Voting starts at midnight in a very small northern New Hampshire town. We won't really know much of anything until tomorrow night.
On the Republican side the McCain surge seems to have peaked, no one knows where Independents and undecideds are going. The best bet is many will go Dem for Obama. The safe play seems to be a McCain win, though not by large numbers. You can also make a solid case for Romney pulling it out. If McCain does lose, it'll be because of his late debate performance and his predicting a win in the race. It's rarely done and NH voters tend to not like for anyone to predict what they're going to do. I'm hearing as small as a two point split in some late polls. If true, Romney's ground game could make that up.
Win or lose, Romney goes on - not so for McCain. With Huckabee rising in South Carolina and Michigan, McCain is finished, no matter what. The only exception would be a huge win for McCain - not likely to happen. Fox News did have a news-ish report about a poll that's been right since 1980. It's a poll of school children which reflects what's going on at home in this regard. That poll had Romney winning. Take it for what it's worth.
I see McCain or Romney in first and second separated by from 3 - 5 points. Huckabee does a little better than expected based upon some church folk turning out but doesn't reach 20 percent, more like 15 - 20.
On the Dem side I think Obama closes big and Hillary realizes another double digit loss. Edwards does nothing special expectations-wise - 15 - 18 percent and his future candidacy is in doubt. He's already a distant third in SC. I'm not sure if he can get public money to go on. If he does, as usual with government spending, it'll be a waste.
You can scan the polls at RCP and make a call for yourself.
"I see McCain or Romney in first and second separated by from 3 - 5 points ..."
So, either McCain will win or Romney will win ... wow, I am so impressed by this blog post.
Posted by: Calder | Monday, January 07, 2008 at 11:43 PM
"I am so impressed"
Oh, I see. You'd rather I just guess. Gee, that accomplishes a lot. I guess right, brilliant. Wrong, I'm dumb. Sorry, I'd rather just play it straight. Fact is, if you read all these pundits in the MSM who make predictions, they couch them so much, they say nothing more than I did right out front.
Now if you could only get over the silly notion that I blog to impress you. Here are two concrete answers: I don't and you won't. feh
Posted by: Dan Riehl | Monday, January 07, 2008 at 11:52 PM
H/t SuitablyFlip
That weird 1st to vote in NH small town midnight vote
It's five minutes after midnight on primary day In Dixville Notch, NH, and the polls have just closed. Casting their votes were 2 Democrats, 3 Republicans, and 12 unaffiliated voters.
Stay tuned for the totally inconsequential results...
Update:
Republicans:
John McCain: 4 (57%)
Mitt Romney: 2 (29%)
Rudy Giuliani: 1 (14%)
Fred Thompson: 0
Democrats:
Barack Obama: 7 (70%)
John Edwards: 2 (20%)
Richardson: 1 (10%)
Hillary Clinton: 0
Posted by: JustADude | Tuesday, January 08, 2008 at 12:21 AM
Hoping beyond hope that McCain gets his win... and then gets eaten alive in MI and NV, and then passes his delegates and endorsements to Fred!
Heh. I can dream, neh?
Posted by: seekeronos | Tuesday, January 08, 2008 at 12:32 AM
Hart's Location, New Hampshire
Democrats
Obama: 9
Clinton: 3
Edwards: 1
Republicans
McCain:6
Huckabee: 5
Paul: 4
Romney: 1
Posted by: JustADude | Tuesday, January 08, 2008 at 12:50 AM
Is it true that unidentified people came in to N.H. on Tuesday to vote and caused the polls to be off.
Posted by: f m hand | Wednesday, January 09, 2008 at 07:07 PM