How Obama Could Still Lose

With a full two-weeks to go and national polls hovering around 5 points, it's fair to speculate as to whether or not Obama can lose at this point. Believe me, he can. And chinks in the armor like this certainly don't help.

What Obama and his people know is that his armor is extremely thin. He doesn't have some long record of accomplishment, or history with the American people to fall back on. His image is razor thin and he's trying to run out the clock without being exposed. There's the fame element at work, too. When the public falls in that kind of love, it's adolescent, in a sense. It's based on a feeling, not a long history of facts, or experience.

If the bubble around an individual enjoying such a thing gets seriously pricked, the air can come out pretty damned quick. So while McCain has to continue to offer a positive vision for the economy, he also needs to keep needling Obama as much as he can. You never can predict what hit might begin to seriously deflate his image.

That's not overly comforting perhaps, but it is a good reason to not give up hope with two weeks to go.

So Biden expects a test of the kind Kennedy faced after his disastrous meeting with Khrushchev in Vienna in June, 1961, less than five months into Kennedy’s presidency. Biden’s presumably thinking of the Soviet-backed construction of the Berlin Wall a couple of months later. Kennedy did nothing, and was criticized for his weakness back home.

So--leaving aside the merits of what Kennedy did or didn’t do in 1961--Biden is forecasting that Obama will have what seems to be a weak response to a provocation from, say, Iran or Russia, and he’s urging the liberals of Seattle and elsewhere to stand with Obama against the expected domestic criticism.

In other words, Biden is forecasting inaction by Obama in the face of testing by a dictator. I suspect he’s right in this forecast. McCain might want to clarify this point. It’s not just that Obama’s own running mate expects an international crisis early in his presidency. It’s not just that Obama has a weak foreign policy record. It’s that Biden himself expects what will appear to be a weak response from Obama to testing by a dictator.

Comments

[mark l.]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/generic_vote.html

generic poll averages for 2004-

democrats +11.2%.

actual results?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_election,_2004

republicans +7.7%

the gap between the press reports and real results was almost 20 pts.

noteworthy: current generic average is dems +8, 3pts behind their 04 advantage. A byproduct of the an inaccurate congrssional advantage is playing itself out in the weighting of current polls.

[jaime]

Joe Biden's quote through the scumbag Republican filter:

It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking.... Watch, we’re gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy....

What Biden ACTUALLY said:

Mark my words, within the next -- first six months of this administration, if we win, they're going to -- we're going to face a major international challenge, 'cause they're going to want to test him, just like they did John Kennedy, they're going to want to test him, and they're going to find out this guy's got steel in his spine.

"The guy's got steel in his spine"

That magically left out of ALL right wing reporting. Why? Because Dan Riehl's knows by and large that his Republican readers are stupid and he can serve them shit and tell them it's Prime Rib.

"THE GUY'S GOT STEEL IN HIS SPINE"

Why don't any of you people ask why Dan Riehl is purposefully leaving out quotes?

[chris]

That's right, chin up!

To get a sense of how desperate things are, log-cabin cheerleader Matt Drudge has announced the result of the Scholastic Kids poll and Obama only won by 2%. Matt further pointed out that Kerry got 57% in 2004.

Wow, things are tightening!

[jaime]

"current generic average is dems +8, 3pts behind their 04 advantage. A byproduct of the an inaccurate congrssional advantage is playing itself out in the weighting of current polls."

You are purposefully comparing apples and oranges. Polling on a district by district basis shows that Republicans are going to get destroyed in two weeks.

[mark l.]

that nickelodeon poll is heavily skewed towards the 30-49 age range(parents of kids watching nick).

If mccain is almost even in that range, he would would just have to rely on the support of those over 50, providing a counterbalance to those under 30.

mission accomplished.

[mark l.]

"You are purposefully comparing apples and oranges."

actually generic vote is used to determine weighting of party affilation in current polls, not district by district.

your 'district by district' theory is actually apples and oranges.

[chris]

Um, the point is the complete desperation of even posting the result of a nickelodeon poll. But thanks for the breakdown there, Zogby!

[mary]

The polls are really confusing.

What concerns me is that BO hasn't given us all his health information. I'm not so sure I am comfortable with my president having a "spine of steel", what if he get hit with lightening?

[mark l.]

funny that you would bring up Zogby, versus a poll of children...

weekly reader poll has predicted the past 12 of 13 elections.

didn't zogby having kerry winning with 300+ evs in 04?

[chris]

"What concerns me is that BO hasn't given us all his health information."

The decrepit old man partial access for 3 hours on a friday afternoon. I'd worry more about the guy who's at death's door.

[jaime]

Don't worry Chris, Sarah Palin is keeping an eagle eye on Russia from her front porch, also.

[hdtv]

"chinks in armor"

That's not a chink. I really don't think a spun Biden comment is going to be a game changer.

Besides, you can't ignore efforts by Obama. If Obama sits back and does nothing against criticism and spin and doesn't spend any money or have any rallies, then sure its possible. It's also highly unlikely. The reality is probably that nobody is listening at this point.

[chris]

Chinks in the armor?

There goes the asian vote!

[mary]

From dealbreaker, those guys over there can be very funny:

"Posted by guest, Oct 21, 2008 3:50PM

@67 Totally agree with you, I'm sick of both of those populist idiots and their idiotic followers. Just because these people earned Cs in community college Econ101 does not mean they are qualified to voice any opinion. We should return to some sort of feudal aristocracy.

Posted by guest, Oct 21, 2008 4:21PM"

Oh, so #72, you must be voting for Obama then?

[Jim Treacher]

What jaime is saying is that Biden guaranteed we're going to be attacked if Obama is elected, but it's okay because he's a tough guy. Yeah, that's much better.

[Jim Treacher]

Polling on a district by district basis shows that Republicans are going to get destroyed in two weeks.

Then what are you worried about?

Don't worry Chris, Sarah Palin is keeping an eagle eye on Russia from her front porch, also.

That comment is a good 2-letter word: j-o-b.

[mary]

I thought the BO campaign made an enormous amount of campaign money this month ostensibly from "the little people on the internet" so how come they are charging for this?:

"Obama campaign selling Chicago election night coverage packages to news outlets
By
Lynn Sweet
on October 21, 2008 11:07 AM
http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2008/10/obama_campaign_selling_chicago.html

What do they need all this money for?

[Anna]

Well, the Socialist Wealth Spreader will be the first president ever elected by Mickey Mouse and Popeye. That's why all the early voting because this is politics Chicago style. Vote early and vote ofter.

Daley, Sr., was the only politician who could turn out the voters and get them to vote alphabetically! Amazing, really. I expect nothing less from Obama. After all, he should get his $800K worth from ACORN and the rest of the liberal commie vote fraud orgs he has backed with our tax money.