As go the Independents and Dems, so goes Michigan. The forecast calls for snow, which could depress the cross-over vote. Still, Michigan will be determined by what Dems and Indies do.
Zogby: McCain +3 (50% Republican voters)
Rasmussen: Romney +1 (70% Republican voters)
Mitchell: Romney +2 (75% Republican voters)
Detroit Freep: Romney +5 (83% Republican voters)
MSNBC/Mason-Dixon: Romney +8 (70% Republican voters)
If the Republican vote gets down near 50%, McCain will romp. Don't be surprised if we have another poll fiasco. Cross-over in Michigan is hard to predict. And don't be surprised if McCain wins the election, but loses within the Republican vote. Lieberman - D wasn't there for no reason today.
Historically, this is a hard call to make — in 2000, for example, just 48% of the Michigan primary voters were Republicans, with an uncontested Democrat primary. That was a result of a large state-wide effort by the Democrats, however, to make Bush lose in order to get back at their massively unpopular GOP Governor who had endorsed W. In 1996, with another uncontested Dem primary, though, Republican turnout was 63%. With a semi-contested Democrat primary this time around, it’s hard to say what percentage of cross-over there will be. My guess would be at least the 63% level of GOP voters, which bodes well for Romney.
We Michiganians are not afraid of a little snow!
As for me, a registered Republican my vote is going for Mitt Romney.
My phone has rung non-stop today, with campaign surveys!
I will be so glad when this is over!!!
Posted by: DonnaInMichigan | Monday, January 14, 2008 at 10:07 PM
Well Kos, Open Left and FDL are all on the Dems for Mitt bandwagon to mess with the outcome.
Soon we get to see what kinda weight they carry into the real world.
Posted by: JustADude | Monday, January 14, 2008 at 10:35 PM
Actually a low turnout favors Mitt. Since there is supposed to be some bad weather the Independents and Donks won't bother to vote. The base will show up and vote for Romney.
Posted by: Capitalist Infidel | Tuesday, January 15, 2008 at 05:11 AM
Lieberman isn't a Dem.
Posted by: TheSpartan | Tuesday, January 15, 2008 at 07:34 AM
Wow, it turns out Spart is a Democraticic big shot. He has the tough job in that party of deciding who is and who isn't a Democratic.
Posted by: Ms Snarky Doucher | Tuesday, January 15, 2008 at 08:27 AM
He wasn't the nominee of the democratic party in his last election, he is listed officially as an independent. Is that good enough for you?
Posted by: TheSpartan | Tuesday, January 15, 2008 at 12:29 PM
Not really good enough for me, no, nor for him, Spart. He calls himself an Independent Democrat (he still thinks the name of the party is the Democrat party. But what does he know?)
Posted by: Fred Beloit | Tuesday, January 15, 2008 at 12:41 PM
"We Michiganians are not afraid of a little snow!"
The prefered term is 'Michigander'. Unless they're female, and then it's 'Michigoose'.
"Lieberman isn't a Dem."
Just like Giulianni isn't an 'R' and McCain isn't an 'R' and Paul isn't an 'R'.
Posted by: rwilymz | Tuesday, January 15, 2008 at 03:22 PM