In reality, after reading about the anticipated changing nature of the race and looking at Geraghty's delegate projections for Super Tuesday, things aren't as bad as they appear in the polls for Romney.
That would put things at about McCain at 500+ (needing 1,191 to be the nominee), Romney at 325, Huckabee at 230 or so.
There are about as many delegates available in what wiki calls Phase Four, after Tuesday, as are set to be contested next week. Combine that with the dynamics potentially shifting to favor Romney after Tuesday, and basically Mitt just has to win the second half, when the pace and focus of the race changes. And he doesn't even have to win it in a complete rout if the delegate projections are accurate.
No doubt Romney has a number in mind for Tuesday as a stop/advance point. I'd sure like to know what it is.
The Captain, a Romney backer, seems to disagree:
http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/016842.php
Posted by: docweasel | Saturday, February 02, 2008 at 11:20 AM
A link is fine Doc - don't need other's posts in my comments. I'm not going to take the position that this couldn't be over after Tuesday - but I and others have looked at the same numbers and draw a different conclusion. It's easy to under estimate the impact of proportional delegates. And it's easy to over estimate the impact of the liberal northeast. Even McCain's people aren't projecting close to the counts at CQ. Part of that is obviously expectations management, but not all of it. If McCain draws 50% to 30% Romney and 20% to McCain shill huckajerk - it's far from a kill, assuming Romney hasn't maxed out on what he'll spend.
Posted by: Dan Riehl | Saturday, February 02, 2008 at 11:50 AM
Romney SURGING like mad!
Great news for Romney today on Rasmussen!
In TN and MO, Romney has SURGED into STATISTICAL TIE with McCain. This is after being down by 9 points last week.
Even better news, after being down 2 points the last few days in the NATIONAL POLL, Romney has surged back into a TIE there too - 30 to 30!
Lol, now compare this to the UTTER BS FOXNEWS POLL that shows Mccain ahead of Romney by 26 POINTS nationally and we are just left scratching our heads.
THE PROBLEM:
As you can see at Rasmussen, the problem is that Huck and Romney are splitting the Conservative vote. By staying in a contest he has NO HOPE of winning, Huckabee gets to be McCain's Ross Perot.
Make me ill. Head to head, Romney would CRUSH McCain.
Posted by: Bill Mitchell | Saturday, February 02, 2008 at 11:53 AM
Bill,
If that's the case in Missouri and Tennessee, Romney could stand to gain at least 70 delegates from those states. If he changes his aggressiveness against McCain by catching him on the lie regarding the withdrawal statement and his "being in the military makes me a great economic leader", he could make a huge dent there. Huckabee's done after Super Tuesday if McCain gets the states that Huckabee was expected to carry (except for Arkansas) but then again, I'm pretty sure there's an illegal deal between the two so that Huckabee steals votes away from Romney. Reason I said that is because McCain is a cheap hack who will do any tactics even if it means passing shit like McCain-Feingold to ensure that imcumbents stay in office with a better chance.
Posted by: Kaitian | Saturday, February 02, 2008 at 12:12 PM
If Huckabee gets only a minimal amount of delegates Tuesday but stays in I think we will know why, sadly.
The Perot analogy is apt and depressing.
Posted by: jjshaka | Saturday, February 02, 2008 at 01:39 PM