Is It Now Hillary's Nomination To Lose?

With all due respect to some smart folks, like Jonah Goldberg, who just wrote Hillary's epitaph and Allahpundit, who suggests Hillary's still a lost cause - I think they're wrong. And there are several good reasons why.

While the nomination is certainly still very much up for grabs, it's Obama who has the most problems, now - while Hillary is poised to re-emerge in a big way. Listen to her at that previous link. That's a woman who now has something she needed, something Obama still lacks - some serious scars of her own and, like it or not, the gravitas that goes with it in Democrat circles. And as I stated, she has much more going for her now, as well.

The woman just won three of four contests - Ohio by 12 points - Texas by 3 and Rhode Island by 18 - according to CBS, with Supers she has 1655 Delegates to Obama's 1710, only 55 back and you think she's done ... with re-votes likely in Florida and Michigan, meaning there's actually still almost 1,000 or so pledged delegates up for grabs, on top of plenty of Super Delegates? Do the Math.

Now, look at something else that happened in Texas last night. It's extremely important for reasons that aren't obvious at first. Obama may well win the Caucus portion of that screwy state by a few points - but as of now, less than 40,000 people showed up. Hillary won the state primary by 3 points or over 100,000 votes with almost 3 Million cast. Along with having won many Red States no Democrat will carry in the Fall, Obama has done well in caucus states. Texas' dual system exposes the caucus system for the weak and somewhat undemocratic approach that it actually is. Hillary can use that argument very effectively on those precious Super Delegates and she'll have a very good point, because of her also having won most of the major states any Dem will need in the Fall CA, NY, NJ, and several more.

And what's this? Two-thousand, six hundred and counting Rezko stories? There were only 800 as of yesterday and it's only the third day of the trial. Up until now, it's been Hillary struggling to get her message out cleanly due to negative distractions, now it's Obama's turn - and he didn't fare real well in his baptism by media fire with that "I answered 8 questions, guys" presser, now did he?

Nope, not at all. And we all know what happens when the media smells either blood, or simply a vulnerable prey. They built him up from almost nothing - not even a real record of bi-partisanship in a too short Senate career to match his lofty rhetoric. Do you think they won't turn in a minute and bring him down just as fast? This is the media we're talking about. It's what they do.

Obama now has the NAFTA mess going, in which he didn't play it straight. He failed to distance himself from Farrakhan in a debate before additional prompting from Hillary that showed him up. You really think this guy is now a lock? Not so fast.

Then think about what else you know of the Clintons and their loyal troops. They've been the dominant force within the Democrat political establishment for almost two decades. You only get to take away that kind of power when you pry it from someone's cold, dead hands. And despite outspending her by 3 or 4 to one in two major states, the upstart Obama failed miserably last night in his bid to kill his competition off. That alone with get him a handful of prominent negative headlines: Does Obama really have what it takes?

But you don't have to take my word for it. Read the latest headlines, or watch the media sharks begin to gather, as below at CBS. Certainly Obama can win. I don't doubt that. But make no mistake, the pressure and the attention is all on Obama in a way it hasn't been before. If he wants the nomination now, he's going to have to earn it. And it's going to require something more than just another real fine speech.

Analysis: Buyer's Hesitation For Dems?

(CBS) This analysis was written by CBSNews.com senior political editor Vaughn Ververs.

Hillary Clinton did something last night she had not been able to do since New Hampshire - stop Barack Obama's momentum in the Democratic primary contest. Or at least blunt it.

By winning three out of the four primary contests Tuesday night, Clinton almost certainly saved her campaign to fight on in a contest that now looks likely to stretch at least another seven weeks - until Pennsylvania votes.

Clinton can now boast of two more wins in big states, having carried Ohio and Texas (as well as Rhode Island), but she did nothing to erase Obama's sizeable delegate lead. In fact, she may have lost ground by the time all the delegates are awarded.

It's hard to see a path to the 2,025 delegate threshold needed to win the nomination for either delegate without the support of a sizable number of super delegates. So, the argument will rage on, muddied enormously by last night's results.

Comments

[LOL]

you're kind of a fool you know that? When the dust settles, you'll realize that Hillary only won the night by 2-5 delegates, i.e. it was basically a draw.

[Dan Riehl]

Geez LOL, you must be an Obama girl. What's wrong, are you losing your religion, or just your messiah, you idiot?

[WAHOO WILLIE]

"Hillary only won the night by 2-5 delegates."

Yeah Dan you idiot, I bet you think a candidate only has to have ONE MORE delegate than the other to get a nomination. Two to five more aint sh**

[seekeronos]

Heh. The Harpy has just popped her emergency supply of hormones... she smells blood and is out to get it.

I like how (Don) Imus puts it:

"The Clintons take the fight right on out into the parking lot, and will follow you home if need be."

Nope, the IJN Yamato was a very, very, very, difficult ship to sink too.

Obama's not out either, but I think Pennsylvania will be the deciding factor for either of them, all other things being equal.

Of course, the blowback from the Rezko case and any other dirt that surfaces could torpedo him nicely.

I'm not sure who would be better (for McCain) to face in the general: a narrowly victorious, still empty-suited Obama who got by by plying the race card and the funny-middle-name-you-can't-make-say card with might and main, or the Policy Wonk Harpy with her rasping voice proclaiming victory after nearly stepping on her own testicles in this race?

[WAHOO WILLIE]

"Obama's not out either,"

I'm thinking the real fight is whose name is going on the national campaign card first. When you look at the numbers, the closeness of all these results, the DNC would have an embarrassing slam dunk in the election.

[templar knight]

Now, chris, calm down. If seek had said bitch you might have a point, but you're overeaching, as usual. And you sound a little jealous about seek's woman. Curious, very curious. I bet you'd be a study for a psychiatrist, chris.

[templar knight]

Top of the morning, willie. I'm about to leave for work, but just wanted to say hey and see what was going on this morning, especially since the messiah took a hit last night, predicted by the pundit Dan I might add. Will check in later. Have a good one, all, even you, chris.

[syn]

I look forward to the Democrat Party of Identity Politicking continuing to blow up their party using their very own Multi-cultural bombs; when the air is cleared in the convention center there won't be a top Democrat candidate left to run the rest of the race to victory.

[IslamoLlama]

"--I look forward to the Democrat Party of Identity Politicking continuing to blow up their party using their very own Multi-cultural bombs;--"

Shorter collective right wing noise machine: This can only be bad for the Democrats!

You guys have been saying that since '05. Record turnouts nationwide with 2-1, 5-1, even 8-1 Dem-to-Rep voting ratios, and the Democratic Party is imploding? I wonder if Democrats talked this way in the summer of '80 or '94? My prediction? After landslide elections in the fall with veto-proof majorities in both houses and the White House all but locked up for a generation, I'll come back here to listen to Dan talk about how the Democrats are totally screwed.

[Dan Riehl]

Agreed WW - comments removed.

[WAHOO WILLIE]

"A dire news report from overseas would sober up moderates who know how important the job is."

Like saber rattling in the banana republics? Do you know that Chavez oil can only be refined in the US. Odd little factoid ain'it?

[LOL]

"Yeah Dan you idiot, I bet you think a candidate only has to have ONE MORE delegate than the other to get a nomination. Two to five more aint sh**"

Are you dumb or something? Obama has about a 100 delegate lead. So yeah, 2-5 more isn't shit.