A Three Point Play, Plus Pennsylvania And McCain Wins

Update: Latest poll for Nevada has it tied. Just got an email from Our Country Deserves Better taking some credit for the uptick because of a grassroots effort and ad buy. If you want to support them - click in here and take a look. They are moving on to Michigan - might want to make that PA folks.

Combining an RCP page and this item h/t Instapundit - makes McCain's current most logical play fairly clear. It means, first, he would have to win five states currently polling with him behind under three points: Florida -2, Ohio -2.8, Nevada -2.3, North Carolina -1.5, and Missouri -2.7.

If McCain can pull those out and then win Pennsylvania -11 (but said to be closer) - he wins the presidency with 273 EVs. He doesn't need Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico or anything else. Pretty simple, huh? On paper, anyway.

It's a steep climb, but sure beats looking at those national polls that have him down from 6 - 10 points.

Comments

[jharp]

Dream on. Even the rednecks here in Indiana understand the hopelessness.

I was at a GOP fundraiser after golf today and couldn't believe my ears. Can't speak for the whole state but in a very republican county and a republican fundraiser surrender was evident.

And I got a free meal out of it after the golf. Thanks to the GOP.

[jharp]

I'll bet this sells well in Pennsylvainia.

"The Republican National Committee appears to have spent more than $150,000 to clothe and accessorize vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and her family since her surprise pick by John McCain in late August."

Ouch! Ouch! Ouch!

[jharp]

I swear you must my smoking dope. Or the McCain camp has been smoking it.

Where in the hell do you get off that he has even the slightest chance in Pa.

And he has to win five other states in addition?

Was it the hockey game where Plain was booed so passionately?

I wish I had your enthusiasm. I'd go try out for the Colts? Ya never know. They might just need a 48 year slow and not very fit backup for Peyton.

[mark l.]

jharp-

I'm getting the idea that 527's are about to do some swift boating...
of course mccain will chastise, and the media will scold, but the end result is some serious deflation.

The media has been going with the evil john mccain and his evil message, but all the monkeys that would see it, in a vacuum, have already fallen out of the tree.

In the meantime, the dems have been going with the kitchen sink strategy since 2000...kinda hard to threaten the gop with 'nukes' when all you could possibly do is bomb the same targets, with diminished effect. Negative works among the low info voters, whatever the costs is among the media.

mccain has been laying low, if you haven't noticed, and joe the plumber actually shifted the news cycle off of the economy.

the above states are well within the bradley effect AND/OR poor weighting...if it is the case where the bradley effect does play out and the poll weighting is as bad as it was in 2004, this is going to be a landslide.

btw, obama will lose IN by a larger margin than kerry.
I did a little stint in south bend, and Indiana is far more racist than PA.

[mark l.]

"Where in the hell do you get off that he has even the slightest chance in Pa."

2004-Bush 49, Kerry 51?

[mark l.]

"Where in the hell do you get off that he has even the slightest chance in Pa."

clinton 54.6
obama 45.4.

That wasn't early in his campaign, it was a 'past the midpoint' stumble.

bitter clingers reside there.

[jharp]

btw, obama will lose IN by a larger margin than kerry.
I did a little stint in south bend, and Indiana is far more racist than PA.

I agree. I'm originally an Ohioan but spent a lot of time in Pa and clearly Indiana is the most racist. We had a Klansman as mayor in the 20's.

And not saying Obama will win Indiana, McCain will. But by less than W in 04.

And the 527 attacks? Bring Them On. What's it going to be next? That Obama is from outer space?

And the bradley effect? Good one. Turn off Fox and Limbo. Seriously, think about what you are pinning your hopes on.

[jharp]

"Where in the hell do you get off that he has even the slightest chance in Pa."

clinton 54.6
obama 45.4.

Hey mark l,

In case you didn't know. Obama isn't running against Clinton.

[jharp]

"Where in the hell do you get off that he has even the slightest chance in Pa."

2004-Bush 49, Kerry 51?

Posted by: mark l. | Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 12:30 AM

And neither Kerry nor Bush is running. I'd almost feel sorry for you clinging to such a hopeless situation but I know that you know better.

[ET]

--And I got a free meal out of it after the golf. Thanks to the GOP.

Damn, jharp. I told myself I was done with you. Then here you go again, not 12 hours after I smacked you down, with your blatant admission that you are a malingerer who needs my subsidy to make your ends meet.

Three posts in a row, filled with anger and misplaced sarcasm. You are not even good at insulting people, which seems to be your life's goal. and you delight in the prospect of taking other peoples money to support your lifestyle (since you have failed to do so).

We learn nothing from you, harp. Nothing. Your posts are fiction, your rants are boring, your insults are lame. Perhaps you are in to self-flagellation.

Do us a favor..move to the huffpost, where your snarkiness is respected and you are afforded a modicom of respect..something you will never have here.

[Joe W.]

Hi there Dan,

I work with the Our Country Deserves Better Committee, and indeed we are very hopeful about the latest poll out of Nevada.

We launched our ad buy with 3 states: Nevada (broadcast and cable ad buy), Colorado (just cable at this point), and Michigan (broadcast and cable).

Simultaneous to this has been our "Stop Obama Tour" with rallies in what was originally 35 but may grow to 40 cities - mostly in swing states of Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Missouri, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania.

Michigan is a tricky state - we decided it would be a priority pretty early on. We then saw McCain bail on the state on the eve of the Michigan polls that showed him going from down 5% or so to down 14% after the economic crisis hit the TV news and bailouts and Wall Street drops magnified the sensitivities to economic issues in the state.

We received A LOT of our funding for our PAC from a pledge to fight for Michigan, including a lot of money from Michigan residents.

We believe McCain's campaign didn't do enough to link Obama's policies to those of the failed Democratic Governor, Jennifer Granholm. We see this as an opportunity to make up some ground pretty quick. Michigan has the highest unemployment rate in the nation. Democratic Governor Granholm has raised taxes left and right. She's been a big-spender. Sound like anyone we know? To us it sounds like what Obama's policies will lead to should he be elected.

Then Obama pulled at least most of his ads from the airwaves in Michigan and moved staff out of the state.

So the state has a unique opportunity for a group like ours to honor the commitments we made to thousands of donors who gave money specifically to fight for Michigan, with little opposition from Obama's camp, and in an environment where Obama and his Democratic allies are vulnerable. (Remember, he also kissed up to Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick to get his support in the primaries, and Kilpatrick was a long ago supporter of Obama's in his State Senate days in Illinois).

Our strategy has been to examine Ohio and Pennsylvania and maybe add a TV ad campaign to those states in the next few days. That will depend on our fundraising.

I understand if people might agree or disagree with our strategy... that's entirely fair.

I just wanted to explain the background on why we've chosen this path. We're going to head into Michigan day after tomorrow and blitz the state with 10 rallies in the Upper and Lower Peninsula and let the people of this state know that their votes are not being taken for granted.

Oh, and one more note: we do have a bit of legitimacy to speaking to the people of Michigan.

Both myself, and our Chairman (Howard Kaloogian), are Michigan natives, and Howard currently works with Hillsdale College in the state (his family grew up here and Howard and his brother worked in the auto plants in southeast Michigan).

See: http://www.whmi.com/news/article/7220

[mark l.]

some demographics on pa,

with cnn providng % of vote-

philly,11% kerry-71-28
philly suburbs,22% bush 54-43
NE Pa, 14% bush 56-41
Pittburgh area 23%, bush 48-45
Central/North tier 30%, bush 63-30.

murtha calling his area, (which includes the Pittsburgh area) 'racist' and 'redneck' on different days is manna from heaven.

McCain is smart to go after an area which had been previously split...far greater gains to be had.

[jharp]

Hey ET,

If it makes you feel any better I was the big loser in golf today.

And don't forget to pay your taxes on time.

The interest and penalties amount to more than than Obama's slight increase for big shots like you making more than 250K.

[mark l.]

let's take a small peak at some of the few pa polls offered, survey usa...
sample weighting?
54 democrat, 35 republican.
morning call?
52% democrat, 41 republican.

The dems, at best are around 40% id, which is actually better than most states*, with the gop at best 35, at worst 30.

take a look at VA, with its surveyusa demos,
40 dem, 34 gop, which is more in line with being a bluer state than PA.

look at the internals of any poll you see, and if the number in a relatively purple state exceeds 40 for dems, its a bad poll.

[jharp]

philly,11% kerry-71-28
philly suburbs,22% bush 54-43
NE Pa, 14% bush 56-41
Pittburgh area 23%, bush 48-45
Central/North tier 30%, bush 63-30.

Posted by: mark l. | Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 12:47 AM

In 1996, Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole 49 percent to 40 percent.

It has pretty much the same significance.

[Benson]

"Dream on. Even the rednecks here in Indiana understand the hopelessness."

Good thing that the "rednecks" elsewhere don't. Tens of thousands of people turn out for Palin and McCain rallies across the south and west. They're obviously not feeling the "hopelessness".

"Ouch! Ouch! Ouch!"

Yeah, about as well as Arugula-eating snobs. If Obama tries to make an issue of that, don't expect that his own expensive tastes won't come up.

"Where in the hell do you get off that he has even the slightest chance in Pa."

Uh, even Kos posters are saying that it's closer in PA than recent polls are saying it is? Uh, that Obama polled well in PA before the primary and then lost the state? The fact that Bush only lost by a few points in '04 and according to Murtha part of the state is racist?

"Was it the hockey game where Plain was booed so passionately?"

Getting booed there is like a badge of honor. They threw crap at Santa Claus.

"And the bradley effect? Good one. Turn off Fox and Limbo. Seriously, think about what you are pinning your hopes on."

How about the fact that Obama polled much better in several states before the primary and ended up doing worse in the actual election? Get off of HuffPo every so often.

"And neither Kerry nor Bush is running."

No, you're right. This time it's a war hero against an inexperienced liberal in a state that Murtha says is racist.

"The interest and penalties amount to more than than Obama's slight increase for big shots like you making more than 250K."

Or, according to liberal economist Paul Krugman, $183,000. Which actually isn't that rare.

"And don't forget to pay your taxes on time."

Most of us don't. I guess it's easy to be a liberal when you don't make enough to pay many or any taxes already. Hearing about another tax raise on those who do doesn't effect you.

[ET]

I always pay my taxes on time, if you are addressing that question directly to me. Otherwise, maybe you should go to bed....you seem more drunk than usual.

I guess this year, if uncle barry is elected...your Bud's on me.

I still wont shake you hand.

[mark l.]

let's just take one more peak at what the weighting of the usa, morning call numbers mean-

usa: obama 55-40, but compare to the sample of dems/gop 54/35.
obama gains 1, mccain gains 5. outside of democrats, obama is getting killed.

morning call:52-42. dems/gop 52/41.

in both polls obama's support is completely dependent upon the % of dems in the actual sample. He gains no indpendent voters. Not a problem if democratic id is over 50%, but an absolute nightmare if it is closer to 40%.

[jharp]

Most of us don't. I guess it's easy to be a liberal when you don't make enough to pay many or any taxes already. Hearing about another tax raise on those who do doesn't effect you.

Posted by: Benson | Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 01:10 AM

Interesting in your reasoning on why you would pay your taxes late. I've been in business for 25 years and it took me about 1 year to figure out to pay on time.

Are you are lousy businessman or are you struggling to make ends meet? It's really quite simple. You simply send them a check.

[jharp]

I always pay my taxes on time, if you are addressing that question directly to me. Otherwise, maybe you should go to bed....you seem more drunk than usual.

I guess this year, if uncle barry is elected...your Bud's on me.

I still wont shake you hand.

Posted by: ET | Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 01:18 AM

You are either lying now or lied in your October 15th post about just sending in another 20 grand to settle 2007.

Which is it?

Liar.

[Benson]

"I've been in business for 25 years and it took me about 1 year to figure out to pay on time."

It took you a year to figure out how to pay your taxes on time?

[jharp]

"I've been in business for 25 years and it took me about 1 year to figure out to pay on time."

It took you a year to figure out how to pay your taxes on time?

Posted by: Benson | Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 01:52 AM

No, you jackass. I figured out my first year that if you don't pay on time they charge you interest and penalties.

Why don't you pay on time? Things a little tight or are you stupid and lazy?

[Ken Nelson]

I agree with Mark L. Current poll results rely on over weighting Democrats,plus Obama under performs his polling usually. My election predictions have a McCain win and black riots.

[ET]

--You are either lying now or lied in your October 15th post about just sending in another 20 grand to settle 2007.

Which is it?

Liar.--

jharp, seriously. put down the bottle. wtf are you talking about?

Feed your children.

[mary]

"I'll bet this sells well in Pennsylvainia.

"The Republican National Committee appears to have spent more than $150,000 to clothe and accessorize vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and her family since her surprise pick by John McCain in late August."

Ouch! Ouch! Ouch!

Posted by: jharp | Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 12:12 AM"

Thakoon
Floral Kimono Dress
$1,250.00

This is just 1 of the numerous dresses (you haven't seen her wear anything twice, right) that MO has purchased.

http://tinyurl.com/5dzytb

"A Thakoon Coup

01 September 2008, 11:04AM

THAKOON PANICHGUL pulled off one of the designer coups of the year when Michelle Obama chose to wear the Radzimir kimono dress from his pre-spring 2009 collection as her husband delivered his Presidential nomination acceptance speech in Denver last Thursday - the significance of which has not been lost on the New York-based designer."

http://tinyurl.com/5h64ka

[ET]

--Are you are lousy businessman or are you struggling to make ends meet?

Do you remember posting this comment, jharp? Perhaps you never will. Alcoholism offers many excuses.

You shit bricks and called foul when I suggested that you lacked business acumen. Apparently, I hit a nerve.

So now you throw out a similar accusation.

You are useless.

[jharp]

"So now you throw out a similar accusation."

No, ET.

I asked a simple question.

Why would someone opt to not pay their taxes on time?

[jharp]

Floral Kimono Dress
$1,250.00

This is just 1 of the numerous dresses (you haven't seen her wear anything twice, right) that MO has purchased.

http://tinyurl.com/5dzytb

"A Thakoon Coup

01 September 2008, 11:04AM

THAKOON PANICHGUL pulled off one of the designer coups of the year when Michelle Obama chose to wear the Radzimir kimono dress from his pre-spring 2009 collection as her husband delivered his Presidential nomination acceptance speech in Denver last Thursday - the significance of which has not been lost on the New York-based designer."

http://tinyurl.com/5h64ka

Posted by: mary | Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 02:56 AM

So what is your point.

Since Michelle Obama wears a 1,200 dollar dress paid for by who knows.

That it is OK for the republican national committee to spend $150,000 on Palin.

Good luck selling that one.

[jharp]

I'm going night night.

Great day for me. I'm thinking about throwing an election night party.

A historic day in two weeks.

[xerocky]

"A historic day in two weeks"

Mccain wins.

[Spartan112]

Yup, I can't see that 150k clothing allowance playing very well for the GOP when they went after Edwards with both barrels over a 400$ haircut. At least Edwards hair looks good, what did Palin get for the RNC's 150k? The same thing in like 100 colors?

How's this gonna play with Joe the Plumber?

[BobinStamford]

"Alcoholism offers many excuses."

Indeed. George Bush stammers like the guy from Slingblade from being a drunk. His crazy wife killed a guy while drunk.

Just say no to teh booze, patriots!

Oh, and it looks like the sad old geezer is SURGING in the polls. He is, right? America is still yours patriots!!

Until January.

Semper Fi!!

[BobinStamford]

Lookie here, trooop supporters

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews1604.html

On top of everything else, B. Hussein is TIED among Nascar fans. Shall I repeat that?

My fellow prisoners, your old man and idiot bimbo must SURGE even more to achieve victory!!!

The truth about Bill Ayers must be known!!!

[WileECoyote]

Hey JHarp wake up and go to work!! Quit railing ET about paying his taxes late. That was me you moron. I am a self employed small businessman. I paid 50 grand in estimated tax on time for 07. I owed the extra 20 due to capital gains (recall the market was pretty good in 07). Under Obama's plan, I would have paid even more with the higher capital gains rates, and FIT increases.
I work for my money, and do not cotton to the government redistributing my wealth any more than it presently does. Sober up JHarp you fraud, and go to work.

[mary]

"So what is your point.

Since Michelle Obama wears a 1,200 dollar dress paid for by who knows.

That it is OK for the republican national committee to spend $150,000 on Palin.

Good luck selling that one.

Posted by: jharp | Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 03:15 AM"

You brought it up, not me. I was showing you that MO isn't buying her clothes in thrift stores. She is possibly spending more than what was spent on Palin and her entire family.

[mary]

Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D) reminds me of Mayor Daly. Don't trust him at all.

[chris]

Geez, that sorry old man can't get a break.

First, he has a 'senior moment' where he agrees with fellow senior citizen John Murtha about the racists in western PA and now this

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D93VA3B80&show_article=1

What will we tell the troops!!!

[Spartan112]

You brought it up, not me. I was showing you that MO isn't buying her clothes in thrift stores. She is possibly spending more than what was spent on Palin and her entire family.

Posted by: mary | Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 09:20 AM

You're missing the point Mary, but that seems to be a regular occurrence. The point is that the RNC is paying for the clothes. Secondarily, Palin continues to try to paint herself as Jane Sixpack. Does a 150k shopping spree fit in with that image? Michelle Obama is making no such effort in regards to her image.

[Jim Treacher]

"Dream on. Even the rednecks here in Indiana understand the hopelessness."

So you keep insisting. One would think you'd be a bit more relaxed, if you're so convinced of victory.

Why so angry? Sheer force of habit?

[Jim Treacher]

"Secondarily, Palin continues to try to paint herself as Jane Sixpack. Does a 150k shopping spree fit in with that image?"

From what sort of tree did you imagine her outfits to be plucked? Oh wait, I got one: A bigot-tree! Feel free to use that.

[Spartan112]

"From what sort of tree did you imagine her outfits to be plucked? Oh wait, I got one: A bigot-tree! Feel free to use that."

Well I did imagine that she paid for them herself. But it's becoming clearer that she enjoys the trappings of political life whether it be collecting money for her children's travel or per diem while at home or getting the RNC to fund her trip to Saks. Why couldn't she just buy her clothes at Wal-Mart or even Target if she were feeling upscale?

[mary]

"The point is that the RNC is paying for the clothes. Secondarily, Palin continues to try to paint herself as Jane Sixpack. Does a 150k shopping spree fit in with that image? Michelle Obama is making no such effort in regards to her image.

Posted by: Spartan112 | Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 10:07 AM"

Palin doesn't "paint herself" as anything. If you look at her tax returns it is obvious that the Palins could not afford what you term "a 150K shopping spree". The fact that the RNC had to pay for the clothes smacks of Sarah Palin saying to them "My clothes are just fine, they are what I can afford. If you don't like them, then you pay." Anyone observing Palin and hearing this story will think "good for her".

[mary]

BTW, As an aside, Cindy McCain and Sarah Palin would be good for Americnan Fashion.

[Spartan112]

LOl, c'mon Mary...150k to make her look the part? 5k of that on makeup? Keep grasping at straws. The GOP went nuts over Edwards 400$ haircut, where is the outrage now?

[Spartan112]

"BTW, As an aside, Cindy McCain and Sarah Palin would be good for Americnan Fashion."

If it were 1985.

[mary]

Obviously Spartan you don't follow fashion both McCain and Palin are very current. So much so that the ultimate fashion compliment was given to Palin when, at the al smith dinner, Katy Couric wore her hair like Palin.

You posted "$150,000 to clothe and accessorize vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and her family since her surprise pick by John McCain in late August."

That is 7 human beings plus probably the boyfriend of the daughter. Clothing an entire family is one thing. Getting a $400 haircut is not even comparable. Didn't look any different from the "hair cut special" that you can get in an barber shop in America which is why people were so aghast.

[mary]

"LOl, c'mon Mary...150k to make her look the part? 5k of that on makeup? Keep grasping at straws. The GOP went nuts over Edwards 400$ haircut, where is the outrage now?

Posted by: Spartan112 | Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 10:49 AM"

You are trying to make this some sort of slap at Palin and I'm telling you that every woman in America, when she reads this is not going to see what you are seeing. They are going to see a sitting Governor who basically said to the GOP "I can't afford to buy all new clothing for me and this whole family, our clothes are fine, and, if you aren't happy with them, then you, the GOP, will have to remedy that." So, the GOP decided to do that. But Sarah Palin didn't decide to do it. That is the difference.

[mary]

While we are talking about expenditures, via drudge: The BO campaign:

Broadcast Media $160,446,232
Print Media $13,123,021
Internet Media $10,310,400

Insufficient Info $550,232

Travel $39,345,592

Food/Meetings $437,144

Campaign Expenses Polling/Surveys/Research $21,500,862

Political Consultants $1,745,777

Miscellaneous Campaign $371,620

Fundraising Direct Mail/Telemarketing $23,527,966

http://209.183.235.3/pres08/expend_detail.php?cid=N00009638&cycle=2008&excode=A10

After seeing the food bill I now believe the Iranian caviar, lobster stories.

[Spartan112]

150k to cloth 7 people? That's it...how does she get by...

[INCITEmarsh]

mark l.: "btw, obama will lose IN by a larger margin than kerry."

I did a little stint in south bend, and Indiana is far more racist than PA.

Kiss my white ass. Would this be the same Indiana where Obama lost by only two points to Hillary (with Operation Chaos in full effect)? Would it be the same South Bend whose county Obama won by 6?

I'll be the first to admit that Indiana has a checkered past when it comes to racism. I'll further stipulate that it is still a problem around here. But it's not the '20s anymore, dude. GFY.