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Saturday, February 09, 2008

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Not a good idea, unless the GOP becomes the second party of the left.

Starting a third party would only spoil the conservative vote to the Dems... much like Canada had it's center-right party break off into two parties (one conservative, the other moderate, can't remember the names of either at the moment)

I tend to think that working from within the GOP is still the best bet for now.

This is how the GOP got started in the first place... people were sick of the Democrats and Whigs.
http://www.gop.com/About/AboutRead.aspx?Guid=a747a888-0ae6-4441-94f4-2a3a6561f872

I'm not saying that it couldn't happen, but the political climate during Lincoln's day along with the lack of a mass media to "properly cultivate the thoughts of the sheep" was a big factor in the GOP's rise against a powerfully entrenched Washington culture, and a lockdown by the major parties with our "first past the post" system which guarantees that third parties will never enjoy success or serious recognition on the federal level.

Now things could get shaken up if _both_ parties fracture at about the same time. But any disagreements among establishment Dems with populist Dems over the differences between Obama and Hillary are much simpler and less divisive than what we are going through now with the establishment nominee (J-Mac) and what conservatives - easy 70%-80% of the base if not more - want.

It is that small contingent of extremely powerful and wealthy "moderates" who have a disproportionate amount of say over media and the GOP internal processes along with this philosophy of catering to the middle by adopting liberal planks that is going to do us in. I say that this started with Bush's second term in particualr, as a further development of "compassionate" conservatism.

No thanks - I'll take "Coolidge conservatism" or "Goldwater conservatism" (and even the Reagan conservatism parsed for the 30% compromise to get the 70%) over what the neo-cons have served up for our party.

Catering to the moderates and independents should be done with the sole purpose of winning them to conservative thinking, not toward imitating the Democrats, i.e. we don't change much, but we give them incentive to change their ways.

I could see the GOP revitalized if J-Mac takes a horrific landslide, and we come out of the other side of the next election cycle with "Clinton'44 fatigue" or having been through an "Obamanation" since the former is a shrill harpy who would try to cram socialism down our throats with a rough-cut 4x6 beam, and the latter a smooth-talking slickster who is far from being a policy wonk, much less on the same plane as the Clintons were.

2012 could see much promise for a more classically conservative GOP contender following as a backlash to any Dem contender's attempt to swing "hard to port" (far left).

On the other hand, if J-Mac wins, assuming he lasts until 2012... has the potential for completely wrecking the GOP and driving off any conservative support he could muster, leaving the CPAC elites and the moderates foundering.

Really, I think that it is too early to tell, but what Bill Quick is doing could lead to something for Reagan conservatives and like-minded righties to take haven in should J-Mac be the nightmare many of us (myself included) see him as.

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