Updated: Record Turn Out In NH?

Update 3: Over playing the Independent effect.

Allah at Hot Air and Bob at CY are considering how the surge in Dem voting might benefit Mitt. I think Mitt was coming on and reports suggest a lot of optimism on his end. But there's also reason to be cautious of over-reading the Indie effect. The most professional polls via RCP screen for that effect by pre-qualifying respondents as to which party they are intending to support in the primary. The polls that did this favored McCain, the one which appears to not have done it had them closest.

I'd still rate Mitt's chances as good as he appears to be splitting Indies with McCain. But the same report claimed McCain was winning among Republicans. If Mitt pulls it out, I think it will have more to do with his late surge, as opposed to any new Obama effect. The polls would seem to already account for the ones Obama stole away from the Right. And big picture, that's still a bad thing for Republicans in general when it comes to the general election. If Obama mania doesn't end, the R's could get stomped.

Update 2: Unsurprising perhaps - but confirmed -- the increased number of ballots is primarily on the Dem side.

The New Hampshire Secretary of State's office is in the process of locating extra ballots to ship to towns that have expressed concern that supplies are running low. The concern is primarily on the Democratic side, officials say.

Via Drudge: Somewhere Hillary is crying. This could be a complete disaster for her.

Secretary of State is making runs to Seacoast – Hampton, Portsmouth – and Southern Hillsborough – Pelham, Nashua – to bring extra democratic ballots. Many towns are reporting shortages... Developing...

Update: Some tips on the exit polls as they start to come out tonight. h/t Glenn

Hmm. What could this mean?

Louis Gosselin, Ward 6 moderator, said election officials expected about 150 people to vote each hour at St. Pius X on Candia Road.

Instead, about 300 people each hour were casting ballots. By 8 a.m., 602 people had voted. About 70 new voters were registered.

The most likely interpretation is a big Obama wave. If that precinct is indicative of the state and it's much ado about Obama, Hillary could end up losing so significantly that the negative speculation about her campaign will only grow.

It's hard to imagine much of this has to do with McCain. His support has been solid but was reported to be peaking. And while Romney may have been coming on, I wouldn't expect anything on this scale. He'll be lucky to win by a few points, if at all.

Keep talking about that national campaign Hillary, you're going to need one come February 5th.

Comments

[JustADude]

"Secretary of State William Gardner is projecting a turnout of 500,000, up from the record of 396,000 set in 2000. Officials expect 260,000 Democratic ballots and 240,000 Republican ballots to be cast, a reflection in part of shifts of Republican voters to independent status and of independent voters toward Democratic candidates in recent elections. In addition, it’s the first contest since 1928 that neither party has had a sitting president or vice-president seeking the nomination.”

Via CQ Politics

[seekeronos]

Interesting stuff.

If this is a harbinger of what to expect for Tsunami Tuesday, Hils might want to think about sending feelers to Obama's camp about nodding out in exchange for a VP slot in the Obama campaign.

That might save face for Hils, and send the ambulance chaser home in the long run.