Polls And Making Headlines

The national polls below all out today via Real Clear Politics. Which one do you think will make the most headlines?

National Rasmussen Tracking Obama 49, McCain 47 Obama +2

National ABC News/Wash Post Obama 52, McCain 43 Obama +9

National Ipsos-McClatchy Obama 44, McCain 43 Obama +1

National Battleground Tracking Obama 46, McCain 48 McCain +2

The one that's most likely an outlier, of course. It's news! So what if it's probably wrong.

Comments

[seekeronos]

If I were a betting man (which I am not), my money would be on ABC.

They seem to be sucking up all the scum from the bottom of the tank lately, and with showing the Obamaster at +9...

[mary]

I really don't trust any polls anymore. I remember the Zogby poll back in 2004. People aren't stupid, they know they can manipulate the pollsters by simply lying. It is sort of a fun thing to do and you tell your friends and you laugh about how you, in your own small way, outsmarted the pollsters. Why, even some of the campaigns are encouraging their supporters to lie to the pollsters, thereby skewing the true results as they have their own privately commissioned polls anyway. These polls are just supposed to make you and I say "oh wow, Senator Obama is winning, let me just give in and vote for him or give up and not vote at all.

[Spartan112]

Yes that one poll seems to be the outlier, but the one poll that shows McCain ahead could be an outlier as well. Regardless last week you had a massive hardon over the fact that McCain was ahead in the majority of national polls...feeling a little wilted as things swing the other way?

[jharp]

WaPo poll has Obama up 52-43.

The trackers also have Obama ahead.

Ras has Obama up 2.
Hotline has Obama up 6.
Dkos/R2000 has Obama up 4.
Ipsos/McClatchey has Obama up 1.
CNN/Opinion Research has Obama up 4.
Gallup has Obama by 3.

Only Battleground has McCain up 2.

It seems safe to say that Obama has a solid lead and it is because of the economy, the Palin VP choice disaster, and McCain's lies.

[jaime]

When McCain was up ten in Gallup how many times did Dan Riehl call that poll an outlier?

[Fred Beloit]

National Rasmussen Tracking Obama 49, McCain 47 Obama +2----Margin of error

National ABC News/Wash Post Obama 52, McCain 43 Obama +9----??????

National Ipsos-McClatchy Obama 44, McCain 43 Obama +1----Margin of error

National Battleground Tracking Obama 46, McCain 48 McCain +2----Margin of error

These polls clearly show a tie.

[Anon]

Republicans need to think about who to run in 2012.

The economic meltdown, though it is absolutely to be blamed on both parties is going to track in Obama's favor.

But, take heart, he will almost certainly be a one term president since the chances that he's the next Lincoln/Kennedy/messiah are virtually zero.

[jharp]

Pew Research: Missing Cell-Phone Onlys Matter

"In each of the surveys, there were only small, and not statistically significant, differences between presidential horserace estimates based on the combined interviews and estimates based on the landline surveys only. Yet a virtually identical pattern is seen across all three surveys: In each case, including cell phone interviews resulted in slightly more support for Obama and slightly less for McCain, a consistent difference of two-to-three points in the margin."

Ouch. Ain't looking too good. Better get Governor Palin to gut a moose on live television to put some spark into the base.

[JustADude]

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone September 19-22, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,082 adults, 916 registered voters and 780 likely voters. The survey includes additional interviews with randomly selected African Americans, for a total of 163 black respondents.

Good thing those extra Black respondents are fairly well split between dem/rep voting patterns.

Otherwise you might believe they were trying to bias the poll just a tad.

[Spartan112]

National Rasmussen Tracking Obama 49, McCain 47 Obama +2----Margin of error

National ABC News/Wash Post Obama 52, McCain 43 Obama +9----??????

National Ipsos-McClatchy Obama 44, McCain 43 Obama +1----Margin of error

National Battleground Tracking Obama 46, McCain 48 McCain +2----Margin of error

These polls clearly show a tie.

Posted by: Fred Beloit |

Fine Fred but you neglected to include Hotline/FD Obama +6...CNN/Opinion Obama +4 and Gallup Obama +3. Most polls are within the margin but the only ones outside of the margin show Obama ahead and only one national poll shows McCain ahead. Say what you will but the trend is clearly for Obama and it's the economy stupid. This is hurting the GOP you've got to admit that.

[jaime]

Webb 1,172,671 50
1,165,440 49%

[jaime]

Webb 1,172,671 50%
Allen 1,165,440 49%

[seekeronos]

There needs to be much more intense scrutiny on Obama's connections to the Fannie/Freddie collapse via his collusion with the Congressional Black Caucus to force the extension of mortgage to people (predominantly minorities) with bad credit histories/high risk ratings.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usvG-s_Ssb0

The market collapse is every bit as much the fault of the Democrats as it is the Republicans... the cold waves of the ocean blue show no mercy - neither to the ships that slip beneath its waves, nor the rats who try to escape.

[SacTownMan]

I have never seen so much bragging/whining over poll numbers.

With 40+ days left they will move back and forth at least a dozen more times.

There are two major tests upcoming. One will be the performances in the debates. Second is the status of the economy.

Xerxes regaining the lead is more aligned with the economic shock of the past two weeks than any fantasy of the left that Palin is a drag to the ticket. Try and sell that crap to those 50,000+ Floridians that turned out for her the other day.

Lets see how things look after Friday nights debate. I for one am looking forward to seeing McCain clean the trolls clock on foriegn policy.

Now I will just have to make it through the uhs and ahs from the stuttering Xerxes.

I can see the MSNBC/CNN comments after where we will hear again about Barry's "nuanced" responses that the rest of us will say WTF did they see that I didn't.

But the VP debate should be fun with Uncle Brain Tumor explaining the whole 1929 President Roosevelt Speech on TV comment. Is this guy really this stupid? The idea of him being #2 and San Fran Nan #3 behind Xerxes should scare the crap out of everybody regardless of party loyalty!

[jaime]

Ouch...

Fox News has Obama +6.

Another outlier from the evil liberal media establish.

[jaime]

establisment.

I should preview more often.

[seekeronos]

Speaking of polls...

http://seekeronos.blogsome.com/wp-admin/images/Pollzilla2.jpg

[seekeronos]

And I'll conclude the spammery of my artwork with this:

http://seekeronos.blogsome.com/images/Baldwin_Mockup3.jpg

:)

[joeb]

Since Obama now is benefitting from the economic crisis in the polls it is to the Democrats advantage to keep the crisis going as long as possible or at least until the election is over. So look for the Democrats to offer nothing but obstruction on the Wall Street economic crisis. And to block any and all efforts to fix the problems.
Also I suspect many McCain supporters are like me and do not respond to pollsters who knock on doors or call on telephones. I live in Va. and they call and I ignore them. I tell them nothing.

[jharp]

I'm sure this is going to help McCain in the polls. What a great day!

"John McCain, whose ads skewer Barack Obama for his "celebrity" status, has his own close ties to show business, the new issue of Us Weekly reports exclusively.

The 72-year-old was recently made TV-ready by makeup artist Tifanie White who's worked on So You Think You Can Dance and American Idol.

McCain paid the 2002 beauty-school grad $5,583.43 for her services, according to the Federal Election Commission."

And best yet. Mr. 24% approval rating President is going on prime time tonight to beg for a bailout for the millionaires who got us into this mess.

A great day for our great country. The GOP is crumbling right before our eyes.

[jaime]

"Since Obama now is benefitting from the economic crisis in the polls it is to the Democrats advantage to keep the crisis going as long as possible"

Right, because the nation's economic collapse is due solely to the Democratic Party's slim, unworkable majority in Congress.

Besides, isn't it in McCain's best interest for a terrorist attack or military crisis (preferrably one in a country that has a McCain advisor on its payroll) to occur?

Charlie Black even went so far as to publically state that a terrorist attack "would be a big advantage to him."

[jharp]

Too dam funny. Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't there something in The National Enquirer about John Edwards too? How'd that turn out?

SARAH PALIN LOVER REVEALED!

In a world exclusive The NATIONAL ENQUIRER names GOP VP Candidate Sarah Palin's secret lover!

No less than three members of the man’s family including one by sworn affidavit have claimed that Sarah Palin engaged in an extramarital affair with hus­band Todd’s former business partner, Brad Hanson.

These sources have named Hanson as Palin’s secret love, and say their affair nearly wrecked both their marriages

http://www.nationalenquirer.com/national_enquirer_world_exclusive_sarah_palins_secret_lover_revealed/celebrity/65481

Do ya suppose this will rally the wingnut base?

[jaime]

"and they call and I ignore them."

The odds of you getting called for a poll once are astronomical. The odds of you getting called for polling multiple times is near impossible.

It's either the biggest coincidence in polling history, or you're a liar. The odds of the latter are much greater.

[joeb]

You don't live in Va. do you jharp? The Democrats are polling door to door. Calling every telephone number in the book. How old are you? You sound like a teenager in studyhall at recess.

[joeb]

Sorry about that. I meant that message above for jaime as well as jharp.

[jaime]

"pollsters who knock on doors..."

"The Democrats are polling door to door"

That's known as "canvassing" and the fact that you in a swing state have been hit up multiple times is proof positive that Obama's ground game is light years beyond McCain.

Those Democrats knocking on your door means McCain is losing.

[jaime]

Also proof John "Craps" McCain is losing.

He's chickening out of the 90 minute foreign policy debate to "fix" the fundamentals of the economy up until two weeks ago were strong.

[seekeronos]

Hmmm. I smell the distinct presence of a certain Hungarian Banker... by the name of Georg Schwartz a.k.a. George Soros.

I wonder how much he paid these "informants"/smear merchants to "come forward" just right now...

[jharp]

"You don't live in Va. do you jharp?"

No, sir.

Indiana. And McCain is on the ropes here. Pretty funny to watch as about half the state still thinks Obama is a Muslim. And the confederate flag crown is not happy.

And Dems haven't won here since 1964.

I am really enjoying it.

[seekeronos]

"--- And McCain is on the ropes here. ---"

So that means more than half of Indiana is voting Democratic - Socialist?

I am shocked an amazed...

[SacTownMan]

Hey the latest poll numbers from the street show that 9 out of 10 crack heads would rather get high with Barry than McCain.

Brother Seek it is funny to see these lingering trolls come back to life every now and then. How many weeks were we "cut and paste" Harpo free. And without Lame-O lately to boot. But there is always the newest troll "Dude" J-me pulling up the rear.

I wonder if Xerxes' new poll numbers include all "57 states".

[jharp]

Nice to see you mention my name, SacTown. And I hope you are well.

Things ain't looking too good, huh?

Is this the George Bush ownership society we're witnessing? Where the federal government owns AIG, the investment banks, and the worthless mortgage backed securities whose profits are now in the hands of thieves?

Good God. The GOP made an absolute disaster of our country.

[jaime]

Nice to see you mention my name, SacTown.

I don't think you could ever "see" SacTown. He's surrounded by a cloud of pungent, dark grey I5 Cowshit.

[seekeronos]

"--- Good God. The GOP made an absolute disaster of our country. ---"

A lie, this is.

The GOP may have hung this nation on a noose, but the Dems did more than their share to make the rope.