The Unpleasant Facts Behind Why McCain Can Win

According to The Politico, the Republican establishment is embracing McCain because he can win in the Fall. He can. But of a few things that might bring him victory in November, the first is unpleasant to contemplate, the second is just plain ugly and the third is well-known.

1) If a major terror event happens domestically, or abroad, pivoting the election to national security, McCain will likely win.

2) Given that the Democrat primary vote is splitting 80/20 for Obama among blacks - and 70/30 for Hillary among whites, should Obama get the Dem nod, there may be enough racism existent among so-called Reagan Democrats to drive them to McCain over Obama in the Fall.

3) Of course, there is always the other wild card - Hillary hate. But if McCain wins in November, the cause will most likely be far more negative, than positive.

I find these factors rather sad, preferring a GOP that can win based upon what it is, as opposed to what it is not. And no one should wish for a major terrorism event.

Comments

[joeb]

I don't think anyone should underestimate the dislike of Hillary and Bill Clinton nationwide. She has 47 percent negatives going in. Of course the Clinton machine will be hard to beat. And there is the possibility that no Republican running for President this year could be elected. As Tom Davis said when he dropped out of the Va. Senate race to replace John Warner quote "No Republican can be elected dog catcher". He is also retiring from the House.
I also liked McCain refusing to go on the Rush Limburger cheese show and saying of Rush quote "There is a strain of masochism in my family but it doesnt run that deep."

[syn]

Well it was 8 1/2 years between the first attack on American soil and the second, both of which came after a Presidential election so I doubt Jihadists will make their move on America in 2008.

Secondly, think about what will happen if Obama loses to McCain. The man is a Messiah to his believers and is far more iconic than Gore; should he lose to the old guy whatever crazy stuff there was towards Bush will be child's play compared to what they'll do to McCain.

Either way I'm voting for our troops and their mission, this all I care about. My vote is for them not the politican, I don't care about McCain, Clinton, Obama, or either Party. I am willing to give up every principle I believe in order to do what is right by our military since they have given their blood for what I cherish most of all, a faith in liberty which is far greater than my own self.

I don't have children to feed, a car to fuel and high property taxes pay, nor do I depend on botox, Hollywood entertainment or the most recent $400 Iphone or X-Box to keep me happy so an economic Liberal wank like McCain isn't going to effect me as much as it will those whose lives will be affected.

At the beginning of this process I did the best I could to GOTV for Thompson, on my own dime and own time; I have no regrets.

Sometimes lesson smust be learned the hard way, it's simply the nature of being.

[Geoffb]

I wonder what happens if McCain picks a fairly young black conservative as his running mate? Say J.C. Watts or Michael Steele.
That would change things I bet. McCain has to know that whoever he picks (if he wins the election) will become the likely successor to his Presidency. Possibly in 2012 depending on his (McCain's) health.

[Dennis D]

America is a moderate center-right nation. John McCain is exactly what the doctor ordered to heal this divided nation. Democrats have 2 leftist horses in the wrong race. Biden or Richardson would have done better in a general election vs McCain. McCain would not have looked so conservative vs those but now vs Hillary or Obama, McCain looks more conservative than he is. This contrast will prove valuable.

[docweasel]

Amen Dennis
Besides that, there are many "negative" reasons a Dem might win: the war goes badly, the economy sours, etc.

Really Dan, is there any trope you won't touch in your sour grapes mode?

[joeb]

I agree. I think McCain will do well against either Hillary or Obama. Why not all us old white men are going to vote for him.

[Yoda]

Massacre McCain, the media will.

[Bill Mitchell]

A win is a win. Doesn't matter if you won because you played great or because your opponent kept fumbing on his own 20.

[Worst President Ever]

First, Obama is doing fine among white voters. He won Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Maine, Utah, Idaho and North Dakota. Those are all states that are majority white by a huge margin. If Hillary had gotten 70% of the white vote in all those states she would have swamped Obama. Southern voters may not be as friendly, but those usually go Republican anyway.

Who knows what would happen in the case of another terror attack. It's just as possible the electorate would see it as a failure of Republican policy and cause a backlash against McCain.

Hillary's looking less and less like the probable nominee.

And spin this one: In 2007, Republican Ron Paul was the top recipient of money from donors in the military, collecting at least $212,000. Barack Obama was second with about $94,000.

[syn]

How is McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy, McCain-Lieberman, against drilling in ANWAR, supporting man-made Global warming, supporting higher taxes, against Big Parma and supporting identity theft for illegal slaves not a moderate left-of-center position?

Compared to his record how is McCain possibly able to be 'more conservative than he is'?

And don't say he's more conservative than he appears because he is pro-life when so many in God's churches are voting for the candidate who supports the practice of partial birth abortion.

Pro-life vs pro-choice is meaningless crap where politicans are concerned, as much as, is the premise 'same-sex union between a man and a woman'.

That said; Ron Paul is crazy like my old Uncle Albert, dude will hand you some LSD to help you see things straight.

[seekeronos]

Hmmm.

Lessee:

(1) Dennis: Good call on Biden, bad on Richardson. Richardson's ideas were pretty far to the left, easily matching Obama if not surpassing him in a few points. One of them was the military deployment in the Middle East, where in so many words, he promised he'd start bringing them home on day one of his (anticipated) presidency.

I'd offer Hillary as the center left-bearing moderate (in comparison to many of the other Dems), although nowhere near being a Lieberman. But Obama and Richardson are definitely out in left field, and Kucinich wasn't even in the ballpark.

(2) WPE, I'd like some of that vicodin you've got going on there. God forbid, if by some chance some terrorist/jihadist incident of 9-11 scope occurred between now and November, the fractured GOP would be galvanized behind McCain, including the stay-at-homers and the right-leaning Independents. Hillary might be able to put on her best man-face and say that she'd unleash the nukes, but I don't think it would be taken with the same degree of authority as it would coming from J-Mac.

(3) Ron Paul generated a bunch of cash. Lots of folks sent in gobs of money. I sent Fred! a lot more money than my wife would have liked, heh.

But how about the rest of the field? There is a considerable part of the military population that is African-American, and would be likely supporters of Obama. Blood does run thicker than politics many times.. and with something like one out every five service members being African-American, it would not be very surprising to see the Big "O" turning out some big cash.

How about adding up the total (R) contributions and the total (D) contributions from the military for this election cycle - and let's see some sources too. I'm interested in this, however slightly.

[LOL]

the rankings of military funding to candidates are IIRC

1. ron paul
2. barack obama
3. john mccain
4. hillary clinton

you don't even get to the wingnut 'defending our freedoms since 911!" candidates until 5. It's too funny forever. If republicans are getting more money from the military it is only because of ron paul, who by far outstripping all other candidates with military donations. But he's the guy you hate the most. In fact, he's the guy who you wingnuts claim has only a constituency of crazies.

It's also you who claim that if i vote for a Democrat or for Ron Paul I am aiding a surrender to terror and I'm stabbing "our troops" in the back. The reality is much simpler. The grown ups are taking away your christmas toys. And that infuriates your childish minds.

[seekeronos]

I have no Ron Paul hate here.

I ridicule a few of his supporters for various reasons, but the core of what Dr. Paul is about, I could get on board with - defending an obeying the constitution, decreasing the scope, size, and general annoyance of the federal government, decreasing taxes in general and scaling back the income tax in particular, and scaling back our military commitments overseas to a much more reasonable and manageable manner.

Of course, this is also tempered by the ongoing war being waged against us by the Jihadists.

As for "the grownups taking away our toys", I'm only infuriated when the government oversteps its constitutional bounds, and tells me that I ought to be happy about it.

The government is neither my father or my mother, in contrast how you Democrats would have it be. It is there to make sure the roads are paved, that certain limited things are standardized, and that there is a legal, solvent currency that is tenderable.

Beyond that, I really don't want to see the creeping tendrils of statism or socialism coming up my back porch unannounced.

[Worst President Ever]

The Democrats are going to hang Bush - 26% approval - and the Iraq War around McCain's neck. And McCain talking about being in Iraq for a 100 years couldn't have been better for the Democratic candidate. He's got to get independent voters to win, and he's doing pretty much everything he can to scare them off so he can appease the conservative Republicans.

Pat Buchannan said that a President McCain will make Cheney look like Ghandhi. McCain's got a real chance to do about as well as fellow Arizonian Goldwater did.

[docweasel]

heh, don't count your chickens, "worst".

This campaign has not gone according to anyone's script and there's 6 months to go even until the conventions and 2 more to the election. There will be a lot of changes between now and then, and Bush will be the last thing people will be discussing, as much as you lefties would like to continue hating him.

Back here on planet Earth, there's a lot of talk about the "Bradley Effect".

I think racism will cease to be such a problem when some people quit complaining about it so much. When professional victim demagogues keep crying about racism keeping Obama down, it makes white people defensive. It also makes them suspicious Obama might put race above the country's best interest. I'm far from saying that's true, but it does give people pause.

This kind of relates to the nativist anti-immigrant hysteria. If people would realize the American Dream isn't a zero sum game or a pie with a finite number of slices where they have to keep defending theirs, there would probably be less racism.

Guess its a Catch-22

[syn]

'nativist anti-immigrant hysteria'

OK docweasel I agree with that anti-immigrant nativists can be hysterical at times however,

what say you about the Illegal Slave Trade occurring on behalf our federal government, global corporations in need of low-cost slaves, quite a few Congress members running for President, numerous country-clubbers who don't know how to clean their own homes or mow their own lawns and racist open-border people who advocate 'Mexican-only' immigration(it's a big world out there so why are not 11 million Chinese given the opportunity to enter the American dream?)

[syn]

My guess as to why Illegal-Immigration advocates will not give 11 million Chinese the chance is because it isn't so easy for the Slave Traders to ship them back back to their country, shipping by sea is more expensive than is walking across a barren desert.

[BobInStamford]

Wow, the base is getting EXCITED for their tortured old man. Lets see if he can keep it together until November. I'm so tired of hearing about his 6 years in some Hyatt in SE Asia, btw. How does sitting on your ass qualify you to do anything??? Oh wait, GW Bush. Never mind, patriots!!

[seekeronos]

What a textbook example of BDS we have in the Boob... and sadly, he does not know anything about serving his country at all, aside from sitting around slurping mochaccinos with his boyfriend while wearing matching Birkenstock sandals.

He's probably all bothered that he can't hang out with his hippie "friends" in Berkeley, but they probably look down their noses at him as being East-Coast white trash.

[Fred Beloit]

LOL, how about the source of this surprising data? And why are you using IIRC (If It Really Counts)? Is this the name of a blog or site?

"the rankings of military funding to candidates are IIRC

1. ron paul
2. barack obama
3. john mccain
4. hillary clinton"

[syn]

IIRC?

Isn't that the name of the celebrity pop band that does worldwide 'Fund the Dictator' tours for stupid people.

[ptg]

I don't know whether to laugh or cry. Can't Republicans ask for a do-over at the convention? Now it looks like our choice in November will be between an overt socialist or a socialist dupe. Wah! LOL?

[chris]

What exactly does being a POW have to do with being 'strong on defense'??? You cons watch too many movies. Heck, even decorated hero and patriot Dick Cheney says that a little torture is ok.

[Worst President Ever]

Democrats are much more energized than Republicans, just look at the vote totals in the primaries where Democrats usually turn out twice as many voters as Republican. There's even more Democrats than Republicans voting in Red States.

Democrats by and large are happy with either Hillary or Obama. Contrast that with the Republicans were conservative leaders like Rush Limbaugh are threatening to vote for Hillary. If McCain has to struggle to get his base to support him, he doesn't have shot in hell at winning.

And here's your info on military donations. More bad news for Republicans.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2007-09-13-military-donors_N.htm

http://ronpauldelaware.wordpress.com/2007/07/16/military-favors-ron-paul-over-mccain/

http://www.capitaleye.org/inside.asp?ID=332

Military Support Goes to Anti-War Candidates (02/03/08, 4:30 pm)
Republican Ron Paul, an outspoken opponent of the war in Iraq, continues to draw the most contributions from uniformed service members, pulling far ahead of the rest of the presidential hopefuls by the end of 2007. Paul raised a total of $213,000, more than twice the amount that opponent John McCain, a Vietnam War prisoner who backs the administration's policy, collected from uniformed service members. Paul's haul increased nearly fivefold between the last two quarters of the year, while McCain's only doubled. And Paul's top three contributors, based on individuals' contributions, are branches of the armed services: the Army, Navy and Air Force.

Democrat Barack Obama, who stresses his opposition to the Iraq war since its start, is still the number-two recipient with $94,000. Obama was also the favorite at the Department of Defense, collecting $14,000 from employees there.

This trend may exemplify growing dissatisfaction among members of the military with the administration's handling of foreign policy, especially in Iraq. By the end of 2007, Democrats had received 40 percent of the total $804,000 in contributions from the uniformed service members, an increase from the 35 percent they had received by the end of the summer. By comparison, in 2000, the last presidential race before the Iraq war began, Democrats received only 18 percent of contributions from the military.

[capitalist infidel]

the whole military gave the most money to Paull was debunked over a week ago. Why do these America hating leftists continue to lie?

[Worst President Ever]

Got a link - or do you just refuse to believe our men in uniform could support somebody you hate - because all those stories used the REAL donation figures.

Oh yeah, implicit in what CI wrote is that anyone that donates to Ron Paul or Barack Obama actually hates America. Way to support our troops.

[docweasel]

Sorta on the subject, McCain picked up a big endorsement from John Bolton today, a very respected and honorable man.

Fair-minded people who aren't blinded by single issue hatred of McCain ought to take endorsements by people of Ted Olsen and John Bolton's stature. To me, personally, these guys are more honest, intelligent and able to look at the big picture and what really matters in a president than _any_ elected politician, including the president, and their opinions should carry some weight for people who are 'on the fence' or doubtful of McCain's intent on foreign policy (Bolton) and the courts (Olsen).

Personally, out of all the people who've worked in Republican admins in the past few decades, I probably respect and trust these 2 more than any others. Really glad that officials of their calibre are on our side. Although I've been defending him lately, McCain is far from my idea of the ideal candidate, but having Bolton and Olsen endorse him makes me feel more and more confident in supporting him.

[seekeronos]

I'll back McCain in a heartbeat if he picks John Bolton for VP... heh heh.

[seekeronos]

Seriously, though... if McCain can pick some right-of-center men of stature among conservatives, his value will go a lot higher and he might draw the estranged conservatives back into the fold.

But those folks must be able and willing to smack J-Mac's hand when it starts reaching for the shiv...

[Chris]

I have to ask, seekeronos, do you work? I'm sure that posting wacky bible quotations and the like all day is 'valuable' to your kind, but do you actually have a job? You know, employment????

[seekeronos]

I sure do have a job, although I just might ask the same question of you and your 537,305 sockpuppets you use here.

Just as I'm sure you've got to pay for that villa you own with all those illegal "brown people" you are so fond of slighting, as well as your posting what droll one-liners and bumper sticker slogans you pass as your "wit" must help your kind as well.

[chris]

So, you were able to get a JOB??? You're lucky America took you in. I would guess that those brown people contribute more than you and your wife and anchor baby but who knows, right??

[docweasel]

I thought you hated Messicans seek? That's why you were a RomneyRooter?

[templar knight]

Uh, Worst, you ought to read your own story, as it clearly says that the donations are from people who work for the military, not the military itself. And the total donations were "miniscule", according to the story you sourced, with Obama receiving donations from all of "44" people. You're an idiot.

The uniformed military, according to the story you linked, Worst, still support the GOP at about 60% compared to 40% for the Dems.

Why did you just outright lie, Worst?

[Templar Knight's Lesbian Daughter]

Dad, stop playing on the internets. My basketball game is coming up soon and I want to be able to watch the cheerleaders warm up.

Oh and dad, the military isn't a person, so it can't contribute. What did mom say about calling other people idiots?

[Worst President Ever]

Please Templar, in your exalted wisdom, explain how the growth of contributions by the military to Democrats from 18% in 2000 to 40% this year doesn't reflect a growing disenchantment among our fighting forces with Republican policy. Also, explain why Ron Paul, another antiwar voice, got the most contributions even among Republicans.

Or is "you're an idiot" the sum total of your reasoning?

"By the end of 2007, Democrats had received 40 percent of the total $804,000 in contributions from the uniformed service members, an increase from the 35 percent they had received by the end of the summer. By comparison, in 2000, the last presidential race before the Iraq war began, Democrats received only 18 percent of contributions from the military."

[docweasel]

well "worst", I'd explain at least SOME of it on the overall downturn of Republican fortunes among the general public, which the Armed Forces reflects. Also, it might have something to do with the fact that the war is going BETTER, therefore people focus more on domestic issues than foreign policy, which favors the Dems.

Here's a nice article by John Podheretz about that very subject:
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/viewarticle.cfm/Special-Preview-br--THE-ELECTION--THE-GOP--AND-IRAQ-11239

[templar knight]

Uh, Worst, you didn't explain your lie, nor did you prove your point, since the very statistics you linked to prove you wrong. Duh! It is obvious you should be much more concerned about your reasoning abilities than mine. You apparently can't read, or comprehend what you read. Reasoning requires you to conquer those two before you advance to the next level. The outright lie you told either shows you to be disengenious or stupid. Or both. I think both.

[Worst President Ever]

Lies? Geez, it's a pretty big stretch to take my comment about "military donations" and turn me into a liar. The quote in the post is explicitly about members of the military. One of the links talks about "military workers". The other two are about members of the military. That's some mighty fine hair-splitting, almost worthy of a Clinton.

[templar knight]

Well, I guess I deserved that, as my comment crossed the line and went into the rude column. In my defense, I had just departed from Atrios, so I was a tad riled. Sorry about that.

[Chris]

$804,000 in total contributions? That's indicative of nothing. Conservatives don't tend to ask more of the military than they're already giving. At least that's been my experience. Hillary, well, we all know she'll take the cash from wherever and evade questions later.

[LOL]

It's great watching the wingers twist and parse to try to explain away why military members feel like donating to Paul, Obama, and Clinton more than any wingnut candidate. You guys have truly become a parody of a movement.

It's too funny forever watching how you blindly refuse to accept what a marginal slice of America you belong to. Fred! Thompson loses and can't even get on the ballot in some states yet he's going to save the party. Rudi Giuliani will keep us safe from the terrists and everyone loves him except he couldn't even win a single state. Mitt Romney will win the nomination now that all the "real" conservatives can coalesce their support behind him. Hmm... none of these things happened. Maybe it's because Americans are tired of your ceaseless hatred?

[scarshapedstar]

"1) If a major terror event happens domestically, or abroad, pivoting the election to national security, McCain will likely win."

And James Lileks will cream his jeans.

BTW, there are no more "Reagan Democrats". They're more like "Lieberman Republicans" now.

[Chris]

LOL,
Hatred? Project much? I thought so. Which party has a major candidate running a southern strategy? Which party's other major candidate says a little genocide is a small price to pay for keeping American troops out of harm's way? Sorry but you'll have to find a better line of attack than accusing people who disagree with your preferred politics of engaging in hatred.

[docweasel]

"It's great watching the wingers twist and parse to try to explain away why military members feel like donating to Paul, Obama, and Clinton more than any wingnut candidate."

Ron Paul is the very embodiment of what a wingnut is. If you put the guy under psychiatric evaluation, he would be found certifiable. He's clinically paranoid, delusional and megalomaniacal.

I'd say that in the grand scheme of things, 800k total donations is a drop in the bucket. McCain pulled in 7 million in one day last month.

[DarthMalice]

Hello friends from Camp Bucca Iraq,Please to the conservatives in this room vote McCain.Yes I dislike him to and know all of his backstabbing deeds,but we need someone commited to win this war and in Afganistan.Obama and Hillary would destroy the military.As for McCain he could do himself some good by coming on the Riehl world and take questions.Dan I hope that the McCain camp if they are smart will ask you to have him on.It might go along way.Guys the bottom line is we cannot take 4 years off fighting Radical islam not to mention the SCOTUS Picks.Yes the GOP /RNC deserves a beating,but now is not the time!

[joeb]

Thanks DarthMalice. I say hear hear to what you say. I live in Virginia and I am now going to get up and go vote for Johnny Mac. For all of you who havent read his book FAITH OF OUR FATHERS I recommend it. McCain has a good sense of humor. I like that. He was a "bad" boy in high school and at the Naval Academy and in the Navy in Pensacola and at the NAS in Meridian,Ms. I like that. His father was an admiral and his grandfather was an admiral. I dont see how anyone from that background could be called a liberal. He is a moderate middle of the road Republican and that is good enough for me. All old white men unite. I think the military would like McCain. I think he is ready to kill some terrorists. And that is what is important to me. Keep them out of this country. Do you really think this country would be safe in the hands of either Hillary of Barack and Roll?

[templar knight]

Again, the posts you refer to, LOL, do not refer to members of the military. They refer to CIVILIANS WHO WORK FOR THE MILITARY. READ THE DAMN LINKS, LOL. 60% of the military supports us. That's more than you have. Can you nutroots even read?

[chris]

"All old white men unite".

Perhaps you should unite and stop acting like libruls and living off the public dime.

[Wahoo Willie Sez:]

"All old white men unite".

"Perhaps you should unite and stop acting like libruls and living off the public dime."

ALRIGHT!! Chrissy at home all day again with typically useless comments to offer.