Probably not, given the internals. Gallup has Obama at 50% for the first time. McCain is at 42%.
Going behind the numbers we find this: Non-Hispanic White voters favor McCain 52 - 37. Hispanics favor Obama 58 - 31.
Non-Hispanic blacks support Obama 93 - 2.
I guess the media is correct, this election is all about race for some people, after all.
A snapshot poll from 2004:
The Joint Center for Economic and Political Studies, a leading think tank on issues affecting African-Americans, released a poll Tuesday that found 18% of black Americans would vote for President Bush. That's twice the share of black votes Bush drew in 2000, though far lower than Kerry's 69%.
Actually, based upon recent results ... poor old Barack could be under-performing versus Gore with black females. Heh Seriously though - take a look at the support by race, again. If Obama wins, he'll have been elected by Hispanics and blacks. He's losing among white voters 37 - 52. So much for healing, huh?
Gore won 94.0% of the Black Female vote.
Kerry won 90.0% of the Black Female vote (4.00% decline).
4.25% (net) of Black Female Gore voters switched to Bush.
Gore won 87.6% of the Black Male vote.
Kerry won 86.9% of the Black Male vote (.76% decline).
0.87% (net) of Black Male Gore voters switched to Bush.


I stopped in a store after dropping the kids off at their school (in a black neighborhood on the South Side of Chicago). Obama wear was on nearly all. I was wondering what would happen if I wore some not necessisarly anti-Obama shirt (I don't have a death wish), but merely advocating the other candidate? I've lived here long enough to know it would be perceived as "racist" and that people would feel free to tell me so.
Posted by: dm60462 | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 03:05 PM
Why does your post infer that Obama is underperforming with Black females, when, you know, you don't give us anything demonstating this one way or another?
Posted by: Totally Heterosexual Conservative | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 03:10 PM
I think that the angry old man would have picked up a lot of support from his black 'friends' with, you know, voting against the MLK holiday and all.
Posted by: chris | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 03:21 PM
"If Obama wins, he'll have been elected by Hispanics and blacks."
Does this scare you Dan?
Posted by: Spartan112 | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 03:46 PM
Yeah, Dan, because, you know, the MLK holiday vote and all is the single most important vote that has ever taken place. You know. With the black people, you know. You know, the brothers and sisters.
Posted by: templar knight | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 03:47 PM
If you're black in America, your life is "all about race". You report these numbers as if there was no actual substantive reason why blacks might see Obama as a better choice than McCain - and as if whites' voting for white candidates is exactly the same thing, grounded on the same history and social context, as blacks' voting for black candidates. To believe that conditions - including conditions affecting voting choices - are the same for blacks as a group and whites as a group in America today is the most disingenuous self-delusion; to pretend that history for the two groups is the same is rank racism. And to imagine that those factors don't or shouldn't influence voting is absurd.
Posted by: Kevin T. Keith | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 03:54 PM
"Does this scare you Dan?"
Yeah, Dan, and if McCain wins, he'll have been elected by whites. That scares the hell out of Sparty.
Posted by: templar knight | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 03:55 PM
It will be beyond entertaining to see a black man take away the rednecks' guns. You know, like unwed teen mothers, you know.
Posted by: chris | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 04:02 PM
Bullshit, Kevin. You white liberals are sickening to me. There are plenty of black people who are doing great in America, and they don't think "all about race" all the time, and their lives don't revolve around race. You white liberals just want it to be that way. Go ply your bull elsewhere.
Posted by: templar knight | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 04:03 PM
I wonder why the life of blacks in America is "all about race"...oh wait, no I don't. It is "all about race" because for the last 40 years they have been told that AmeriKKKa is a racist country, that all white people are racist unless they fall all over themselves to show favoritism to blacks, that all failures, slights, problems and challenges for blacks are the result of racism, that it is a veritable miracle for a black person to succeed in this country and that because of all this blacks need to stick together, even when that includes turning a blind eye to rampant criminality that preys on their own communities.
And all this in the face of millions of blacks having moved into the middle class, billions spent on education, special programs all designed for blacks, the removal of any and all barriers to jobs and education and the insertion of racial preferences that favor blacks over other groups.
You might think, looking at the huge strides made by American blacks in the last 40 years that they would be thankfull and thrilled to live in a country that had bent over backwards to attone for the slavery of 150 years ago and the jim crow laws of 50 years ago.
But, that's not how it worked out. How it worked out is that many if not most blacks in this country harbor deep seated anger toward white people and toward their own country as a result of the lies they've been fed by liberal do gooders and radicals like the Rev. Wright.
Posted by: anon | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 04:07 PM
Hm..you must have forgotten a recent Supreme Court decision, and stare decisis, and all that, you know, chrissy. LOL.
Posted by: templar knight | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 04:07 PM
"You might think, looking at the huge strides made by American blacks in the last 40 years that they would be thankfull and thrilled to live in a country that had bent over backwards to attone for the slavery of 150 years ago and the jim crow laws of 50 years ago."
Please send your address and I will get the American blacks to send you a big thank you card for 'attoning' for all that nasty slavery and stuff. See, they should be thanking you!!
Feel better now?
Posted by: chris | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 04:16 PM
Hmmmm black in America or Black in Kenya...ask Barrys brother....
Posted by: JustOneMan | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 04:18 PM
McCain / Palin:
America First - Except for when we were Alaskan Separatists!!
Experience is no Longer Relevant!!
Reform we can Recommend that Others Engage in!!
Promoting Family Values for People who aren't Us!!
POW!! Downes Syndrome!!
Posted by: Totally Heterosexual Conservative | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 04:45 PM
Oh dear, why is Ms. Palin trying to bog down the trooper-gate probe?
http://www.adn.com/front/story/513137.html
Posted by: Totally Heterosexual Conservative | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 04:57 PM
Soooooo...if a black person doesn't vote Obama would they be racist? What if another minority didn't vote for him, would they be racist too? What about mixed race people who don't vote Obama; half racist or full?
What about a woman not voting for Palin, sexist? Transexuals who are now men but used to be women, ummm, used to be sexist? How about transgendered...closet sexists if they dress as a male while voting?
What if, stay with me now, what if a mixed race transsexual (man to woman) transgendered (man who used to be a woman dressing like a man) person were to vote for the Green Party, would they be sexist racists?
And we still have the age factor to deal with, damn ageists!
This liberal identity politics thingie is exhausting. Oh well, I suppose I should go along with the 93% of black voters who are not (NO EFFIN WAY) not not not voting for Obama just because he's black.
Posted by: Obamessiah™ | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 05:14 PM
99% of democrats thought Biden was a poor choice for President. Why the change?
Posted by: Riff | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 05:22 PM
What about rednecks voting for people with toothbrushes and bank accounts?
Posted by: chris | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 05:22 PM
"Please send your address and I will get the American blacks to send you a big thank you card for 'attoning' for all that nasty slavery and stuff. See, they should be thanking you!!"
Hey Sock Puppet why don't you send your address and I will connect you with a couple of Marine buddies that are just dying to meet up with you!
What an asshat!
Allah Akbar Bro!
Posted by: SacTownmMan | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 05:28 PM
What about liberal men with dick-breath voting for veterans and people who aren't scared by guns...forgot that one.
Posted by: Obamessiah™ | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 05:31 PM
"What about a woman not voting for Palin, sexist?"
Evidently, according to the GOPer gal talking to Larry King and James Carville last night, not voting for Ms. Palin, IS sexist. No I don't have the video, but I'm sure someone does. Criticism of her is criticism of ALL mothers.
It's so funny that the GOPers started all of this crap and now they whine when it all gets tossed back at them. Ms. Palin will be out by the end of the week. Good luck with LIEberman or Mittens.
Posted by: Totally Heterosexual Conservative | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 05:32 PM
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Is there any other kind of liberal man?
Posted by: Riff | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 05:32 PM
Ok, I can see I forgot quite a few:
What about conspiratorial libs voting for people who don't believe that Cheney controls the weather and oil prices from his underground bunker complex?
Posted by: Obamessiah™ | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 05:35 PM
Funny comments. :-)
No, of course you don't have the video, strange thing though, it was Obama who first broached the subject of his race and continues to do so now.
Paraphrased: "I don't look like the other guys on the bills".
Posted by: Richard Peter Wiener III | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 05:37 PM
Please send your address and I will get the American blacks to send you a big thank you card for 'attoning' for all that nasty slavery and stuff. See, they should be thanking you!!
---------------------------------------------------
Your comment doesn't really make much sense. It is a fact that millions of blacks have succeeded over the last 40 years and it appears to me that there is very, very little in terms of gratitude for living in a country that has bent, broken and reformed rules to benefit them. As far as slavery, yeah, so what big deal. Every empire if not every country has enslaved somebody who they deemed inferior for whatever reason, but, strangely, its only America blacks who have been so allegedly destroyed by it that 150 years later its still trotted out as an excuse for any number of pathologies. Me, I'm tired of hearing how racist this country is and I'm tired of dealing with black people who have a chip on their shoulder, and I'm tired of hearing the same old excuses for the failures in the black community. The only benefit to an Obama presidency would be that it might finally tamp down the ridiculous obsession with race and the ongoing false contention that all the problems of black people are because of white society.
Posted by: Anon | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 05:38 PM
"Liberal man?"
That's mutually exclusive. LOL.
Posted by: templar knight | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 05:42 PM
What about effeminate liberal men voting for people who don't faint at the thought of manual labor?
Posted by: Obamessiah™ | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 05:44 PM
What about dainty liberal men voting for a man who doesn't sit down to pee?
Posted by: Obamessiah™ | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 05:47 PM
"--- liberal men with dick-breath ---"
Maybe those kind that dwell in the West Village.
Posted by: Longshanks | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 05:48 PM
Heavens, such anger and homoerotic imagery from the party of Jesus and Larry Craig! It is reassuring to know that America no longer needs your lazy, redneck kind. In case you haven't heard, we have Mexicans now and they can do whatever it is that your ilk used to do faster and for less. Thank you John McCain!!
Posted by: BobInStamford | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 07:02 PM
--Oh dear, why is Ms. Palin trying to bog down the trooper-gate probe?
Hey Stoner, do you even read the shit you link? See the final paragraph of the article.
"We don't have any sex. We don't have any drugs. And there's no blue dress. Nor are there any shady real estate deals here," Van Flein said. "In the big picture, I think people are going to be disappointed that this is not a scandal."
Here's your problem.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/09/palin_has_pushed_the_left_over.html
Just another liberal loser.
Posted by: ET | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 07:02 PM
The real problem for the libs? Bush just sent a team of experts to assist the Palin team with debate prep for the October vp debates.
Another dumbshit meme "she'll be gone in a week!" tossed in the sewer with the rest of the libs.
Posted by: Obamessiah™ | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 07:25 PM
Oh oh, sounds like BobofromStamford is still pissed that his Walmart greeter job was given to a Mexican.
Don't worry dude, as long as your aged mother doesn't start renting out the basement to someone who can actually pay their own bills, things will be fine for you. Hang in there brutha'!
Posted by: Obamessiah™ | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 07:32 PM
Oh no!! The Decider sent a TEAM of EXPERTS to assist the MOTHER OF THE YEAR!!! Do tell patriot, is this the same TEAM that has been so successful in assisting the Decider? His considered, measured stuttering and stammering is so very PRESIDENTIAL.
Posted by: BobInStamford | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 08:35 PM
"Liberal man?"
That's mutually exclusive. LOL."
O lord temp...now one's party affiliation has something to do with their manhood? Tell it to Jim Webb...hell, you wouldn't tell it to me.
Posted by: Spartan112 | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 08:41 PM
The poor (especially poor blacks) have been voting democrat for 50 years and they're still poor. Democrats will change nothing that effects the welfare slavery of blacks and the blacks should know it by now. I'm beginning to believe what one professor got in trouble for saying, blacks are born stupid.
Posted by: Scrapiron | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 11:46 PM
Someone just said that millions of blacks are successful. May be, but why are 90+ % of them still on welfare? Because the democrats told them they couldn't do any better, but we'll give you welfare?
Posted by: Scrapiron | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 at 11:51 PM
Never mind the wonderful talk above about blacks being born stupid (it's amazing how much racism floats by without a word at right-wing websites).... but, please, what gives with all the he-man talk about Marines being dispatched to beat up liberals, and how liberal males are mostly gay, and blah, blah, blah....???
Do you right-wingers know how weird you sound to people who are middle of the road?
Didn't know that Marines are famous for smashing the first-amendment rights out of liberal mouths, along with their teeth. (If true, I can only venture that such quick-fisted Marines are a little too pumped up on groupthink and the World According to Fox News.)
Didn't know that the GOP, whose recent sex scandals tend to have a gay-edge (as opposed to the sex scandals produced by Bill Clinton and John Edwards), should feel so free in casting gay aspersions on the Dems.
Didn't know that the GOP, many of whose leading lights, absent the truly heroic McCain and ex-grunt Tom Ridge, hid under the bed during Vietnam (see Bush, Cheney, Bolton, Limbaugh, Newt, ad nasueum), should wave too many American Flags in the faces of wounded, decorated Vietnam veterans like Kerry, Webb, Cleland, etc., etc.
I know plenty of "liberals" with old Silver Stars, Bronze Stars, and Purple Hearts.
To paraphrase Spartan 112, tell all your crap about Dems being unpatriotic and gay to James Webb.
Want me to cite the specific's of Webb's Navy Cross?
Keith Nolan
Weldon Spring, MO
Posted by: KeithNolan | Wednesday, September 03, 2008 at 12:06 PM
Ah, you mean this Jim Webb?
http://flapsblog.com/2006/10/27/senator-george-allen-watch-webb-says-boys-penis-in-fathers-mouth-not-a-sexual-act/
Or this Jim Webb?
http://www.rightwingnews.com/archives/week_2006_09_24.PHP#006509
The Jim Webb who wrote pedophilic novels about fathers who fellate their sons?
That heroic defender of all things socialist / liberal / democratic (take your pick, they are nearly all the same these days) ...?
Posted by: seekeronos | Thursday, September 04, 2008 at 12:20 PM
Holy smokes, Seekeronos, you mean to say that James Webb's novels about young men from rough backgrounds who join the Marines and fight in Vietnam actually contain some rough sexual language and situations.
Excuse me, I'm gonna faint.....
In any event, James Webb never "wrote pedophilic novels about fathers who fellate their sons," though he did include a scene in one of his novels about a Vietnam veteran who was shocked to see a father kiss his little boy's penis as an act of affection while revisiting Asia. You know, culture shock and all that.
But, really, what is your point? That James Webb is gay? That Democrats are gay? That James Webb was not a heroic Marine officer in Vietnam who earned the Navy Cross, Silver Star, Bronze Star, and two Purple Hearts?
The psycho-sexual babble from the GOP about the gayness of the Democrats is just off-putting and weird, in addition to being inaccurate. What kind of demons hide in the brains of those right-wingers who spread this nonsense?!
Posted by: KeithNolan | Friday, September 05, 2008 at 03:30 PM