Obama's Fear: A Great White Hope

As we're near the end of this too-long political season, it's time for a little straight-talk. Susan Estrich opines, the only reason for a potential Obama loss is his race. She's mostly correct. But many don't appreciate exactly how decisive it might be, or why. Why are Obama, McCain and Palin even bothering with Iowa, after all? As I pointed out somewhere in a post that seems like an age ago, Iowa is Blue - but 98% white.

There is only one reason the polls could be this wrong. There is only one reason a contest that is not even close, that is somewhere between clobbered and landslide, could wind up with the other guy on top. Every pollster in America is not incompetent. Every pollster in America is not failing in precisely the same way when it comes to pulling a sample, screening for voters and assigning weights to the various groups.

Beyond the emotion around it, or labeling it as racism, it's actually the numbers beneath it that make it such a pivotal point. Round up the 77% or so of America that's white to 80% and then do the Math. Every poll we see is weighted based upon projected voter turn out. Yes, the young may or may not vote in greater numbers than ever before. Blacks no doubt will. But for every four up ticks in percentage points among those groups it only takes a one percent up tick in what I'll call the "silent white majority" to cancel it out. As little as a 2-3% up tick in that larger group would immediately turn all of the pollster's projections on their head.

The above is an item that no pollster or media outlet can predict. It isn't anything that's been experienced before, as there has never been a minority at the head of a National ticket. And anyone who says it may not be decisive is simply kidding themselves.

It may. It may not. But until November 4th we simply won't know. Estrich suggests it could only be that people are lying to pollsters. I disagree. While there may be some truth to that, the turn out numbers will drive this race in the end.

Does McCain still have a shot? Yes he does. And fortunately or unfortunately, depending upon your point of view, that hope is white and the numbers could turn out to be great.

What that would mean about, or could do to America is another question entirely.

Comments

[mark l.]

I would advise those who support mccain, that the more they hear the press try and tell them this election is over, the more encouragement they must take from those reports.

If obama is relying on youth, single mothers, and minorities the more they hear their vote isn't needed, the less inclined they will be to vote.

mccain landslide.

[SacTownMan]

Oh my god if those whities don't elect Xerxes it is nothing short of RACISM.

Good old Moonbat Talking Point #5

Most of the regulars may recall the list from earlier this summer!

"So lets make it easier for them and just get the "top 10" list going now shall we:
1. McCain = "Bush 3".
2. McCain wants to keep us in Iraq for "100 years".
3. McCain is too old!
4. Bush lied, troops died.
5. If you don't vote for Barry you're a racist!
6. Democrats are behind the troops. (That's why they continue to try and cut Iraq funding!)
7. Barry will "unite" the country. (As long as you're not one of those 18 million racist's that didn't vote for him or a Republican)
8. We are in a recession.
9. Barry's associations for the past twenty years with various extremists have nothing to do with him.
10.Here's my personal favorite - "That was taken out of context""

[mark l.]

watching palin chide obama for raising taxes in the heart of a recession.

it's econ 101, and she is correct about every reasonable analysis providing for the reasoning.

obama is stuck in a nose dive on jacking taxes, and it's too late to pull up.

given that he has gone from 250k, to 200k, to 150k in the pst month, it would appear he is accelerating his plane into the ground.

[katablog.com]

Bull Pucky! It's Obama's own mouth that is the change in the polls you selfish white pig. Now guppy up some more tax money because it's the patriotic thing to do so we can spread the wealth around

[mark l.]

I can't wait for flag(-burning) day under his admin...

the old vote is going to turn on him, hard.

if for no other reason than to vote against the young voters.

[Kristen]

I left this comment at Estrich's article:

"What else could it possibly be?" Good grief. Enough, please with the racism. I'll tell you what else it could be. It's called intentionally LYING to SCREW with the media! I know that I am 100% fed up and sick and tired of the role polling has played in the media, especially in last 3 presidential elections. I'm not alone in this. I mean, come on.

I think there's something seriously wrong with someone's analysis skills when they can only see one possible conclusion for something that is so complicated on many different levels.

I can tell you honestly that there is not a racist bone in my body and yet if I got a poll call I would intentionally BS the pollster TO THE MAX just to jerk around the results. I think the kind of non-stop election polling we've been seeing this year has gone beyond ridiculous. It's time candidates and especially our representatives stop relying on the polls to make every decision for them.

I really hate these "it's got to be racism" pieces. Just lazy thinkers.

[Joe]

"My friends Ken Follett and Susan Cheever are extremely worried. Naomi Wolf calls me every day. Yesterday, Jane Fonda sent me an email to tell me that she cried all night and can't cure her ailing back for all the stress that has reduces her to a bundle of nerves."

"My back is also suffering from spasms, so much so that I had to see an acupuncturist and get prescriptions for Valium."

"After having stolen the last two elections, the Republican Mafia…"

"If Obama loses it will spark the second American Civil War. Blood will run in the streets, believe me. And it's not a coincidence that President Bush recalled soldiers from Iraq for Dick Cheney to lead against American citizens in the streets."

"Bush has transformed America into a police state, from torture to the imprisonment of reporters, to the Patriot Act.

Erica Jong

[BD57]

And those who vote for Obama because he's half-black are .... what?

[SacTownMan]

"After returning briefly I've been quickly reminded why I departed in the first place."

Hey "Old Geezer" enjoy the rest of your RWV retirement.

Hey can you take that other RWV retiree Harpo with you.

He comes back like Freddy Krueger, you know a little more pissed off each time he returns!

Heck while your at it maybe you could take all the new Astroturfers with you?

Their combined efforts have completly convinced me to just give up and skip voting next week.

And Dan keep up the good work!

The trolls have been buzzing around here likes flies on shit the past few weeks, you must be doing something right!

[Dan Riehl]

"are .... what?"

Racist. But you shouldn't misinterpret my post. I'm not suggesting everyone who votes for McCain is voting due to racism. I am only speaking to a group of people who aren't usually politically involved. The FACT is - had McCain run a good campaign, he wouldn't need a bump at the end to win. He has waged, arguably, the worst campaign in the history of modern Presidential politics.

Do't shoot the messenger.

[SacTownMan]

"And those who vote for Obama because he's half-black are .... what?"

Half-Ro-Americans?

[Dan Riehl]

Yeah, Sac I checked the IP - a total of two comments both under that name. Some old friend that was. I deleted it for that reason.

[SacTownMan]

Ah a little Sock Puppetry at work.

Now that would be a first for our troll friends wouldn't it?

Was it Hank Greenwald again?

[mark l.]

I get a sick feeling in my stomach when I think of a guy like Bill Ayers spending a night or two at the WH, when he sought to blow up govt buildings in his terrorist days.

Given the revelation that he dedicated a book to the guy who killed rfk, I just want rhe older to imagine him posing next to kennedy's portrait, with his thumb-index finger mock gun.

I figure he'd just love to have a picture of that, hanging at home.

a guy who calls himself a democrat would never dedicate a book to sirhan sirhan, even the craziest democrat.

this guy is insane and he has been with obama for years. great...

[moldy]

"Does McCain still have a shot? Yes he does. And fortunately or unfortunately, depending upon your point of view, that hope is white and the numbers could turn out to be great.

What that would mean about, or could do to America is another question entirely."

True enough. Good post - interesting point about Iowa. It will be interesting to see if the Bradley effect still exists.

[Jake]

" The FACT is - had McCain run a good campaign, he wouldn't need a bump at the end to win. "

The FACT that he's within points of an uber sociopath with billions to spend and an audience of pseudo-inner-guilt-besotted liberals trolling behind him and his own personal MSM cheerleading organization should be something worth applauding- not decrying as the misguided efforts of a doddering old man. Why not give the guy some credit?

[WBestPresidentEver]

THIS JUST IN ! COULD IT BE ??

ZOGBY: MCCAIN MOVES INTO LEAD 48-47 IN ONE DAY POLLING
http://www.drudgereport.com/
ZOGBY SATURDAY: McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday poll. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...

I'm a Maverick,
you're a Maverick,
wouldn't you like to be a Maverick too ?

VOTE : November 4th !
For the Mavericks !
McCain/Palin

[Mark]

Estrich = 'Ostrich.' We are witnessing, and potentially involved in, 'The Fall of the American Republic.' A vote for 'Obamanation' is a vote for the decline of our country. A vote for McCain is a vote for common sense and for the country.

[mark l.]

"A vote for McCain is a vote for common sense and for the country."
maybe for some.
lesser of two evils in my book. my vote stems from a desire for self preservation, and obama will get us killed.

[mark l.]

the rich irony of mccain running a blase campaign is that democrats are going to lose based on fear.

nothing mccain did to incite it, it was entirely the democrat candidate's fault.

if the geezer pulls this off, I may have to rethink the existence of god.

[katablog.com]

that he dedicated a book to the guy who killed rfk Sorry, you are confusing Barack Obama's friends. That one was Rashid Khalidi

[Mark Turner]

It would not surprise me at all if McCain won -- and if Obama wins, it won't be a landslide, either in popular vote or electoral vote count.

Although McCain's campaign has stumbled a bit, I don't consider it a bad one over all -- the worst GOP campaign I've seen for the presidency was Dole vs. Clinton in 1996. Dole's only issue was that Clinton was too liberal, liberal, liberal. McCain's is far better than that. Obama has waged a much more articulate and coherently structured campaign, but that doesn't mean he is more correct or better suited to the presidency (the guy has no track record of leadership and either national or state level, no foreign policy experience, no demonstrated record of bipartisanship, no demonstrated ability to handle national crises, and has wildly misstated his own background and record of achievements.

[SacTownMan]

"that he dedicated a book to the guy who killed rfk Sorry, you are confusing Barack Obama's friends. That one was Rashid Khalidi"

The dedication to Sirhan is from the Weather Underground manifesto "Prarie Fire" from "Some guy who lives in my neighborhood"

But it's easy to confuse the two "good" friends of Xerxes

From Zombie;

http://www.zombietime.com/prairie_fire/

"For the record, and just to be complete, here are links documenting some of Obama's many connections to William Ayers:

• Ayers and Obama worked together for years on a school reform program called the Chicago Annenberg Challenge.
• Ayers and Obama also served together on the board of the Woods Fund of Chicago, a separate charity organization.
• Obama had his political coming-out party in William Ayers' home.
• Ayers mentions Obama by name in a book he wrote in 1997, and mentions that the two are very close neighbors.
• Obama gave a short glowing review of that same Ayers book for the Chicago Tribune.
• Obama and Ayers were both presenters together on a panel about juvenile justice (organized by Michelle Obama).
• Both Obama and Ayers were close friends with the same person, Rashid Kalidi.
• There are also several unverified rumors swirling around that have not been documented: That Ayers may have helped to write part (or all) of Obama's autobiography; that Obama and Ayers shared an office space together for three years, on the same floor of the same building in Chicago; and that Ayers and Obama may have known each other as far back as 1981. "

[epobirs]

It's amazing how some people get established in the commentariat and never go away. Why does anyone give a damn what Estrich thinks anymore? She wore out any illusion of competence long, long ago. Even worse, she embarrassed herself by doing a book cover photo in a 'little black dress' intended to mock Ann Coulter but only succeeded in making it obvious how thin Coulter is and how non-thin Estrich is. Don't try to peddle goods that aren't yours, honey.

Here she is, warbling about the polls. Has it never sunk in how wildly wrong those polls have been in the past? All too often they're structured so as force the desired answer, so what value have they other than propaganda? Certainly none for anyone trying to actually judge the mood of the electorate.

If race decides this election, it will be because Obama's side wielded it as a weapon and enough have finally gotten fed up with being manipulated over the issue. Susie, it is a truly color-blind America that can see past race and understand what a truly awful candidate Obama is. A genuinely deserving post-racial candidate would go through the entire campaign without the slightest reference to race, ardently staying focused on the issues no matter came from the opposition. That isn't the case here. Obama has made race greivance mongering part of his life by choice. Jesse Jackson Sr. hates Obama not for ending the race hustling game but rather for stealing the crown and forcing Jackson to accept his irrelevancy.

[joeb]

Susan estrogen is wrong as usual. It is not race so much as experience that will be the deciding factor. And John McCain has vastly more experience. Obama is a smooth talking con man like Bill Clinton.

[jjshaka]

If Barry had just been a Bill Clinton moderate-left Democrat I think he wins fairly easily.
However when you start dropping words like "transforming America" a lot of blue-collar democrats get more than a little concerned.
They like this country generally and this starts to look like socialistic ranting that can come back to bite them personally.
I think Mccain is going to win because Obama will be judged by non-blacks to be too dangerous an agenda to try.
Any "ism" is based ultimately on self interest.