Updated - Alaska: Romney Wins One Last Prize?

Update: Alaska projected for Romney. Interesting - 6 of 9 McCain Feb 5 states were blue in 2004 - see below. I would argue that if your main strength is the surge, coupled with the Dem turn out numbers versus the Republicans and their money advantage, this is not the year Republicans are going to expand the map. Not running as a conservative, anyway. I don't really care who the VP is, people vote for President, everyone will tell you that. Given the facts above - it's very hard to make the case that McCain will be anything other than a sacrifical lamb. He'll be weak in the Republican base states and isn't exactly puilling Obama numbers in the Blue. Hello Clinton II?

We can argue it all anyone wants. In my view, McCain is already toast.

MCCAIN: AZ, CA, CT, DE, IL, MO, NJ, NY, OK - 9 states

ROMNEY: AK, CO, MA, MN, MT, ND, UT - 7 states

HUCKABEE: AL, AR, GA, TN, WV - 5 states

So far, Alaska is looking good for Romney with 28% in. 41 - 22 over Huckabee.

Don't know their full process though. Hope it isn't another combine and conquer affair.

Comments

[jkatl]

I genuinely feel bad for Romney. You could write a book about what went wrong with his campaign. Some mistakes on his part but also a fair amt of bad fortune. Who could have forseen the mormon backlash from evangelicals in Iowa and therefore handing huckabee iowa. Then Guiliani shuts down in New Hampshire to give Mccain that state. Then Huckabee splits the religious conservatives in SC handing Mccain SC. Next Romney peaks too early in Fl. gets blindsided by Mccains timetable for withdrawel lie 3 days before the vote and the unexpected Crist endorsement of Mcain and he goes in the the last three days to up 4 or 5 pts to eventually losing by 5. The complete collapse of the guiliani campaign didn't help in fl either. Now conservatives finally wake up and say OMG Mccain is gonna win this thing. But relig conservatives in the south who hate Mccain don't get it- that avote for Huckabee is largely a vote for Mccain. States across the nation are now voting 65% against Mccain 35 % for but its enough for him to rack up wins. Then we have the situation with Guiliani's campaign manager negotiating winner take all status for NY, NJ, Conn, and Del that was supposed to lock up the nomination for Guiliani. With Guiliani out of the race and Huckabee sucking just enough votes away from Romney, Mccain sweeps for a 192-0 delegate coup against Romney. If those 4 states are proportional the delegate split is something more like 100 for mccain 65 for romney and 27 for Huckabee. Instead of being down 35 delegates your down 192. Add to that the 18 delegates that mccain and Huckabee jobbed from Romney in West Va and were talking a 200 delegate swing. Finally the last salvation California. Romney surges but too late. Early voting where as much as 50 % cast early while mccain was 15 to 20 pts up in the polls gives mccain the 13 pt win. Now romney finds himself down more than 300 delegates and almost all the upcoming contests are NOT winner take all making extremely unlikely to catch up at this point. He should be down less than 100 delegates and if not for the Huckster he would most likely be preparing for the General. A sad story. And Romney is by miles a better man than both Mccain and Huckabee.

[seekeronos]

If nothing else, we must admit that McCain is a masterful campaigner and politician (in the sense of someone who can connive and cajole votes, not in the sense of his policies, or his other qualities as a human being).

With some help from "Lady Luck", or if you will, Divine Providence.

He played Romney and Huckabee and the timing of his endorsements and release of misinformation like a Bobby Knight at a chess board.

As things stand, Ron Paul (out of sheer stubbornness) and Huckabee (camping in the Deep South) will stay in until the convention, and Romney will likely do so to, if he can force a brokered convention by denying McCain the 1,191 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination.

This of course, assumes that there are no pre-arranged backroom deals for Huckabee to commit his delegates to McCain in exchange for the VP slot.

[leilani]

It's quite amazing to read the columns & listen to the talking heads on the morning after, isn't it?

Now all the brilliant TV pundits & smarmy DC pols who've been shilling for McCain wall-to-wall for months are at long last realizing that there's a slight glitch in the game plan they've been relentlessly shoving down our throats: McCain can only win (and not very convincingly at that) in states Republicans don't have a chance in hell carrying in November in the first place. In states which Republicans must win in order to have any hope of winning in November, his showing is shockingly poor.

Oops.

One of the unfortunate but entirely predictable consequences of promoting a republican nominee who more closely resembles a democrat is that you invite a humliating electoral disaster for your party in the GE.

So, for reasons only Rupert Murdoch can divuge, it seems McFox News has successfully coronated the ONE candidate in our stable who was absolutely guaranteed to deliver a 50 state blowout to Hillary Clinton in November.

And the electoral armageddon doesn't happen just on the top of the ticket, folks; the worst consequence of the Beltway Boys' strategy is that down-ticket races will be a bloodbath with Mac as our nominee. We won't be able to get back a majority in our lifetimes.

Just brilliant. Do remind me to send Bill Kristol a thank you card, sometime, won't you?

[Wahoo Willie Sez:]

Geeze you partisans are so quick to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Especially our repub friends who seem to want to throw in the towel and head for the hills. Yes, it looks like we will have a socialist running against a demonrat in RINO clothing. Too bad there isn't a better acronym cause RINO insults Rhinos.Whatever. I suspect that ye who would stop the fight so easily are hesitant to fight for anything. Washington's summer soldiers?

[seekeronos]

McCain needs to start making deals...

Conceivably, he could carry the Deep South with Huckabee, but he would weaken his Western vote substantially.

He could line up with Romney - however unlikely that is give the bitterness of this race - and lock up the West and possibly put a dent in the coastal states, by bringing in hard right conservatives, but risking alienating all those (I)s who showered him with love.

Or, he could pick a non-candidate like Jeff Sessions, Tim Pawlenty, or another person with a high ACU rating... and try gambling with a VP that could galvanize conservatives, if not hold out hope for the VP's run in 2012 (or as someone who will stand up should the Good Lord call Johnny Mac home before his term is up).