Battles To Fight, Battles To Come

USA Today points out Democrats are terribly wrong on an important issue coming up very soon:

When citizens go to the polls on Nov. 4, they will be free to vote their conscience  —  regardless of pressure from relatives, friends or co-workers  —  after having had a chance to weigh the alternatives. Campaigns and secret ballots are sacrosanct elements of American democracy.

So it's surprising and disturbing that organized labor wants to do away with both these elements when workers decide whether to form a union.

Heck, even McGovern knows how bad and ultimately dangerous this idea is. But people also need to calm down and realize there's still a battle to fight right now. More on that below.

This election is far from over. Investor's Business Daily has it at 3 - Rasmussen and others have shrunk to from 4 - 5, while Obama continues to not be able to close the deal. I see some talking about an insurrection, wanting to simply blast the Dems for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That isn't going to do squat to change this election.

The voters in play right now are low information voters. If you can't put it into one sentence, or two at most, you are not going to reach them. McCain is currently taking the right course - remaining positive and talking about the economy, Obama as a tax raiser, and so on. Swing voters don't like fighting between the parties. They want to know if there are differences between the candidates and what they are.

On taxes and government growth, McCain has the advantage over Obama. And that, more than anything else, is what he needs to talk about for the next three weeks. If a 527 comes in and hits Obama on Wright, Ayres, Fannie Mae, etc - so much the better. That could ultimately put McCain over the top.

But McCain has to stay focused on job one - convincing swing voters he's a solid and preferred alternative to the liberal policies of Democrats right now.

Comments

[Spartan112]

Lol, Joe the plumber is a lie...he's related to Charles Keating's son-in-law...lol.

[tim maguire]

LOL! Barack Obama is participating in a scheme to undermine Barack Obama? Really? That would be strange, but it's the only way Joe the Plumber could be a lie, no matter who he might or might not be related to.

Why don't you libs come clean and just admit you don't care. You don't care who Barack Obama is, you don't care what he'll do as president, you don't even care what he'll try to do never mind that he has not shown any ability to get things done. You'll be voting for him anyway because voting Democrat allows you to pat yourself on the back at night thinking happy thoughts about what a wonderful person you are. Voting any other party just doesn't give you that one thing that you crave--self-satisfaction.

[Drex Davis]

You are right on this.

McCain's stump speech should repeat 1000x
"He's a tax raising, I'm a tax cutter. He wants the government to spend more money, I want the government to spend less money."

Can he do it?

I think he can. I'm frankly, shocked that this race is 4-5 points. The fact that it is just points to how incredibly weak a candidate Barack Obama is. If this was any other Democrat, this would be a 15 point lead, easy. But this is not any other Democrat. This is the least experienced candidate they have.

After three debates and a mountain of hatred against the Republican Brand, the American people aren't ready to "throw the bums out." There are a lot of undecideds out there who just won't break for Obama because they are nervous and he doesn't reassure them.

He has three weeks to reassure them, because if he doesn't soon the independents won't break his way.

Also, he'd better watch the narrative forming here - see Drudge about him planning his victory party. This could kill him for two reasons.

1 - this isn't a time when most Americans are celebrating. So what, you think you're going to win, you're having a party, but this isn't the time to party.

2 - American's don't like premature celebrations. "Hey buddy, we haven't actually pulled the lever for you yet and you think you have our vote, that this is in the bag."

I understand that this race is closer than they like so they're trying to project the aura of inevitability . . . but that *could* backfire.

Of course, it could work. But I'd say the odds are against that.

Obama is not closing the deal and they have to be very nervous about that.

He had two jobs in the debates. The first was to not make a good of himself. He managed to do that. The second was to project power and confidence and imbue people with a sense that he could navigate the country through troubled waters. He's not doing that . . . He's close, but he hasn't closed the deal. McCain has room to run on that issue. When will Obama get another chance?

He's vulnerable.

[joeb]

Obama is now playing rope a dope. He better watch out or Joe the Plumber will sway many undecided voters. I enjoyed last night's debate. I thought it was the best of the 3. Finally Obama had to answer some questions. Joe the Plumber is a great thing for McCain. They should run tv ads with Joe the Plumber non stop from now until the election. Hit Obama on taxes. Joe the Plumber. Sounds like a movie to me.

[Lala]

Re the union open ballot scheme - I was once a shop steward for the Teamsters Union. Be afraid, be very afraid.

[mark l.]

the number that jumped out at me:

gallup using the 2004 model has it within 2 pts. didn't know they were using an alternative method from previous elections, until now...

I figure harpo will be along soon enough...
and would ask him the preemptive question, again:

Why is there such a disparity between Obama's favorabilty and his actual polling?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

obama-57.3 on favorability/35.9 unfavorable, but 49.5 on poll averages.
mccain-50.1fav/42.3 unfav, 42.3 in polls...note:remove the cbs poll that has mccain at 36%, and his fav avg is 52%.

observations:

7.4% have a favorable view of both candidates, which loosely corresponds to the rcp average of 7.8 undecideds.
(personally, I have a favorable view of obama, but have decided to vote for mccain as the only real choice)

21.8% do not hold an unfavorable of either candidate, rough guestimate...assuming unfavorables reflect party affiliation, with leaners. The 21.8 also corresponds to the independents, 42.3 to democratic affilation(interesting that this is also roughly Clinton/bush/perot %'s in 92, ), and the 35.9 to conservatives.

but let's take a glance at the cnn demographics from 2004:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

The breakdown went, by affilation-
37% for BOTH republican and democrats, 26% indepndents.

despite the rcp average of generics of dems 48.6 /gop 37.4/adnatage dems 11.2.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/generic_vote.html

current rcp average of generics is actually 8.8, which is BELOW the 11.2 dem advantage of 2004.

ALL the current polls are relying a 6pt advantage by dems, but 2004 seemed to prove that the dems over perform in polls of affilation, while the gop underperforms, and yet all current polls continue to use the same faulty numbers.

If you crunch the numbers based on the actual results regarding affilation of 04, mccain is actually leading by about 2-3 pts.

[Rich K]

Just give it time time to float down to the "Round the water cooler stage". This Joe Plumber meme is gonna resonate Big and the media are just fueling the fire with the smear job.I can count on the white collar g.o.v voters going O'bummer and many other union types ( of which the numbers are small these days)saying yes to More g.o.v but if we are truly a nation of small business,work to get ahead people then Im confident this will go in our favor.As long as those folks take the time from work to make damn sure they get to the polls.

[mark l.]

a simpler verison of my previous post...

all polls rely on weighting.
no poll predicts actual turnout.

bush increased his turnout, empirically, by 22% from 2000. no poll predicted this.
the average advantage for the generic democrat in 04 was over 11 pts-the empirical evidence provided that there was no advantage.

when gallup, a very respectable firm, is out there changing their model that actually did predict the 04 results, in favor of one that is weighting democrats, young, and minorities, without any history to support the belief, I'm inclined to believe that mccain actually has the dems where he wants them.

when congressional approval is now about half of what it was in 2006, with the democrats controlling both houses, their support isn't wavering among independents? please...

[mark l.]

Just give it time time to float down to the "Round the water cooler stage".

rich k is absolutely right.

IF the msm keeps the guy in the spotlight, whether to feature or crucify, it provides the 'connection' that is lacking between mccain and independents/conservatives.