Let's Debunk This NRO Meme, Please

John O'Sullivan and others at the corner, Mark Steyn somewhat here, are speculating about Evangelicals not wanting to vote for Romney because he's a Mormon.

If one wants to go there, I'd encourage them to visit all the exit polls via CNN. Georgia, Missouri and Arkansas. Yes, the heavy church attending and protestant groups went big for Huckabee. But there's little if any significant difference as to how they broke for McCain versus Romney. And Romney won regularly over McCain with the anti-abortion group, with Huckabee in first.

Alabama seems to be the exception. But that could be either racial, or perhaps class-based, as much as it is based upon religion, I suppose.

Comments

[docweasel]

So, does Mitt bow out gracefully tomorrow or keep going on a fruitless quest?

RCP here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/republican_delegate_count.html

has McCain 511 / Romney 189 / Huckabee 143. Very rough counting shows about 1100 delegates outstanding with 1,191 needed to win: that means. mathematically, Romney has to take 1000 out of the final 1100 or so to beat McCain, and that’s without Huckabee getting any himself.

All other things said, for having no money or organization and no one in his corner, Huck did pretty well tonight. Even if you hate the guy's politics, you have to respect his campaigning, he did very well tonight. I don't think he played spoiler, it would have come out roughly the same way with or without him. McCain may very well have sewed up up outright tonight had Huck dropped out after Florida. He's got nearly as many delegates as Romney and hasn't spent a fraction of the money. How do Romney apologists explain this?

[Dan Riehl]

Huckabee can't win anywhere but in the deep south - get over it, Doc. You're embarassing yourself.

[docweasel]

Well, that makes him a perfect VP choice, right?

You still didn't address the question: why did Romney fail so spectacularly? All the whining he does about Huckabee being a "spoiler" and the W. Va. maneuvering, there is a term for someone beaten like by these things, with a full campaign chest and unlimited resources, a huge, well-organized ground game and all the conservative radio heads on his side, propagandizing for him all day every day, a stable and photogenic family and a pretty, (relatively) young visage: Poor Politician. He also managed to alienate the winner, so no VP consolation prize.

Huckabee won nearly as many electoral votes as Romney, didn't waste 70 mil of his own money, and is still on good terms with the presumptive nominee: no matter WHERE he won, he's a better politician, even though hard righties detest him, apparently the electorate does not.

[BookLover]

The speculation about Huckabee as a V.P. candidate might be spot-on, unfortunately. In most of the country, however, Huckabee has proved to be the spectacular failure: Wyoming (0%), Utah (1%), Massachusetts (4%), Maine (6%), Connecticut (7%), New Jersey (8%), Nevada (8%), Arizona (9%), California (11%), New Hampshire (11%), New York (11%), Colorado (13%), Florida (13%), Montana (15%), Delaware (15%). Even where Romney loses, he isn't in the single digits, and usually is in the 20-35% range. Of course, very few conservatives are on good terms with McCain -- I'm not sure you can fault conservatives (such as Romney) for that; for years, McCain has been cultivating their disdain with his gratuitous and intemperate insults. Huckabee is to be commended for doing so well in the South (and in Iowa, etc.), but he probably could have done just as well without exploiting the religious issue. I have been a little surprised at how furiously he has been denounced by (non-Mormon) pundits across the country for having done this, which I think is good actually, because Huckabee's graceless shots against a religious minority set a bad precedent for the future. The Democrats don't need the Bible Belt South to win the White House. As the country becomes increasingly secular, it may be that someday conservative Christians start taking flak (in an election) for some of our beliefs. If that happens, we'll all have Huckabee to "thank" for having opened that door.

[seekeronos]

I think the Southron religious meme holds some water, but only to a certain degree:

Romney has the both the Mormon stigma working against him in a sea of Southern Methodists and Southern Baptists, as well as many of the funkier "evangelical sects" (Assembly of God and some of those churches of the snake-handling/holy barking ilk) and even more importantly, the stigma of being a Yankee (Massachusetts elite) who in their eyes, didn't serve in the military and was something of a Rockefeller Republican.

His father George Romney, may have been remembered by elder Southrons (he was much more in league with the liberal Rockefeller faction in the 1960s).

For some of those folks, the total package Mitt brought to the table, his good looks, charm, managerial experience and money and general wisdom are not boons, but things which mark him as not being a "simple, down to earth guy" the way Huckabee painted himself, and how McCain actually is (well, simpleton at any rate... single issue NatSec voters see him as the Second Coming).

[TR]

Why are the Huckster's hissy fits about "negative" ads acceptable, but Romney's noting a back room deal between McCain and the Huckster is called whining. I guess it's all in the eye of the bigot.

[seekeronos]

"--- As the country becomes increasingly secular... ---"

This is generally marked by an even greater trend toward socialism and leftism, which is demonstrably so if the 3-1 turn of Dems to Republicans says anything.

[mad_cow]

Dan, How do you come up with your "I suppose" Alabama's support of Huckabee over Romney could be "racial"? Please explain. (Yes I live in Alabama and I voted for Romney.)

Thank you.

[razib]

But there's little if any significant difference as to how they broke for McCain versus Romney.

so? ceteris paribus they should have gone for romney since conservative activists keep talking about how mccain's a liberal and romney has converted to social conservative. as it is, it isn't ceteris paribus, is it? sometimes it isn't better than the turk....

[Fred Beloit]

Well, doc, it ain't over till..., you know the rest. But clearly McCain (Dole II, Dewey VII, Nixon IV,) is leading. Repubs sure know how to pick 'em. "We followed you before and you lead us down the road to defeat." Senator Ev Dirksen.

[Fred Beloit]

For me and others whose Latin is just a little rusty, from Wiki: "Cēterīs paribus is a Latin phrase, literaly [sic] translated as 'with other things [being] the same,' and usually rendered in English as 'all other things being equal.'"

[Monkeydarts]

From my perch in the Palmetto State I think the great Steyn and others are a bit mistaken. Romney doesn't gain traction in this part of the country because he comes across as a Country Club Yankee. The surprising wins by Huck were because Rush et al have taken the wind out of McCain's sails in the South but the voters feel better about Huck than about some Massachussetts Yankee. So, they reject McCain, Fred's gone and Huck's still there. Mitt doesn't get much of a look. Don't overthink it-- most folks don't care about his religion.

[Gene Callahan]

By 'meme,' perhaps you meant 'idea'? A 'meme' is just an idea with a shiny pseudo-scientific veneer slapped on it. Everyone always knew ideas were transmitted from person to person. Calling them 'memes' adds a fashionable Darwinian aura that has not a shred of real scientific value.

[Wahoo Willie Sez:]

"From my perch in the Palmetto State I think the great Steyn and others are a bit mistaken. Romney doesn't gain traction in this part of the country because he comes across as a Country Club Yankee. The surprising wins by Huck were because Rush et al have taken the wind out of McCain's sails in the South but the voters feel better about Huck than about some Massachussetts Yankee. So, they reject McCain, Fred's gone and Huck's still there. Mitt doesn't get much of a look. Don't overthink it-- most folks don't care about his religion."

And in agreement from across the Waccamaw River..........Dont be handing out our secrets man. Let 'em keep their sectional prejudices.

[seekeronos]

FWIW, from my dusty belfry here in Nerw York...

... country club yankees tend to get bad press up here, too.

[Brian]

The problem isn't a majority of evangelicals. However, the Bible belt divide makes it clear the very right wing Christians rejected a Mormon. If they truly beleived in their cause why else would they throw away their votes on Huckabee. Everyone knows Huck will never be the nominee. Also, consider that several 527Groups connected to Huckabee have been gunning for Romey and they are run by the far right Christians.