Why Romney Has Some Clout

Via Hot Air to Ambinder, Romney's CPAC speech is being termed as major by the campaign.

Zwick wrote that Romney's speech at tomorrow's Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington will be "major."

Unless Romney suddenly does a 180, he has some very powerful players lined up behind him. All the focus is on how much of his own money Romney has spent. He's also been the single biggest fund raiser. That means plenty of the traditional Republican money machine is behind him. One quick aside, don't forget that's a quality McCain desperately needs. But put aside McCain for the moment.

As is being speculated, with Huckabee and Romney in it, fiscal and social conservatives, McCain as a one legged stool (h/t Mark Levin), likely can't get enough votes to claim the nomination before the convention. You've got the other two legs pushing back against him.

I would speculate that Romney's "major" speech will be along the lines of, no, I may not be Reagan, but I am ready and willing to carry on under his banner. Unsaid will be, without running a scorched earth, but an earnest campaign against McCain. Whether it's this year, or in four, that's a valuable commodity itself in Republican politics, especially with an already established national stage. Via The Astute Bloggers, Mitt's national numbers are better than McCains.

Not only are there a dozen things that could happen over 2-3 months to drastically shake up this year's campaign, as the second largest delegate holder in a brokered convention, Romney becomes central to Republican politics - think VP, head of the RNC, or a few other influential spots. The cabinet, maybe ... but that might be least desirable of all. It isn't clear there will ever be a McCain cabinet, no matter what.

The particulars are going to have to play out. But the good news for conservatives at this point is, we still have a dog in this fight. And don't rule out Romney's many prominent talking head endorsements. They came on board later in the race for understandable reasons. But the longer this thing plays, the more they will be heard.

Tomorrow at CPAC should be a blast! With all the candidates, as well as Bush and Cheney, I can't wait! Whoop! Whoop!

Comments

[Roy Mustang]

"GOP DELEGATE COUNT IS MISLEADING: Mitt Romney has carried a MAJORITY in 6 (six) states. McCain did even NOT carry a MAJORITY IN HIS OWN HOME STATE."

Thanks Dan and Astute Blogger, I haven't laughed that hard in a while. Too bad the national election isn't a caucus, right?

[Brainster]

It's never over! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

Sheesh, come on guys. Romney would need to get better than 76% of the delegates remaining, and there are only a couple Winner Take All states left. Try not to become a parody of yourselves.

[Dan Riehl]

I don't know who's doing the parody here. I didn't suggest he would get enough delegates. Do you understand brokered convention? Apparently not. Nice try, though, guys. Better luck next time.

[Roy Mustang]

Brainster, Romeny needs 95% of the delegates remaining to win.

McCain only needs around half of the remaining delegates to win.

[Nik]

Most of the remaining delegates will be allocated proportionally. Mitt has already shown that he can win states with solid majorities, while McCain struggles to crack 35%. If Huckabee remains in the race, no candidate will have a majority of candidates.

If Huckabee leaves the race, and Romney manages to convert those supports, he could well catch 60-70% of the delegates. Either way, it is unlikely that McCain will have a majority at the convention..

[docweasel]

First off, money begets money. The reason Romney is the top fundraiser is that he has the money to solicit for money. If you can't send out mailers, line up telephone banks, make TV ads and afford big drives for cash you won't get any. If Romney had to start at square one like "normal" people. i.e. those who don't buy their way into the nominaiion, he'd be out on his ass like Guiliaini and Thompson. Also, his loss in Iowa, NH, SC, FL, and humiliation on Super Tuesday is all the more indicative of his incompetence when you figure he has raised and spent so much money. I saw a pundit the other night figure out that Romney, at this point, has spent about a million dollars a delegate. Cash poor Huckabee, about 20k, McCain about 20k (he of course has over 700 now, compared to Romney not yet breaking 300. Who's the better "fiscal manager?".

Next off, as to Romney being able to deny McCain the delegates to win. Let's look at the humbers: CNN currently has McCain at 660, but that's not all the story:
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As of 2:30 pm Eastern time, with almost all precincts reporting, the Secretary of State's website shows McCain leading in 50 of California's 53 Congressional Districts -- a result that would give him 161 of the 170 delegates at stake in Tuesday's primary.

The AP and other delegate counts circulating this morning do not account for this, awarding McCain less than 60 so far. This means that McCain has between 80 (in a worst case) and 100 MORE delegates firmly in his camp than is currently being reported.
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http://www.time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/

What this means is that McCain has at least 720 and possibly as much as 770 delegates RIGHT NOW, with almost 900 (less, actually) still available. Only one person can win, and it takes 1192 to break the mark, so McCain only needs between 300-400 of the 900 left to automatically be the nominee. Why anyone in the world thinks Pennsylvania and other big states left will suddenly forsake the front-runner and give him less than 1/3 the delegates left is just bad analysis. There's no reason for this optimism, but I guess you can go down swinging with Pollyanna scenarios. Just don't expect anyone to take your analysis seriously.

A realist takes the situation for what it is, reassesses and moves on to try to influence events that have not already taken place. Dan is still in the denial and bargaining phase of grief, I guess.

[docweasel]

The other thing i you guys are rooting for a vast majority of Republican primary voters to be disenfranchised, and that's pretty shitty.

[TheSpartan]

"The other thing i you guys are rooting for a vast majority of Republican primary voters to be disenfranchised, and that's pretty shitty."

They've been doing it to democratic voters for years, why not try it on themselves.

[Wahoo Willie Sez:]

"They've been doing it to democratic voters for years, why not try it on themselves."

YEAH, like in the 60s they tried to keep blacks from voting in the south. Oh sorry, that was dixiecrats. OK then, how about when they tried to keep absentee ballots from the military from being counted.....crap, that was Gore. OK help us Sparty, give us an example of repugnicans keeping dems from voting.

[Chris]

"I would speculate that Romney's "major" speech will be along the lines of, no, I may not be Reagan, but I am ready and willing to carry on under his banner."

How'd that speculation turn out for ya?

[docweasel]

heh, bye bye Romney. I already wrote him 3 bye-kus on the dwblog ;)