously, why would he want me to drop dead?

And there is no evidence. None. Nada. Zilch. Zero. That our next President is doing anything but visiting his gravely ill grandmother.

And someone who would posit that it meant something sinister is in desperation.

And pay your taxes on time! ET! It'll save you more than Obama's modest increase.

[ET]

poor jharp, sooo offended by my direct attack on his insult of another poster that he refers to it, what, 3, 4 times? He accuses me of making silly accusations about his business failures with some lame reference to paying taxes on time? wft?

Even the boob weighs in. funny how the purveyors of anger and insults get so riled when served a dose of their own medicine...they can dish it out but they can't take it.

Rest easy jharp. I am bored with you now. You and your pathetic friends can kiss my ass. I wont stoop to your level any more. I have toyed with you long enough. I am starting to feel dirty interacting with you at all. You disgust me.

[jharp]

"He accuses me of making silly accusations about his business failures with some lame reference to paying taxes on time? wft?"

My lame reference to you paying your taxes on time will save you more than the modest increase from 35% to 395 increase promised by Obama.

And your silly accusations about my business failures are just that. Silly. And unfounded and make you look stupid.

And yes, I wish good health to you and your family. I do not wish you to drop dead.

[How to Defeat Barack Obama]

In short, anything can happen and there is still time for "anything" to happen.

OK, but everyone is waiting around for someone else to do something, and some are wasting their time chasing rabbits. That's a clear recipe for failure.

Instead of waiting for something to happen, organize others to go out and ask BHO tough questions to his face. Like Joe the Plumber, but a much tougher question. Get his answer on video and upload it to Youtube.

Major blogs - the ones who claim to be opposed to BHO - should be pushing that plan, but they aren't. Please contact major bloggers and suggest they start pushing that plan.

[seekeronos]

"--- And there is no evidence. None. Nada. Zilch. Zero. That our next President is doing anything but visiting his gravely ill grandmother. ---"

Probably so.

But given the amount of high drama, acrimony, and skulduggery attending this electional...

...it would not be surprising if many people are looking for ulterior designs.

[LOL]

colin powell already told you wingnuts that you were acting like some racists. You really gonna make the last 2 weeks about race? i guess u must have nothing else to talk about...

[jharp]

"--- And there is no evidence. None. Nada. Zilch. Zero. That our next President is doing anything but visiting his gravely ill grandmother. ---"

"Probably so."

I think everyone needs a lesson in logic. What I said was true. There is no evidence. If someone would like to present some evidence by all means go for it. Until then, it is completely unfounded speculation.

"But given the amount of high drama, acrimony, and skulduggery attending this electional...

...it would not be surprising if many people are looking for ulterior designs."

To look is one thing and by all means look. And please share what you might find. Until then it is nothing but a display of stupidity and desperation.

[LOL]

rofl "lets take a look at the battleground states"

according to rcp, mccain would have to win all the "toss-up" states and at least two of the light blue/dark blue states.

just like in 2004 right?

[jharp]

colin powell already told you wingnuts that you were acting like some racists. You really gonna make the last 2 weeks about race? i guess u must have nothing else to talk about...

Posted by: LOL | Tuesday, October 21, 2008 at 12:35 AM

You must have missed it, LOL.

The drug addict Limbaugh already today made it clear than Powell's endorsement was due to race.

Classy group the GOP has become, huh? Good riddance to the whole lot of em.

[seekeronos]

The flip side of the sick "grandmother gambit" could pay off in that all Obama needs to do at this point is lay low... and walk right on into the presidency, and the first truly socialist government this nation has seen, come 20 January.

[seekeronos]

"--- Classy group the GOP has become, huh? Good riddance to the whole lot of em. ---"

It must be reformed very soon, or face being supplanted.

I can only hope that the Constitution Party is up to that task, should the GOP fail to undertake the necessary reforms by 2012.

Somehow, I expect that paleo-conservatism shall have a bit of a revival in the face of the horrific destruction of liberty and exapnsion of hard socialism that is about to be unleashed upon the remains of the Republic... I only pray that the Constitution itself isn't utterly savaged by then.

[jharp]

Yeah, and most likely the truth is his grandmother is very ill.

And after elected Obama can end the socialistic policies of the Bush administration. Nationalizing the banks, fer christsakes, after 2 weeks ago McCain saying the fundamentals of our economy are strong.

[jharp]

"--- Classy group the GOP has become, huh? Good riddance to the whole lot of em. ---"

It must be reformed very soon, or face being supplanted.

Hmmmm. Just what would you call very soon?

Yesterday? I'd say it's too late.

And good luck with the Constitution Party. I promise to take a good long serious look once we are rid of the GOP.

[ET]

Another classy liberal loser. You people must be so proud.

http://www.politickerma.com/jeremyjacobs/1577/kerry-s-answer-boxers-briefs-question-he-goes-commando-and-mccain-would-say-depend

[ET]

The blind faith of the liberal left may prove catastrophic:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/believers_in_obama.html