Obama +7 In Colorado Doesn't Quite Add Up

Jeralyn at Talk Left is citing a PPP (D) poll as proof that Palin is tanking for McCain in Colorado. But the internals just don't add up.

The Public Policy Project poll of Colorado voters I wrote about last night is out. Obama leads McCain, 51% to 44%. Gov. Sarah Palin is tanking his ticket.

No doubt Colorado is becoming more purple. But the PPP poll sample was this:

Democrat ........................................................ 40%
Republican...................................................... 36%
Other............................................................... 24%

From the Colorado Sec. of State in March, 2008:

Democrats--893,472          or 30.6%

Republicans--1,015,993      or 34.8%

Unaffiliateds--1,008,675     or 34.5%

They also seem to fail to take into account the aging nature of Colorado demographics. The number of those sampled over 65 is 15%. While only one point lower than the number in 2004, along with an influx of Hispanics, the population of Colorado is aging. That's a sub-group that favors McCain.

True, McCain is struggling in Colorado due to demographic changes - he's probably down by from 3-4. But as a new Quinnipiac poll shows, it isn't Palin's fault. Interesting aside that Men are split on Palin as a Prez but women would prefer Biden. Still, Presidential elections are rarely if ever decided on who the VP is. History has demonstrated that time and time, again. The better question might be, what is Jeralyn's problem with Palin - both being liberated women and all? Maybe it's because Palin simply made different choices? I thought choice was what it was all about. Just a thought, anyway.

McCain's selection of Gov. Palin as a running mate is a good choice, voters say 55 - 38 percent, and Obama's selection of Sen. Biden is a good choice, voters say 52 - 32 percent.

But by a 49 - 42 percent margin, voters would rather see Biden as President. Women pick Biden 52 - 37 percent while men go 46 percent to Palin and 45 percent Biden.

Comments

[mary]

Last night a guy I work with said that he has been watching the political campaigns for over thirty years and he has never seen polling as bizarre as what we are seeing today. The guy was so completely annoyed that he was printing out results from previous presidential elections and they were strewn all over his desk. I suspect, when he has completed analyzing everything I will have much to share with you all as I'm certain he may be sharing it with all of us (whether we like it or not..lol).

[jharp]

Date Palin Favorability

9-9 41/38

9-21 38/47

She lost 9 points in 12 days. And you think this doesn't mean anything? While the Palin pick was bold it was also horrible.

Give me a break. A PTA hockey Mom, mayor of 7,000, governor for 18 months of 600,000 ready to lead the greatest country in the world?

[Lala]

How do the folks in Ohio and W. Va and other coal states feel about this statement?

During a campaign stop in Ohio, Biden was approached by an anti-pollution campaigner about clean coal and Biden said...

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0908/Biden_No_coal_plants_here_in_America.html?showall

"No coal plants here in America. Build them, if they're going to build them, over there (China). Make them clean. We’re not supporting clean coal"

[SacTownMan]

Harpo says,

"Give me a break. A PTA hockey Mom, mayor of 7,000, governor for 18 months of 600,000 ready to lead the greatest country in the world?"

Lets compare

Palin / Xerxes

PTA Hockey Mom! / Crack head and admitted drug user!

Mayor of 7000! / Community Organizer and buddies with Ayers!

Governor of Alaska / Voted "present" 170 times!

Running for VP! / Running for POTUS!

Your right, there is a question of the ability of your god king to lead this country but it's okay because even with the troll slime campaign against Palin she is still more qualified to be POTUS than Xerxes!

She's a lot less likely to suffer from an acid flashback too!

But he does give a good speech from the teleprompter and he has a real future in German politics closing for punk rock bands!

[Eve]

Unfortunately, the Rocky Mountain News article you cite about age is totally misleading. The fine print of the article is that the population is aging in four specific swing counties in Colorado. But the state overall has been getting younger. If you look at the county by county data at the end of the article, most counties are getting younger. Colorado's electoral votes are decided on a state-wide basis, not county by county.

[jaime]

These other polls were taken this week:

Quinnipiac/WSJ Obama 49 McCain 45
Insider Advantage Obama 51 McCain 41

Quinnipiac shows more people less likely to vote because of Palin. Sorry. Most people don't like that she's too chickenshit to answer questions without holding Sean Hannity's hand.

[MarkJ]

jharp,

*Channeling "Escape from New York"* Damn, you're back. I thought you were dead.

[North Dallas Thirty]

Quinnipiac shows more people less likely to vote because of Palin.

A bit of advice; don't cite a poll when Riehl already has, especially when it makes you look like an idiot for misquoting it.

And as for answering questions, I love how these Democrat partisans stamp their feet and whine that she's giving the finger to the press that has been caught lying about her time and again. Perhaps they should explain why they and the Obama campaign have been so busy trying to spread lies about her, such as the claim that Trig was not her child.

[funky chicken]

So, now the Charlie Gibson interview on ABC never happened?

Lovely Obama supporters you have here.

[Lala]

Has Obama ever held a press conference where he actually answered questions? Other than saying, I'll get back to you on that.

[Karen Schell]

SacTownMan:
"She's a lot less likely to suffer from an acid flashback too!"

You're assuming The One has left his nose candy days and ways behind. We don't know if/when/how he managed to overcome his problems with his drug addiction issue. It's just yet another one of those questions the Obama-tanked media dare not ask or look into, as it is with Obama's close ties to the terrorist Ayers.

[Jaded]

Let's see Palin pulled in around 60K in FL the other day and Obama 20K and in Green Bay McCain/Palin filled a 10K outlet last week Barack 6K yeah he ain't filling those stadiums anymore....the luster has moved over to the pitbull in a skirt wearing lipstick....so liberal haters drop dead!

[SacTownMan]

Jaded says,

"yeah he ain't filling those stadiums anymore...."

What, no more free rock concerts? Maybe those Germans could throw another party for him!

[seekeronos]

Colorado has a few major liberal population centres (or at least, areas where the demographics typically skew heavily in favour for the liberals), namely:

- Denver (mix of urban poor Mestizos/welfare recipients, though nowhere near as blighted as Detroit - along with a bevy of universities and colleges which are typically dominated by extremely leftist/Marxist faculties, rotting out the minds of our politically impressionable youth)

- Boulder (a veritable garden patch of patchouli-scented Birkenstock-wearing hippies, along with Colorado University: a veritable liberal stronghold)

- Fort Collins (somewhat less lefty, but still deep in the John Kerry/Hillary mould -- Colorado State University is a bit more of a "party school" on the one hand, and on the other, a bit more down to earth, as it focuses more on hard sciences and its engineering, pre-med and pre-vet programmes than the tree-hugger potsmokers that tend to frequent CU. Plus, there are a lot of farmers and ranchers up that way who tend to bring things a bit more close to the centre of the mainstream)

The only major urban are I that trends conservatively that I can think of would by Colorado Springs (HQ for Focus on the Family, the Navigators, and a number of megachurches).

Otherwise, the mountain towns and farm/ranching communities (Greeley, Grand Junction, Glennwood Springs, etc.) range from moderately (McCain) conservative to mad-dog John Birch paleo-conservatives (like yours truly) who support Ron Paul or Chuck Baldwin (btw, Dr. Paul endorsed Dr. Baldwin yesterday -- although that will only likely result in an uptick from 0.12% of the pop. vote to maybe 0.15%...)

In the end, that makes Colorado pretty well balanced - washing out to perhaps centre to centre-left slightly favouring Obama. You can thank 15 years of ceaseless "Californication" for the influx of all those San Fransicko and Lost Angeles liberals.

We'll have to see how the Obama-Biden Gaffetastic Dancing Machine does over the next few weeks - Coloraddy be a-tossup state this year!

[Spartan112]

"The better question might be, what is Jeralyn's problem with Palin - both being liberated women and all? Maybe it's because Palin simply made different choices? I thought choice was what it was all about. Just a thought, anyway."

ISn't she allowed to dislike her based on the facts? Maybe she thinks she's underqualified or disagrees with her on major policy positions or maybe she just doesn't know what she thinks about a number of things given the lack of access.

[edward268]

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