Gallup Has It At 4 Points

While Gallup is headlining the Obama by 7 number, you'll find this if you read the poll:

Obama's current advantage is slightly less when estimating the preferences of likely voters, which Gallup will begin reporting on a regular basis between now and the election. Gallup is providing two likely voter estimates to take into account different turnout scenarios.

The first likely voter model is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter assumptions, which determine respondents' likelihood to vote based on how they answer questions about their current voting intention and past voting behavior. According to this model, Obama's advantage over McCain is 50% to 46% in Oct. 9-11 tracking data.

They also have an "if all those new voters" show up number of 6. But given that Gallup was touting Obama up by 11 just a few days ago. I kind of like Obama by four.

This race is closing. All of the National polls are starting to show that.

Comments

[SacTownMan]

Back and forth. Polls are a great fix for the die hards.

The American people will be standing at the voting machines and there will be many, many of those undecided voters that will just stop themselves and say;

"Can I really take a chance on this Xerxes guy?"

Imagine the number of folks that right then and there will say "No way am I voting for this empty suit!"

It's called "The Bradley effect", you know all of those bitter, clingy white folks that have been bullshitting the polsters the past several months!

[Peg C.]

Just like Rush said they would. My hubby and I keep reminding ourselves that Kerry was up by 9 or something going into the 2004 election and Al Gore was ahead by several points in every poll going into the 2000 election. What we have to remember is the MSM and polling vehicles will NEVER allow a Republican lead in the polls in the weeks leading up to the election. The polls cannot be believed, but they sure do set the Dems up for some rough derangement afterwards (usually...hopefully...God willing!). We can lose, or we can win and suffer the left's incessant derangement. I know my preference.

[Nikolay]

"My hubby and I keep reminding ourselves that Kerry was up by 9 or something going into the 2004 election"
What stuff are you smoking???
Here are 2004 polls:
http://www.pollingreport2.com/wh2004a.htm
Most of them have Bush winning.

[Spartan112]

Most of the national polls say what??? The RCP avg. is at 7.3, it was at about 5.7 a week ago. The trend is still towards Obama as the McCain campaign begins to implode.

[LOL]

funny because RCP still has obama by +7ish

But sure, he's "closing"

[BobinStamford]

OMG, McLame isn't sinking any lower!! Sounds like another victory for the patriots! Word must be getting out about the success of the SURGE!

[Lala]

Here's a poll from 2004 - you can check each day - it was up and down leading into the election

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct17.html

[Fred Beloit]

The whining from the Left is, one hopes, reaching a crescendo. "Wah wah wah, they are picking on our leader. He in his saintly way is speaking wisdom and joy. The evil Repubs are trying to tell us something about our leader that we don't want ANYBODY to hear. I'm going to throw one of the heavy Sunday New York Times at them. Boo hoo hoo."

[Fred Beloit]

Newsbusters blog poses a very good question:

"When Will MSM Report Obama's Support for Kenyan Tyrant Odinga?"

[JustOneMan]

Prediction day after election "Media runs with Dumbocrap barry HUSSEIN obama's "racism" talking points and creates big voter back lash - McCain WINS"

America dont give up the stakes are too high!! Hold your nose and vote for McCain!!

[Lala]

Odinga is Obama's cousin.

http://www.jihadwatch.org/dhimmiwatch/archives/019454.php

excerpt

"Mob Sets Kenya Church on Fire, Killing Dozens," by Jeffrey Gettleman for The New York Times:

NAIROBI, Kenya — Dozens of people seeking refuge in a church in Kenya were burned to death by a mob on Tuesday in an explosion of ethnic violence that is threatening to engulf this country, which until last week was one of the most stable in Africa.

[LOL]

JustOneMan you do realize the word media is plural? Probably a pretty good explanation of why you believe such batshit crazy idiocy.

[Lala]

§ 206. media

The word medium comes from Latin. It has two plural forms—a Latin plural media and a normal English -s plural mediums. Trouble arises when the Latin plural is used as a singular noun in the fields of mass communications and journalism. 1
You may have come across media used as a singular noun to refer to a particular means of communication, as in The Internet is the most exciting new media since television. Many people regard this usage as incorrect, preferring medium as the singular instead. 2
People also use media with the definite article as a collective term to refer not to the forms of communication themselves so much as the communities and institutions behind them. In this sense, the media means something like “the press.” Like other collective nouns, it may take a singular or plural verb depending on the intended meaning. If the point is to emphasize the multifaceted nature of the press, a plural verb may be more appropriate: The media have covered the trial in a variety of formats. Quite frequently, however, media stands as a singular noun for the aggregate of journalists and broadcasters: The media has not shown much interest in covering the trial. This development of a singular media parallels that of more established words such as data and agenda, which are also Latin plurals that have acquired a singular meaning. 3
Remember that you can’t use the singular medium as a collective noun for the press. You can’t say No medium has shown much interest in covering the trial, which would suggest that the lack of interest is in the means of communication itself rather than in its practitioners.

[Worst President Ever]

National polls numbers are interesting, but it's the state polls that matter. McCain's losing or tied in states he absolutely, positively has to have like Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida. The game, in football-speak, is being played on McCain's end of the field.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data

Another problem for McCain is his negatives have gone up, above 50% in most polls, as he's "taken the gloves off. Voters that don't like you are tough to flip to your side.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/mccain_favorableunfavorable-642.html

vs this:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/obama_favorableunfavorable-643.html

[chris]

Oooh, Grandpa's coming out with a 'forceful' new stump speech!!!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081013/pl_politico/14513

Watch out!!

[mary]

You have to wonder why they rolled the Clintons out now.

Also, did anyone else read that Hillary raised an enormous amount of money for BO? She must really like being kicked in the teeth by men. I mean didn't she ask him to help with her campaign debt? And didn't he send her packing with a big "NO"? And then she goes out and raises all kinds of money for him. Rumor has it she is keeping track, carefully, of the money she raised for him. But she is still not out of debt right? So why didn't she take the money and extinguish her debt and then pass along the rest?

[rightwingprof]

And all of the polls are oversampling Democrats. Every one. Now, the state polls are even more problematic. Like the national polls, they oversample Democrats. But they have a smaller sample, which makes them less reliable.

[LOL]

Rumor has it that mary is a transvestite who loves munching rugs for $5 a pop. Unless you can prove that this is not true, we have to believe as per wingnut logic.

[mary]

Didn't I read though that registered dems far outnumber registered republicans? So wouldn't it be correct to poll more dems?

[templar knight]

You liberals have said time after time that McCain is waaaaaaaaayyyyyyyy out of the race. Funny how you boys are wrong so much. Like 2000 and 2004. Looks like a replay of those to me. I'm gonna celebrate right in the middle of blue NYC. Hahaha!

[mary]

The left is having a good day:

"October 13, 2008, 7:50 am
Paul Krugman Wins Economics Nobel
By Catherine Rampell

Paul Krugman, a professor at Princeton University and an Op-Ed columnist for The New York Times, was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences on Monday."

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/13/paul-krugman-wins-economics-nobel/

[hdtv]

Looks to me like Obama is closing the deal. I don't see any shift toward McCain. Perhaps a few undecides are becoming decides, but Obama's margin hasn't changed.

Also, it looks like Obama's margin is equivalent to the number of undecides. Which means McCain can't win based on undecides. He is going to have to shift numbers from Obama's column. But, if in fact the race is "closing", voters are becoming committed and McCain will have a very hard time pulling from the Obama column.

[mary]

Obama is getting ready to roll out yet another economic plan. Free publicity everyone is eagerly planning to cover his announcement. wonder if WS will go into the tank? And it was shaping up to be not so bad. ugh

[Lala]

Mary,
www.instapundit.com has a comment about Krugman and a poll.

[mary]

lala, this is my all time favorite quote now, form our illustrious hero, Knugman:

"“To be absolutely, totally honest I thought this day might come someday"

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/13/paul-krugman-wins-economics-nobel/

[mary]

You know it is an insane day when dealbreaker borrows drudge's flashing light:

"Gasparino vs. Salmon: The Catfight You Never Knew You Wanted But Somehow Feels So Right
Posted by Bess Levin, Oct 13, 2008, 1:05pm"

http://dealbreaker.com/

[Lala]

Krugman Nobel Makes for Morning Joe Mirth
By Mark Finkelstein | October 13, 2008 - 10:04

http://newsbusters.org/

[Lala]

Krugman Nobel Makes for Morning Joe Mirth
By Mark Finkelstein | October 13, 2008 - 10:04

http://newsbusters.org/

[mary]

" And, as it looks increasingly likely that Obama will be that man, the markets are casting a vote of "no confidence."

To be fair, McCain hardly instills confidence among the Wall Streeters I speak to. Why has his campaign spent the last week focusing on Obama's friendship with former terrorist William Ayers - when it should be hitting Obama's blind loyalty to policies that bring together the worst elements of Herbert Hoover and Jimmy Carter?"
http://tinyurl.com/4uvnwd

[mary]

"while guest Jim Cramer saw the award as confirmation that America is well on the way to socialism."
http://www.newsbusters.org/

[mary]

"Andrea Mitchell tried to uphold the Krugman honor, but—as seen in the screencap—even she couldn't suppress a smile at the award's arrant absurdity.

Joe Scarborough piqued Mika's curiosity with his teasing of the news, while guest Jim Cramer saw the award as confirmation that America is well on the way to socialism."
http://newsbusters.org/

[Lala]

Rumor has it that Palin's crowd in Richmond is 30,000 and growing. She's to speak at 2 PM

[mary]

I heard a small blurb on the radio about some interview of voters who said they were voting for BO and then, when asked about BO's policies, spouted all of McCain's policies and unnerved the interviewers. Did anyone hear anything about this? Would be a major disconnect right?

[mary]

dan, what else do they have on McCain? Let's get it all out so he can be free to debate in the last debate. This Acorn stuff coming out at malkin's is just horrific. But you knew, you knew they had something on him or he wouldn't have remained so so quiet while america was furious.

[RPL]

Wizbang had a couple of posts that are a couple of days old, but they go into how the poll numbers can be made to lie. If anyone wants to go to the website stolenthunder.blogspot.com, you can read why the polling numbers are guesswork. They run the math and come up witha much closer race than the polls would indicate.

[chris]

Lol

http://michellemalkin.com/2008/10/13/sigh-mccain-and-his-friends-atacorn/

You guys are TOO funny. Tell us more, 'maverick'!!

lol

[mary]

"Obama Tells Tax-Burdened Plumber the Plan is to ‘Spread the Wealth Around’"

""It's not that I want to punish your success. I just want to make sure that everybody that is behind you, that they have a chance for success too."

http://www.breitbart.tv/html/195153.html
via matt drudge

Wait, this isn't the capitalist system.

looks like these two guys are on the same page, if you believe wiki:

"Paulson has quickly distinguished himself from his two predecessors in the Bush administration by formally identifying the wide gap between the richest and poorest Americans as an issue on his list of the country's four major long-term economic issues to be addressed, highlighting the issue in one of his first public appearances as Secretary of Treasury.[15]"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Paulson

[Lala]

Mary, I think you mean Howard Stern's guy interviewing people in Harlem. It's on youtube

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PgV3_1_qlc

[mary]

Well, isn't this just peachy: (I felt like the church lady when I heard this)

"Is Robertson saying on CNBC that 80 to 85% of Americans are broke? Technically bankrupt?"

http://tinyurl.com/3wkz9j

[mary]

Thanks Lala, when I get off the work machine I'll have a peak.

[chris]

I'd rather hear from shut-in Long Island housewives. Much more interesting stuff.

[mary]

A co worker just told me that the dems are already re witting the drilling ban bill in anticipation of BO being elected.

[Worst President Ever]

HIllary calls Sarah Palin and raises her: "Jobs, Baby, Jobs".

[mary]

Of the four of them, I would bank on Palin to be the one to deliver jobs. How come hillary is talking jobs? What about her constituents in the upper part of her state still waiting for those jobs she promised while campaigning.

[Worst President Ever]

Blast from the Past: Powerline on Krugman - whoops!

http://powerlineblog.com/archives/011291.php

[mary]

Frankly, I don’t know the answer. I just know that for a long time, we have paid Wall Street “experts” unimaginable sums for preparing for our retirement. They still have our money, and we have ashes. And I wonder whose side government is on, which is a bad thought to have, and I wish I didn’t have it. As the song goes, there is revolution in the air.

Ben Stein is a lawyer, writer, actor and economist. E-mail: ebiz@nytimes.com."
http://tinyurl.com/4ng9mr

[Worst President Ever]

I won't pretend this will be easy or come without cost. We'll have to set priorities as never before, and stick to them. That means pursuing investments in areas such as energy, education and health care that bear directly on our economic future, while deferring other things we can afford to do without. It means scouring the federal budget, line-by-line, ending programs that we don't need and making the ones we do work more efficiently and cost less.

We've lived through an era of easy money, in which we were allowed and even encouraged to spend without limits; to borrow instead of save. Now, I know that in an age of declining wages and skyrocketing costs, for many folks this was not a choice but a necessity. People have been forced to turn to credit cards and home equity loans to keep up, just like our government has borrowed from China and other creditors to help pay its bills. But we now know how dangerous that can be. Once we get past the present emergency, which requires immediate new investments, we have to break that cycle of debt. Our long-term future requires that we do what's necessary to scale down our deficits, grow wages and encourage personal savings again."

http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2008/10/obama_oct_13_2008_economic_cri.html

[mary]

WPE, why does he always do this? He did it with Hillary and now he is doing it with McCain. When is he going to come up with something original, that Hillary hasn't said already, that McCain hasn't said already? I mean he has a piss poor economic team and they aren't hitting it out of the park if you know what I mean.

[mary]

"The Rich Support McCain, But The REALLY Rich Support Obama
Caroline Waxler | Oct 13, 2008 5:11 PM

monopoly-man.gifSurprising, right?"

http://tinyurl.com/4w2ncs

[Lala]

Mary, the really rich have most of their money in tax shelters, like the Kennedys. Congress passes laws for them while ripping off everyone else. That is why the tax code is so many, many pages.