Don't Despair Mitt Fans

I'm watching a few places for live results - Mont. called for Mitt - if trends continue, he'll get, Minn, Colo. too. He already has UT and Mass. That's five states and it isn't over.

McCain surging in Missouri btw.

Minnesota called for Mitt.

Mont. called for Mitt I believe??

Colorado looks like his, too.

Comments

[Roy Mustang]

You're embarrassing yourself, Hugh.

[seekeronos]

Lesson learned: Never underestimate the stupidity of the average voter...?

For all the acrimony and irritation at that vile, disgusting backstabbing wretch McCain, he sure did do well in tonight's contests.

But I still think Mitt has a (long) shot with the Phase IV states,provided that Huck can't get as much traction. I think Huck is spent with the Southern states, and unless there is a Huck withdrawal and subsequent delegate dump to McCain... Mitt could still eke out a marginal victory, or force a brokered convention.

[Bill Mitchell]

WTF in California?
Ok, lemme run some numbers by you for California.

1. 62% of the voters were Conservatives.
2. Romney carries Conservatives by 16 points.
3. Early polls showed Romney ahead by 7.
4. Exit Polls showed it tied.

This would lead one to believe that Romney wins the state. But not only does he lose, he loses almost 2 to 1!!!!

How the hell does THAT math work?

How the f*** does Romney win a VAST MAJORITY OF THE MAJORITY OF VOTERS AND lose 2;1?

How???!!!

[docweasel]

I would hope you guys, political junkies all, would know that how many states you "win" means jack. RCP has McCain up 270 delegate over Romney. Unless Romney pulls off a miracle in CA, its nearly mathematically impossible for him to catch up. Although I don't much like Huckabee, I could stomach him as VP, which is all he's going for now anyway, and with support like this he may very well get it, it would be a good move politically, evangelicals (who, it has now been shown, will not support Romney, contrary to assertions of those whistling past the graveyard).

The question now is, when does Romney drop out, immediately, or try to capitalize on a few more states where he's already spent money and could pick up a few delegates, strengthening his rep. But its over guys. Polls had shown him surging, I was a bit nervous, but McCain won where he had to and Huckabee was more competition than Romney, and Huck has shown he is not hostile to McCain, knows he can't win and can be counted on to back McCain in the general (unlike Romney, who clearly detests McCain and has zero chance at the VP position).

Good night, no gloating, just what I expected. The Republicans almost always reward the "next in line", Romney had a strategy to try to upset that, but bungling in Iowa and NH did him in. It was basically over after those stumbles, and Guiliani (the other "establishment" candidate) failure to compete in early states. McCain ended up being more "inevitable" than Hillary.

Now for 8 or 9 months of carping by the far right :p

[Bill Mitchell]

How does Romney win Conservatives by 16 points in CA and then lose the state 2:1?

Please, someone explain that to me!

[Roy Mustang]

Ummm...you do realize the difference a sample and an actual population, right?

In the real voting population, McCain might have won Conservatives.

[docweasel]

a little reality for you Romney dead-enders:
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8UKIOKO1&show_article=1
McCain won 227 delegates to 36 for Romney and 24 for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. A total of 1,023 delegates are up for grabs in 21 states.

Overall, McCain led with 331 delegates, to 129 for Romney and 69 for Huckabee. It takes 1,191 to win the nomination at this summer's convention in St. Paul, Minn.

This is before the California totals, which McCain dominated and will undoubtably pick up the most delegates. So far Romney has yet to win a Southern state primary, and has yet to even finish a strong 2nd in any. So much for the all the talk about how he would do better than McCain in the general. The South is unanimous: it won't vote for a Romney.

RCP gives McCain 550 and counting, specifying he has 60% of the delegates he needs to win by their estimation. Romney would have to run the table to catch up. Huckabee is in nice shape for a possible VP slot.

[jkatl]

How did romney win conservatives by 16 pts and lose 2 to 1 ???

Simple - Early voting.

50 % or more voted early when mcain was up by 15 to 20 pts in the polls. Exit polling only reflects people who vote on primary day. Yea Romney closed the gap in the polls by primary day but it was too late. Same thing happened to Obama to give Hillary Calif. Most dems voted before South Carolina and this whole meteoric rise by obama. Most even before all the dirty tricks by bill and company. Wonder how many dems who voted early for clinton wish thet hadn't same for mccain voters.

I don't think there should be any early voting in the primaries because things change so dramatically in such a short time. I also think all states on the republican side sahould be proportional like they are on the dem side. Mccain won 5 states NY, NJ, Conn, Del, and Ariz that were winner take all. 242-0 delagates versus Romney when he was very competetive in most of those states. If those states were proportionl,delegate split would have been roughly 125 for mccain 85 for Romney. Romney would have been down 40 delegates in those 5 states now hes down 242. 200 more delegates for Romney plus the 18 that mccain and huckabee jobbed romney out of in West Va. and romney would be very much in this race.

[docweasel]

jkatl: woulda, coulda, shoulda?

That's like railing against the electoral college _after_ the election. Listen, its the same rules for everyone going in. Had Romney pulled out Missouri he damn sure would have taken all the delegates. You can't look up a dead horse's ass and complain about the rules after the election: had the rules been different, all the nominees likely would have campaigned differently, so we don't know what Romney or McCain might have gotten.

Also, the whining about W. Va. is just silly. Its politics, not beanbag, as the man said. Romney made himself look stupid there. Huckabee has made it a practice not to directly criticize McCain. Should McCain reward Romney for low-blowing him all month? Do you even know how politics works?

The bottom line is, Romney didn't take a single Southern state, not even close. This certainly takes the wind out of all the Romney lovers who said he was the most viable candidate. If you can't win the South, you're not going to win as a Republican. Southerners hate Romney. That's why he never was going to win this nomination and he would have lost parts of the Solid South for the first time since Clinton won a few, and probably more than a few.

If Hillary is nominated, I like McCain to win. If Obama, hard to call. Could be very tough to beat him with the entire MSM lined up for him with almost 100% positive coverage and a full court press attacking McCain.

It will be interesting. I do think the possibility of a Hillary presidency is very slim, however. She can't even win Dem primaries she had locked up a week ago.

[LOL]

rofl it's over guys. give up

[jkatl]

I think we all better get used to saying President Obama. Feb 5 was supposed to be the coronation for Hillary. Obama wins 13 states, Chuck Todd at MSNBC has Obama winning feb 5 delegates 871 to to 867. Include verifiable super delegates and the overall total is only Hillay + 62 with Obama making that up by Saturday with a caucus in Washington state and Primary in La. He made up a 13 pt deficit in Missouri in one week, went from polling 22% in Mass to getting 40% of the vote to name a few. He clearly has the momentum on his side and is the darling of the media. I think he will win the Chesapeake primary,Va. Md. DC He then will be ahead overall including super delegates. Then I don't think there will be any stopping the Obama express. I think he wins Ohio and I hear his ground operation in texas has been organizing with abandon for a year now. I think time is now on Obamas side, hillary needed to mount a convincing delegate lead by now and she hasnt. Now its back to retail politics with states spread out to a manageable degree where obama can get in front of these folks in the states upcoming. And we've seen that when Obama has time to get in frint of voters he does well. People now know that Obama is electable and they are discovering that Hillary will unite the republican base like no other. Hillary would run over her grandmother to be president but If current trends continue and Obama doesn't have some kind of major slip-up I think the nomination is his. And Obama will crush Mccain. I think by as much as 10 pts.

[BobInStamford]

"How does Romney win Conservatives by 16 points in CA and then lose the state 2:1?

Please, someone explain that to me!"

You 'Conservatives' are a dying minority. Welcome to the 21st century. It's a post-Bush world.

[seekeronos]

Docweasel sounds a bit like our resident troll BoobInStamford with his shilling for McBane:

"--- a little reality for you Romney dead-enders: ---"

Heh, why hold back... how about "flat earthers" or "mouth-breathers" for that extra bit of literary flair?

That said, this is not over yet. Romney has a long row to hoe, and while McBane has "the mighty Mo'" on his side... he should not have so much hubris as to think himself inevitable.

And bear in mind that if McCain *does* win, he will be CRUSHED in the worst landslide in American electoral history by a non-patriotic, non-flag-respecting crypto-muslim who knows how to talk up a golden storm while saying exactly nothing.

And for the Boob:

Conservatism is dead, not by a long shot. It is probably going on vacation for four to eight years to let you socialists have a go at wrecking the nation.

I'll bet you two bits though, that it takes y'all four years to do twice the damage that it took Bush eight to do. :)

[Chris]

Welcome to the 21st century?? The neo-Whigs barely made it into the 20th. Wait until they find out that stem cells are good and guns are bad. The best they can hope for is the Rapture.

[templar knight]

Guns are bad? WTF? Only a nut would say that and mean it.

[Nate Elarton]

It worries me that someone who wants to be president of the United States does not wear a flag, put his hand on his heart, and has a history with being schooled in Islam. Why would he not put his hand on his heart. Should Obama be considered to be the leader of our nation if he does not lead in some basic patriotic manners?