McCain Shouldn't Attack Too Much Tonight

While the media may be playing it up as Wrestle-mania 3, a review of state and national polls suggests attacking is not what McCain actually needs to accomplish tonight. For all the Obama hype and his outspending McCain 3-1 on ads, Obama continues to be unable to firmly close the sale.

With voters more concerned about the economy than the inside politics fights between the candidates, McCain needs to communicate that he gets it, is prepared to deal with the economy and has a solid plan.

By the time you factor in leaners and undecideds, this election remains up for grabs. And one has to wonder if Obama isn't beginning to be seen as trying a bit too hard given his exposure.

Whatever the reason, doubts about Obama continue to exist. McCain needs to make sure that's not the case for his own candidacy with voters after tonight. He can continue to work around the edges attacking Obama in ads and on the stump.

But that will only be effective if McCain offers voters a safe place for them to go with their vote.

I'd be careful about scoring this like a prize fight tonight. More likely the most effective presentation and ultimate winner will be the individual who offers a straight-forward message on Economy 101.

If McCain can do that, any attacks on Obama going forward will only prove to be all that more effective. As of now, the ones that have been launched have hit their mark. But they alone won't win McCain the Presidency. And it isn't what most Americans concerned over the economy are going to want to take away from the debate.

Comments

[Soulblighter]

"And one has to wonder if Obama isn't beginning to be seen as trying a bit too hard given his exposure."

Funny, I could have sworn that the #1 justification for the stolen election in 2000 was that "Bush wanted it more than Gore did." What changed between then and now to make it so that "trying a bit too hard" to win the world's most important election is a bad thing?

Are his volunteers trying too hard as well? Really, I think the nail in the coffin is going to be when too many people vote for him. You just can't trust true believers like that.

[chris]

Hey, wait a minute. This post makes complete sense? What the hell is going on here?

[Ed]

Dan

Obama can't close the sale??? Put down your bong and take a look at ANY poll...

[joeb]

This is for chris and jharp and boob in stamford and spartan112 and jaime and WPE and all the other pie in the sky crowd. Remember prosperity is just around the corner.
Happy Days Are Here Again
So long sad times
Go long bad times
We are rid of you at last
Howdy gay times
Cloudy gray times
You are now a thing of the past

Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So lets sing a song of cheer again
Happy days are here again

Altogether shout it now
Theres no one
Who can doubt it now
So lets tell the world about it now
Happy days are here again

Your cares and troubles are gone
Therell be no more from now on
From now on...

Happy days are here again
The skies above are here again
So, lets sing a song of cheer again
Happy times
Happy nights
Happy days
Are here again!

[mary]

dan, you should email the article to the campaign.

[mary]

dan is correct, you guys jsut don't know how to read the polls.

[tim maguire]

"Whatever the reason, doubts about Obama continue to exist." Yeah, whatever the reason might be...

The public always says they don't want negative campaining, and then they vote for the guy that does it. That's just the way it is. Here and in so many other places, what people say they want and what they actually want are two different things.

I want McCain to go after Obama on this stuff, but it can't just be jibes and snark. He has to explain why it matters that Obama is surrounded by so many corrupt hard left people. That shouldn't be too hard, I don't see why it would take more than a few sentences and a few seconds, but it has to be done.

[Steve]

Great post and great site you have!

Would you like a Link Exchange with our new blog COMMON CENTS where we blog about the issues of the day?

http://www.commoncts.blogspot.com

[mary]

If I have heard it once I've heard it a hundred times today from the MSM.. "McCain is certainly under a lot of pressure, he has to do something tonight, (insert name) or I'm afraid the race is over".

Not sure that I would want to have that kind of pressure being advertised all over the media especially when they say "all Senator Obama has to do is not make a mistake."

[hdtv]

I think they will both offer a straight forward message on the economy. Certain details will appeal to certain individuals. The decider will be how each connects to individual tax payers. I think Obama has already done this and it's up to McCain to make his case. Obama was clever in using a $250k figure. It encompasses just about everybody and it's a real number rather than some vague cutoff mark or complicated math. $250k accounts for geographical differences and includes most (if not all) middle class in the US. It's an easy choice for a voter because there is one question: "Do I make less than $250k?"

Overall, I think it will be a draw regarding economy. There will be some differences, but no clear winner. Those who like McCain will think he won, those who like Obama will think he won. If McCain starts throwing stones, he will lose. If Obama is successful in painting McCain as a Bush do-over or sidekick, McCain will lose.

[jharp]

"More likely the most effective presentation and ultimate winner will be the individual who offers a straight-forward message on Economy 101."

I hope you are right and I believe you are.

Since McCain has previously admitted he is weak on the economy and has proven himself correct over the past few weeks I am "all in" for another McCain drubbing tonight.

I truly have not enjoyed politics ever in my life as much as the past few weeks.

[Fred Beloit]

"I truly have not enjoyed politics ever in my life as much as the past few weeks."
But, Harpo, you are going to be a sad wiener the day after the election. Enjoy your elation while you can. Most Americans who vote don't like liberals and will not vote for one to be President.

[Lala]

hot stuff

http://www.debbieschlussel.com/archives/2008/10/magic_of_google.html#

October 15, 2008
Magic of Google 2001 Shows Obama May Have Been Involved in Muslim Organizing

Printer Friendly

By Debbie Schlussel

As you may know, Google is celebrating its tenth anniversary and is allowing people to search Google as it was in 2001, enabling you to get all the results available back then. (They're not making use of 1998 results available because 2001 is the earliest good version available, they say.) It's available at Google.com/search2001.html until the end of the month. It's an interesting exercise in politics and pop culture, since, back then, names like "Brangelina" don't refer to two the union of two vapid left-wing celeb-hypocrites.

Reader "CaliforniaScre

[jharp]

But, Harpo, you are going to be a sad wiener the day after the election. Enjoy your elation while you can. Most Americans who vote don't like liberals and will not vote for one to be President.

Posted by: Fred Beloit | Wednesday, October 15, 2008 at 01:55 PM

Hi Fred,

Have you been hitting the bong today?

Are you even remotely aware of the polling data? And I suppose you think McCain has Michigan locked up? Pennsylvania? Virgina? Yes, Virginia!

I think we're looking at a landslide. And take it for what it's worth but McCain is a 4 to 1 on intrade.com. That's bet one to win four! Obama... ... bet 4 to win one.

But as McCain has stated "we have them right where we want them". Pretty funny stuff.

[jharp]

Fred,

Looks like McCain has Wisconsin locked up too, according to wingnut logic.

McCain Pulling Ads in Wisconsin?

The Republican National Committee "hasn't booked ads for the next week in Wisconsin TV markets after running a series of spots attacking Barack Obama and congressional Dems," according to WisPolitics.com.

"The decision comes amid speculation on whether Republicans may pull back in Wisconsin after several polls in the past week showed Obama up over John McCain by double digits."

[joeb]

I would not rely too heavily on any polls. Many McCain supporters would not answer. They are just waiting to answer the only important poll which is the real one on Nov. 4th. After McCain wins the Media folks will go into a depression followed by a frenzy of reporting on "How racist is America?" Here is a question for you jharp and chris. How many people are there do you think that would not only not vote for a black candidate but would not tell a pollster how they intend to vote? You can't know that until after Nov. 4th. Until then you better sweat it big time.

[Fred Beloit]

Harpo: " And take it for what it's worth but McCain is a 4 to 1 on intrade.com."

How many thousands have you bet so far, Harpo?

[mary]

The $250 number lets all the two income families in big citis all over the country realize that they are going to have to get another job to pay their taxes.

[jharp]

"How many people are there do you think that would not only not vote for a black candidate?"

I am sure there are plenty who would not vote for a black candidate. The proof is that McCain is ahead in the most bigoted, racist, uneducated states in the country.

"but would not tell a pollster how they intend to vote?"

I don't think any more that lie to pollsters in past elections. I don't know of one. And I can't see any reason why someone would do so since it actually hurts McCain.

"You can't know that until after Nov. 4th. Until then you better sweat it big time."

No sweat coming from me. Have you seen the polls? It would be an unprecedented comeback. As in "has never happened".

[jharp]

How many thousands have you bet so far, Harpo?

Posted by: Fred Beloit | Wednesday, October 15, 2008 at 02:36 PM

None. Used to gamble some but in my old age don't much care for it. If I'd win a thousand it wouldn't excite me much and if I lost a thousand I'd be pissed.

And isn't it illegal anyways?

[joeb]

The polls in this election could be off as much as 10 per cent. Read this chris. You don't have a lock on anything just yet.
http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003838126&imw=Y
Again I say don't put too much faith in any polls.

[hdtv]

"The $250 number lets all the two income families in big citis all over the country realize that they are going to have to get another job to pay their taxes."

Not true because only 2.5% of all families in the US earn over $250k. In no way can "all the two income families in big citis" make more than $250k. The number really does include most demographics which was the point.

[Fran]

Mc Cain cant win with this playing field. Even J Jackson's Israel comments are being ignored.

I really believe Mc has to play the "we dont know his stand" card: on issues, on Israel, on Acorn, et al.

His present votes avoided taking a stand. No proof except empty words on Israel
His liberal record shows where he is headed.

Sow seeds of doubt...thats all thats left

[mary]

Nope, you are wrong. To live in a big city nowadays you need, if you have a couple of kids to make more than $250.

And, are you aware that this number just kills all the small business owners.

I hope getting his alleged "middle class" is worth it as he will probably lose everyone else, except of course, the poor who make out like bandits literally, they make money on all the deals.

[hdtv]

No, not wrong. The Census Bureau does in fact state that only 2.5% of familes in the US make over $250k.

[IslamoLlama]

"-- Not true because only 2.5% of all families in the US earn over $250k. In no way can "all the two income families in big citis" make more than $250k. The number really does include most demographics which was the point. --"

Not to mention... who the hell is making a quarter million a year and working a second job just to pay taxes. The tax bracket increases only affect the dollars you earn above the cap. I'm in the 25% tax bracket range - like the vast majority of Americans - and I don't pay a penny on the first $9k I make. Learn your tax code. If you make $1 bil / year, the first $75k still only costs you as much in taxes as everyone else making over $75k.

Every time I hear Republicans whine and cry about how much their tax burden is, I can't help but assume they've never filled out a 1040 form in their entire lives.

"-- Nope, you are wrong. To live in a big city nowadays you need, if you have a couple of kids to make more than $250. --"

What a crock of bull. I've got family all over New York and New Jersey. They get by just fine on incomes below $100k.

[IslamoLlama]

*the first $75k still only costs you as much in taxes as everyone else making exactly $75k.

[JustOneMan]

Guess who wondered away from the assisted living facility? Obvously he needed a diaper change..

Rep. John Murtha says his home base of western Pennsylvania is racist and that could reduce Barack Obama's victory margin in the state by 4 percentage points.

So its official if you dont vote for Barry you must be a racist...

[IslamoLlama]

"-- His present votes avoided taking a stand. No proof except empty words on Israel --"

You can't vote "Present" in the US Senate. It's either "Yes" or "No". Choosing not to vote is exactly the same as voting "No" because bills need a majority - 50 + the VP - to pass.

Christ on a cracker, go take a course in civics. You embarrass yourself.

[Spartan112]

Regardless of what the polls say, McCain and his camp are playing defense in states they never thought they'd have the slightest worry in whereas the only state McCain has a prayer of turning red from blue is NH and that's a long shot. You are correct, the national polls don't mean too much but the polls in the remaining battlegrounds are all leaning towards Obama.

[BobinStamford]

The Dow dropped 730 today. Say goodbye to the decrepit 'maverick' and his bimbo sidekick.

[Fran]

In the end, Mr. Obama chose neither to vote for nor against the bill. He voted “present,” effectively sidestepping the issue, an option he invoked nearly 130 times as a state senator

[Lala]

Choosing not to vote is waffling and Obama waffles a lot.

http://projects.washingtonpost.com/congress/members/o000167/votes/

[mary]

The people who make more than $250 are killed in taxes. Warren Buffet pays 15% and your SOB candidate wants to make sure Warren continues paying his 15% and the people over $250 pay an enormous amount of taxes.

While he increases welfare.

I am not a republican and you can quote the census bureau all you want. People making $250. in the nation's big cities are having a hard time.

[mary]

If a teacher and a cop put their salaries together and the teacher tutors and the cop works security at a club, they make over $250. and they need to cause they pay huge taxes and if they have kids it is expensive.

[mary]

"What a crock of bull. I've got family all over New York and New Jersey. They get by just fine on incomes below $100k."

Try living in the City of New York on that amount of money. A friend just moved there and she is making a little under a hundred grand and she is single and she is having a tough time making ends meet.

[seekeronos]

"--- The Dow dropped 730 today. Say goodbye to the... ---"

Perfect timing for the debate, don'tcha think?

"--- I would not rely too heavily on any polls. Many McCain supporters would not answer. They are just waiting to answer the only important poll which is the real one on Nov. 4th. ---"

I do admire your stalwart support of McCain, joeb... but I felt the same way about Fred! during his primary campaign - until he came in 4th in Iowa, dead last in NH, and hardly registered as anything more than a successful stalking horse attempt that pulled votes away from Huckabee, effectively handing SC to McCain on a platter.

Until the SC primaries, I thought Fred! had a decent chance, and that the polls were just doing what polls and statisticians have done throughout their history:

"Figures lie... and liars figure".

So y'all pardon me if I am not very hopeful in the results outshining the polls (even if the
McCainites are hanging up en mass on any robo-calls from Rasmussen).

[BobinStamford]

So why is NYC voting so overwhelmingly for Obama?

[mary]

Bobin Stamford, Doesn't NYC vote on Nov. 4? They don't have early voting, do they?

[mary]

It was nice to watch the Canadian elections, calm and efficient. They did have access to "the polls" however, it wasn't the holy grail that it is here in the states. They should forbid exit polls and they should forbid any speaking about polls by the media until the entire nation has voted in deference to those who are still voting when they (the media) decide they want to "call" the election.

[jaime]

"A friend just moved there and she is making a little under a hundred grand and she is single and she is having a tough time making ends meet."

You can live really well in New York for $100K a year if you know what the hell you're doing.

Some schmo off the bus thinking their gonna live on Park Avenue for that amount of money is sadly mistaken.

[seekeronos]

"--- Not to mention... who the hell is making a quarter million a year and working a second job just to pay taxes. ---"

Well... most folks I know are dual-income parents making around $200k ~ $300k. Most of these folks are small business owners or professionals (doctors, lawyers, CPAs, IT workers, etc.)

Their particulars differ widely: one of my co-workers makes almost 200K as a Database Admin, and he is actually quite fearful of what the Dems will to to his pay: you see, he is a contractor and pays for his own healthcare on the market, and is trying to save money for his two young sons' college, and paying down his own student loan debt, on top of keeping on top of his $550K mortgage which he bought a house with at the peak of the housing bubble.

Another couple I know pull in about 175ish (my best guess, as I really don't pry into my neighbour's finances) between the both of them, and yet they live fairly comfortably: modest house, slightly used cars (very good shape and mileage, nothing extravagant) and are also saving for their kids' college whilst paying off his law school degree and her commercial art school degree.

Yet another friend of the family pulls in nearly $300K as a doctor, and lives in Manhattan UWS in a $1.2M co-op that he claims to have second thoughts on, but is unwilling to unload at a loss, as he sees real estate values for the City recovering within the next few years.

Yet for all these folks I know, NY property taxes are a real beast... and I don't relish seeing mine go up year after year either.

But Obama's tax programme - targeted to low income up to his vision of "middle America" completely ignores cost of living issues in the major coastal markets.

If we must tax excessively and progressively... then don't squeeze the middle classes in the cities or in the town and country. Let the mega-rich with incomes over $10M bear that burden... and BETTER STILL: cut spending.

Cut spending.

Cut spending.

And in case y'all missed my point:

Cut spending.

[moldy]

Hi Mary,

Exit polls are polls taken after people leave the voting booth. In Canada, the issue was not exit polls. The problem was that actual results - not exit polls - from the East were broadcast to those in the West before they had voted. There is a law that forbids this in fear it may sway voters in the West. However, with internet and modern communication, this is really not possible. So people in Canada are asking/suggesting that no results be released by Elections Canada until everyone in the country has voted. I think it is a good idea for any country with multiple time zones. Although it makes for boring election coverage ...

[Spartan112]

Mary, Mary, why ya buggin'...

Here's the median family income in NYC 53k, a far cry from your 250k.

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/bplive/2008/snapshots/PL3651000.html

[Philip McDaniel]

If the Democrats are so eager to "spread the wealth" why don't the ones in congress take a pay cut? The rest of them can ante up out of their collective pockets; that way small business owners (almost all of whom are Republicans) can continue doing business and employing people.

[Lala]

Mary,
You know that median incomes mean nothing. In New York there are large amounts of people living in public housing and another large amount living in subsidized housing i.e., Mitchell Lama or Section 8. Almost 1 million people are on welfare. Lots more are on food stamps and Medicaid.

My two friends have a tiny apartment in Greenpoint, Brooklyn for the bargain price of $1950.00 plus heat and electric which are both very expensive.

[jharp]

John McCain this week.

"we have them just where we want them"

The Republican National Committee announced it is halting presidential ads in Wisconsin and Maine. Instead opting to spend what little they have left in usually Republican states where GOP nominee John McCain shows signs of faltering.

Hello, Fred?

Does this mean McCain has sewed up Wisconsin and Maine?

I honestly wonder whether I am living in bizzarro world when I read some of the ludicrous claims made by the GOP apologists.

[Lala]

Mary,

But, if you wanted to compare median incomes by neighborhood this would be more realistic

New York City has a high degree of income disparity. In 2005 the median household income in the wealthiest census tract was reported to be $188,697, while in the poorest it was $9,320.[14] The disparity is driven by wage growth in high income brackets, while wages have stagnated for middle and lower income brackets. In 2006 the average weekly wage in Manhattan was $1,453, the highest and fastest growing among the largest counties in the United States.[15] The borough is also experiencing a "baby boom" among the wealthy that is unique among U.S. cities. Since 2000, the number of children under age 5 living in Manhattan has grown by more than 32%.[16]

[mary]

I am learning an awful lot from my friend. In her building where she is one of 8 single girls living in one 4 bedroom space (she found it on craig's list) there are a lot of families. She is saying she is going to be really worried if she falls in love with a guy in New York and decides to stay. The families are telling her that they want to move out of the city but, they can't afford to move and buy a new house, so they stay. One family with three kids has a 1 bedroom in her building and they have turned their dining room into a bedroom. Apparently, this is quite common in Manhattan.

[mary]

What's up with Carl Cameron? He just said to shep smith that most people thought that John McCain was too angry in the last two debates. What? Are these the people who got their talking points from BO's campaign, the weird DA or Plouffe? I mean did they see the debate? Half of everyone who watched fell asleep for the second debate and the first debate was a let down when you came down form the adrenalin rush created by the expectations that never materialized.