The Republican Race

The Republican race is a mess, to be sure. I realize Fredheads are pumped because of his debate performance and his new endorsement from Human Events.

We make this endorsement on the basis of much research, having interviewed Sen. Thompson and some of his opponents, as well as examining what they have all said and done. We conclude that Thompson is a solid conservative whose judgment is grounded in our principles.

I'm not downplaying those developments. But they'll only mean something when they resonate in the polls, and if Fred can manage a campaign that successfully engages voters. No one gets to make the rules. They are what they are. If you want to win elections, especially major ones, you have to play the game. It's just a fact. And that brings us to the rest of the field.

I find it depressing, frankly. Romney was an individual who could keep together the Reagan coalition. His campaign has sucked. It still does, as a matter of fact. They have a big cheerleader in Hugh Hewitt. So why is his the only campaign that hasn't effectively engaged the blogs beyond the level of spam? It reeks of a certain ivory tower mentality that's caused them to miss too many things happening on the ground. He ended up looking too negative and not standing for anything. What a waste of resources and a talented man. He has options because of cash. But if he doesn't cash in on Michigan, which could be a long shot now; it's hard to imagine how he goes on.

He could with a national strategy based upon money, air time and airport stops, which is what super Tuesday will demand. But will he? Who knows, his communications are poor and no one believes him when he says he will.

Rudy is broke and his late strategy may have ruined him. He's off the map and struggling to get back in. No one even wants to pay him any attention as he isn't in any timely race. His new, bold strategy turned out to be a big bust. On top of that, even if he's still in, he'll never resonate among a broad swath of the Republican base.

Huckabee and McCain, both loathed by portions of the base, are currently the only games in town. No wonder I'm depressed. I'm not even sure I could hold my nose and vote for McCain and Huckabee is a non-starter. At this point, I wonder if I'll be blogging presidential politics by Fall.

If Romney can eek out a win in Michigan, this may all change. But his going against Huckabee plays right into McCain. That's true for South Carolina, as well. For now, Florida is anyone's guess.

As I see it today, either McCain breaks out and wins the nomination straight up. Or things remain divided into the convention with several people having enough delegates to play. The juries out on Mitt. But if Rudy grabs enough Northeastern delegates, he'll be a player. McCain and Huckabee, and Fred, if he takes off, could be, too. Huckabee should be the odd man out in all that but don't count on it. If he has delegates, he matters. We could see some alliance with him and Rudy going against Fred and McCain.

As much as the base might lean more toward the latter - a Rudy / Huckabee alliance, assuming Huck would take second chair, would probably be the most electable, given the ability to play across the map and hold onto the Evangelical base. I'm not sure McCain has enough to go against a fired up Democrat base in moderate states. After all, his strongest point is the war.

Just some thoughts for now. Many might disagree. But we'll just have to wait and see what Michigan and South Carolina, and to a lesser extent, Nevada, bring.

Comments

[Cory]

Good news for Thompson AND Romney...
http://www.gopusa.com/theloft/?p=639

For Romney...
http://www.redstate.com/blogs/thunder/2008/jan/10/can_romney_take_2nd_place_all_the_way_to_the_nomination#comment-629014

[Teej MacArthur]

I disagree with your negativity regarding Romney and his campaign. For one thing, we seems to have very different responses to listening to him. I don't see negativity, I see positivity and optimism. And apparently I'm not alone, since a number of media after the debate last night referenced his "Reagan-like optimism." Consider his comments on Michigan's jobs. He says we can get them back, McCain says we can't. Who's the negative one there? Regarding his campaign, I'm sure they haven't been pitch perfect always, but can you claim any of the campaigns have been? I don't know about the whole "not interacting with bloggers" thing. That may be an area to work on, but I'm not sure it should shade the entire campaign operation.

[Dan Riehl]

"I see positivity and optimism."

Yes, now. And it's a welcome change I've acklodged previously. I am talking about what cost him Iowa and NH.

[steve poling]

You said, "No one gets to make the rules. They are what they are. If you want to win elections, especially major ones, you have to play the game."

I think that although no one gets to make all the rules, successful candidates often manage to win by shaping the battlespace and defining his enemies so that in responding, everyone plays HIS game. It seems very clear to me that Mr. Thompson has made it clear he's not going to pander to MSM. The Republican base hates the MSM. Frankly, Mr. Thompson's position on the polls six months out or six weeks out is really quite irrelevant. It's election day that counts. He seems to have adopted a strategy of laying in the weeds until the last possible moment then engaging the battle with greatest energy. The narrative after the debate last night was, "why didn't we see this from Mr. Thompson earlier?" I think the answer is that IA and NH are not major concentrations of Republican primary voters, but SC is.

[LOL]

"So why is his the only campaign that hasn't effectively engaged the blogs beyond the level of spam? It reeks of a certain ivory tower mentality that's caused them to miss too many things happening on the ground."

ROFL are you kidding me?

Con Blogs are notorious for being useless for winning elections. This is why you haven't been engaged. You aren't significant because you are out of touch with America.

"miss too many things happening on the ground" Puhlease. You guys aren't reporting any of what is actually going on in America. You haven't a clue. You haven't for years.

[Fred Beloit]

Say, LOL, don't I recall something about a nutroots blogger trying to get his favorite pup elected in Connecticut? Case, Krouse, something like that. How'd he do?

[Steve]

How can any conservative vote for Romney?

He was listed as one of the top ten Republicans in Name Only by Human Events Magazine.

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=11129

What will he be after the primary?

And would he be another George Bush if he gets elected?