Hot Air headlines links to a new SurveyUSA poll claiming to show McCain up by 5 over Rudy, 25 - 20, with Romney at 19.
But there's an interesting bit in the polls internals. Twenty percent of respondents have already voted. Within that sub-group McCain is up 31% over Rudy with 25%, Romney at 19%.
However, among the eighty percent that haven't voted, McCain is only at 23%, Romney at 20%, and Rudy at 19%.
It's fair to include the 20% that drives McCain's number up. But the significant difference with those who haven't voted suggests McCain's numbers wouldn't hold up if the voting were today. Either a very high percentage of McCain supporters vote early - perhaps seniors and military voting absentee? Or McCain is actually losing support over time for some reason.
watching the wingnuts cover this race has been and will continue to be thoroughly amusing. First the wingnuts seemed to gather around Fred! and believed he would carry the day. After they soon realized that no one else was excited by him (and no one was listening to them) they are now starting to coalesce around Romney, with some vague pathetic hope that Giuliani will reinvigorate his campaign.
Posted by: LOL | Monday, January 21, 2008 at 06:13 PM
someone please tell me one state primary which mccain will win a MAJORITY of voters!?!?
or, if that's too hard: tell me one in which he gets a plurality of GOP voters.
Posted by: reliapundit | Monday, January 21, 2008 at 06:33 PM
he already won NH and SC...
Posted by: LOL | Monday, January 21, 2008 at 07:19 PM
LOL: R U DENSE R AN IDJIT?
mccain has not win a MAJORITY in any primary. he "wins" but only with 33%.
that's what we call a plurality.
mccain has not yet won a MAJORITY of gop voters - and his pluralities includes many ind and dems; HE WOULD NOT WIN HIS PLUALITIES WITHOUT DEMS AND INDS.
WHY?
he doesn't represent gop values; he's a lib.
Posted by: reliapundit | Monday, January 21, 2008 at 09:15 PM
Er, to be a slightly less passionate reliapundit...
LOL, he won pluralities of people who voted in the Republican primaries in NH and SC. reliapundit was asking when McCain would win a plurality of registered Republicans, which I'm fairly sure he hasn't done yet.
Posted by: Math_Mage | Monday, January 21, 2008 at 11:07 PM
thanks math.
i took his moniker LOL to be an insult to me and let 'em have it with both barrels.
i'd like to know when mccain will win a state with an outright majority.
he hasn't done this yet - or since 2000 when he did it ONCE.
i'd like to know when he will just even get a plurality of GOP voters.
the GOP mustn't nominate someone who can't win more than 50% of any state, and can't even get a plurality with just GOP voters.
we cannot count on dems the way joementum counted on the GOP against lamont.
Posted by: reliapundit | Monday, January 21, 2008 at 11:37 PM
rofl, you let me have it with both barrels? More like you misfired like Sir Bullingdon's first shot.
Your attack was just some semantics about majority vs plurality. That was your best shot? Please, in your first post you said "tell me one in which he gets a plurality of GOP voters". I answered.
He'll likely win in FL too which is a closed primary. I love it. Your choice candidate Fred! can't even place ahead of Ron Paul in some states, and yet it is McCain who is distasteful to conservatives. Just like how I know you guys are out of touch with regular America, it seems you are also out of touch with mainstream conservatives here. A truly pathetic accomplishment.
Posted by: LOL | Tuesday, January 22, 2008 at 02:02 AM
LOL, it´s Lord Bullingdon. Not Sir.
I´m not as down on McCain as some, in fact I kind of like him. But I think both Giuliani and Romney would make better presidents and perhaps better candidates. Smarter, younger, far more experienced in the real world.
I do not trust McCain on his supposed strength, foreign policy. I will not trust a politician who supports international law (the icc, the lost) to a degree that he will curtail American sovereignty and put it in the hands of generally hostile bureaucrats and foreign nations. His instincts there are just wrong. Yes he is good on Iraq but he is not the only one. And he keeps telling us he met lots of foreign leaders. Well, so did the Queen of England. I don´t think McCain gets the big picture. And without the foreign policy rationale, what´s left? A McCain presidency does not look promising.
Posted by: el gordo | Tuesday, January 22, 2008 at 11:42 AM
LOL:
"semantics about majority vs plurality."
that ain't a semantical diff.
the terms have different meanings.
is english your third language?
mccain has not won a majority anywhere - not in any pres primary since 2000.
mac hasn't won a plurality of GOP voters anywhere this year.
before you make a nasty comment about me, why not look up the meaning of the words you use.
Posted by: danny | Tuesday, January 22, 2008 at 05:24 PM