A new Insider Advantage poll has it 23/22 McCain, but that doesn't mean anything. Prior to Fred dropping out, McCain recently led Florida by from 1 to 8 points. Averaging four polls post Fred, it's Romney 25.75, McCain 22.5. And the complete RCP average is now a dead heat - 24.4 - 24.4.
Somehow I doubt the New York Times endorsement is going to help.
* The previous and recent IA poll had it Romney 24, McCain 18. Making what I can out of the internals already available, IA's Jacksonville area sample dropped from 16 to 11 percent of the poll. The Panhandle stayed about the same at 16 percent. Tampa Bay dropped from 26 to 21. Orlando went up from 17 to 20. Palm Beach/Miami went up from 14 to 23. South Tampa dropped from 11 to 1 percent.
The Palm Beach/Miami rise in respondents is probably part of McCain being up 1, instead of down 6 comparing the two polls. McCain seems to carry the area overwhelmingly at 32%. At the same time, Tampa Bay and especially Jacksonville are Romney strengths, they both dropped. But IA isn't really being location specific enough to be sure of any result. These are rather large areas. But those areas are driving the two different IA results, as opposed to any shift in voters choice.
At this point, perhaps only the various campaign's internals, God and Michael Barone know where this thing clearly stands. From one report I heard last night, the Romney camp has seemed optimistic, FWIW.
I know lots of people on the right don't like John McCain for several different reasons, and I consider myself amongst them. But one reason I haven't seen mentioned at length is this: McCain will dumb down conservatism.
Rather than go into some lengthy discussion about why I think this is so I will refer anyone reading this post to Ronald Reagan's 1964 speech called "A time for choosing." After reading this speech, for anyone who isn't familiar with it, you will see the stark contrasts between the vision of a true conservative and someone who wants to "dumb down conservatism."
Here's the link: http://www.reaganlibrary.com/reagan/speeches/rendezvous.asp
Posted by: Coffee260 | Friday, January 25, 2008 at 10:11 AM
A good indication of where the campaigns internal polling #'s might be McCain's full-bore assault on Romney we're seeing this am. Mitt's clearly got the mo, which could only have been helped by his sparkling performance last night which was well-received across the analytical spectrum.
Certainly McCain could not have been much helped by his lackluster and, dare I say it, even elderly demeanor where rather than answer questions directly with any intellectual vigor of his own, he suggested his DC cocktail party circuit acquaintanceship with obscure figures from the 1980's should serve as a substitute for any intelligent response on his part. "I can't answer that question on economic stimuli myself, Tim, but I've known Warren Rudman since 1978. Rudman's a good friend of mine." Huh? LOL!
Posted by: leilani | Friday, January 25, 2008 at 12:50 PM
The nyt endorses MacAss should be the kiss of death.
How about Romney and Hunter as P & VP?...
Posted by: serfer62 | Friday, January 25, 2008 at 02:08 PM
I live in Tampa. I've gotten non-stop calls from Romney, Guilliani and even a pro-Huckabee push poll. No McCain. I've heard Romney and Gulliani radio ads. No McCain. He's probably going to turn it on this weekend and the next week. So all these polls don't take into account he's barely trailing in a state he hasn't really done any campaigning in yet, while the two other guys have been hammering it.
Not saying that's good or bad, just a Floridian's observation.
Posted by: McLovin | Friday, January 25, 2008 at 02:48 PM