Michelle Malkin has some relevant background on Michigan, McCain and Romney you should read. There are some unique considerations to take into account as regards Michigan this time out. Also, the polls may prove to be an issue, again.
There is no race on the Dem side. Democrats and Independents can and will vote in the Republican primary. How special for McCain and even liberals in Huckabee's Evangelical base is that? It will also likely throw the polling models off.
Democrats do have the options of changing stripes for a day, by requesting the Republican ballot, or choosing "uncommitted" on the Democratic ballot when they go into the voting booth. The Obama and Edwards campaigns are urging their backers to do just that.
Bottom-line, any home field advantage for Romney is likely to be countered by the above. So, as it is winner take all by Congressional District, Romney would be smart to pick his shots. Assuming he's serious about going all the way to the convention, he might scoop up a fair share of delegates but lose the popular vote. McCain and Huckabee have some real advantages going in that counter the conservative Republican grass roots base.


Comments