What Trapped Hillary?

I wouldn't yet count out Hillary Clinton. Apparently she's leading in Ohio by eight points. But she also needs Texas and Pennsylvania and tonight's debate may be her last big chance to change the momentum - something she hasn't been able to do in previous debates. If she can't pull it out, I'd argue there are two significant, if mostly unspoken, themes that all but dictated her losing.

1) She is not a self-made woman, which undermines any authentic claim to be qualified as the First Woman President. She took one page from the Fifties - the loyal, long suffering spouse - and combined it with a post-sixties, feminist narrative, but waited far too long to stand on her own by seeking a Senate seat. She'd be more authentic had she kept up her own career, instead of played Bill's first lady at the state and federal levels throughout most of her adult life.

2) Ironically, at the same time, Barack Obama is getting a pass and, should he win the Dem nomination, will be something of an Affirmative Action candidate. Sure, he speaks well, but has several flaws that would have doomed a white candidate. An awkward political name, past drug use, far too little experience to be president, a too liberal fringe past in Chicago, gaffes - including suggesting attacking Pakistan, an ally. And he and his wife are starting to come off like selfish, self-entitled twits - but the media still insists on giving him a pass.

Ultimately, Hillary finds herself trapped by the very identity politics her party has been using for years to succeed. She can't attack Obama for that straight on and she can't attack him from the right without losing her base. McCain, or any Republican nominee, for that matter, will not be working with those handicaps. If Hillary goes down, when the gloves come off in the general election, I don't expect Obama to be left standing very straight, or long, despite his rhetorical skill.

America never did elect W. J. Bryan, after all.

Comments

[docweasel]

I'm rooting for Hill to take both Tejas and Ohiyah and go all the way to a huge food fight at the convention, which the veteran infighters on the Clinton team would likely win by a technicality, fatally splitting the party and maybe, historically breaking the Democrat deathlock on 90% of the black vote. Obama is unlikely to take a consolation veep spot where he'd be 3rd behind Bill, and have to take the heat for all the Clinton shenanigans that would be sure to ensue in a Clinton admin should she win. Should she lose anyway, he'll be in the John Edwards spot of being tied to a loser, which has never been a springboard to the presidency in recent history. Once you lose, you're out, in the Dem party, and new fresh faces will appear in '12 and '16.

Also, she's the antithesis of everything he's stood for this election season. How can he join her? No, he'd likely sit it out and wait for '12, and take his young, black and white urban professional liberal asshole base with him.

Which would be a good, healthy thing for the entire country.

[IslamoLlama]

"--If Hillary goes down, when the gloves come off in the general election, I don't expect Obama to be left standing very straight, or long, despite his rhetorical skill.--"

Yeah, I'm betting McCain's stirring rendition of "Bomb, bomb Iran" will really bring in the voters. The little lobbyist scandal won't hurt him either, once people are reassured that he isn't the Maverick he once appeared. And then there's the big sloppy kisses McCain likes to plant on Heir BushHitler every chance he gets.

I just don't know how Obama can survive against that, especially in a swing election year with record numbers of Republican retirements, millions of dollars in fund raising advantages, and a highly energetic and mobilized constituency.

"--No, he'd likely sit it out and wait for '12, and take his young, black and white urban professional liberal asshole base with him.

Which would be a good, healthy thing for the entire country.--"

Strangely enough, Obama's base seems to consist not only of the youth vote, but of the veteran Democrats - the Kennedy Wing of the Party - as well as the unsatisfied moderates and independent swing voters. In fact, if the latest polls are accurate, Obama wins support from over half the electorate in a Obama/McCain match-up. So I guess the only question left to ask is why do you hate America?

[chris]

Yeah, them there PROfessionals are traiturs and libruls.

[tally]

i'm in texas and thought about putting my vote up on craig's list. seriously i'm filling my gut with chocolate (don't drink) and crossing over to the dark side to vote. i've decided obama would be more dangerous as president (security and military wise).